model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Mark wheeler]

Ukmo this afternoon . 

[Captain Shortwave]

The weather actually looks decent in the south this week (Mid twenties during the middle of the week), any fronts looks pretty weak too so not too much rain (but of course cooler across northern and western areas). The post above shows this nicely, pretty warm with some sunshine for most.

The thing that will pick up interest, especially with a potential low forming to the south west of the U.K. is the heat developing across Iberia during this week.

Just to put it into perspective, this is the GFS prediction for Friday…

If the pieces fall in line there would be the risk of quite exceptional heat pushing northwards to effect areas away from the Mediterranean, where the high temperatures looks very widespread.

Edited August 8, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[mb018538]

12z runs have no interest in the cut off low we saw on the 00z runs. Much cooler and more unsettled.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z operational shows quite a decent spell across most of England and Wales during the second half of the week with largely dry and warm conditions with sunny spells..could be worse!  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Hi gang..finally got my dad released from Hospital after 3 days...thats cheered me up,as his last fall kept him in for 4 weeks. So feeling better right now,and thanks to those who gave me some kind words.Much Respect.

Some decent weather on offer at times next week as Karl above points out...more fittingly just look at the 12z deeper in fi....it kind of hints at those improvements many are taking about come the final 3rd..

Hope you all keep well,and thanks for the top grade updates  

Edited August 8, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Frosty.]

As Matt said, the Gfs 12z op looks more summery during late August which I would settle for to be honest!...ps, glad to hear the better news about you’re dad...all the best mate.  

Edited August 8, 2021 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

No threat of any cold air on today's GFS 12Z operational run. It's nae looking super-settled, though:

    

    

    

[Frosty.]

Looking further ahead to late august, for sure there are better signs from the GEFS 12z mean for our weather to become more settled which is reflected by an increasing number of nicer perturbations...my hope is that late august will at least mean we end summer on a high note rather than a bum note!!!! fingers crossed! ...small sample below!

 

Edited August 8, 2021 by jon snow

[Mike Poole]

I’d urge caution in looking too far ahead at the moment, here’s the UKMO, GFS, ICON and GEM at T144:

There is uncertainty about the relative juxtaposition of the upper trough (colours) and the surface low (contours) here.  Which for me reads, models haven’t nailed it at this timescale.  Matters because it is so close to the UK.  

Go on to T240 with GFS and GEM and they couldn’t be more different for our neck of the woods:

Edited August 8, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

I like the look of the Gem 12z longer term...it’s turning into a GEM  

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168, this one takes the upper trough well south west, heat poised.  Incoming?

[Frosty.]

How often does Greenland get a plume! ..this is followed by unusually warm Atlantic air to the u k! ... ...interesting! 

[Mike Poole]

ECM last two frames, T216 looks like might be going with the GEM, T240 something different again.  This pattern has very high uncertainty and I’m unsure of the situation at T144.  The focus is on where the trough is, but the heights ahead of it are weak and I think that is where the uncertainty is, charts:

[Mike Poole]

ECM ensembles spread at T168:

The trough is evident, but what it is pushing up against is not, and this is the thing with this emerging evolution, there may be a trough out west, but there’s precious little heights over or to the east of us to benefit from it for any length of time.  

T240:

Again trough position good-ish (encroaching), any ridge ahead of it very weak.  

Very uncertain situation, looking good for a warm up in the south next week, but beyond that we will need to see the T144 charts today firm up big time to predict the way into the last half of August.  

Edited August 8, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

Well, the GEFS 12Z temperatures look like trundling along nicely . . . If we are in line for the 'coldest August for many a year', the cold air will need to get its skates on!

    

[MATTWOLVES 3]

24 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM ensembles spread at T168:

The trough is evident, but what it is pushing up against is not, and this is the thing with this emerging evolution, there may be a trough out west, but there’s precious little heights over or to the east of us to benefit from it for any length of time.  

T240:

Again trough position good-ish (encroaching), any ridge ahead of it very weak.  

Very uncertain situation, looking good for a warm up in the south next week, but beyond that we will need to see the T144 charts today firm up big time to predict the way into the last half of August.  

Tbh Mike the only time those graphics are gonna be appealing to me is in December when those colours will be indicating 850 temps....you know what I mean

[summer blizzard]

Still an attempt to cut off west of the U.K. but still indecision as to how that happens and how phased with the jet stream this becomes.

 

 

[DAVID SNOW]

On 08/08/2021 at 21:40, summer blizzard said:

Still an attempt to cut off west of the U.K. but still indecision as to how that happens and how phased with the jet stream this becomes.

 

 

lots to be decided , but thankfully, the i told you so and crystal ball back slapping has gone now.

Nice August weather for the South next week.

[damianslaw]

16 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Still an attempt to cut off west of the U.K. but still indecision as to how that happens and how phased with the jet stream this becomes.

 

 

Long way off but that last chart doesn't bode well for any sustained warm settled spell setting in through mid August, looks a repeat and rinse affair as others have commented on, trough once again wanting to make a beeline for the UK. It's been the pattern of the summer, indeed the year as a whole, punctuated by drier settled spells.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

31 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

lots to be decided , but thankfully, the i told you so and crystal ball back slapping has gone now.

Nice August weather for the South next week.

It wasn't just some of the posters on here talking about big improvements come mid month..(me included) but some of the pros as well! And I'm gonna make another prediction which may come good....those improvements will be coming along towards the 19-21st of the month if that's the case....only a week out! 

Better next week compared to recently,but I'm confident of much better come the last 10 days....im not gonna pat myself on the back,but I may get someone else to do it for me...

[Allseasons-Si]

I will do it for you @MATTWOLVES

we may have to wait for a pattern change mate as looking at the latest anomaly charts we are placed on the wrong side of the hp cell of which is located/forecasted out to our west...

cpc and EPS 

it would be such bad luck if these charts where to materialize but i cannot change the weather nor can anyone else for that matter and i do hope for some improvements as we trawl through this month,...things can change so here is hoping for an improvement in the NWP'S

and looking at the tactile ens from EPS there is a clear/marked sign that the high will be to our west(red)

a final note,...it hasn't been a bad summer here(sorry for the IMBY),...you win some and you lose some,...a typical GB summer i would say...

chins up guys,we are heading for winter soon and i cannot wait for a good blowout in here,...it really brings the other side out of me,...prompto!!!

ONE LAST BLAST OF HEAT PLEASE this year,...cheers

take care all,...goodnight.

 

 

  

Edited August 8, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Methuselah]

There'll be no problems temperature-wise over the next sixteen days, should the GFS 00Z be anywhere near correct:

    

    

    

[Man With Beard]

Aside the increasingly promising outlook for the UK next week, according to the ECM this morning, the ECM is also forecasting a serious attempt on the European temperature record, with 48C modelled around Seville this weekend.

[Frosty.]

I would settle for this!  

[mb018538]

On 09/08/2021 at 07:47, Man Without Beard said:

Aside the increasingly promising outlook for the UK next week, according to the ECM this morning, the ECM is also forecasting a serious attempt on the European temperature record, with 48C modelled around Seville this weekend.

ECM overly optimistic again this morning by the looks of things. So hard to predict conditions when you have patterns like this.