model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[MATTWOLVES 3]

44 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

But the ECM  which I am sorry, I cannot  post, is horrible. 

I wouldn't say horrible..even the chance of a plume towards the end...where is that cut off low going!

I'm not sure where this is going to be sitting amongst the ens..it looks a pretty strange NH set up...Heights into Greenland,a low centred  to our SW,and another small low just of Iceland coupled with low Heights over scandy! Seems very much a complete mismatch of events that could have been drawn by a toddler.

Just to take a glance at the NH profile at day 10..wow there is a multitude of things going on there.

Edited August 5, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Zak M]

2 hours ago, Zak M said:

I'd say the 12z GFS is pretty good this evening. Would be very warm in the SE if this was to verify. 

Interested to see where the OP sits in the ensembles.

It was at the top of the pack but not necessarily an outlier.

There still could be the chance of some warmer (and perhaps settled) weather for southern areas next week.

Edited August 5, 2021 by Zak M

[Frosty.]

I think it’s fair to say the models are showing a changeable outlook with a trough / ridge / trough / ridge pattern...actually, the ECM 12z operational doesn’t end badly at all, at least across the south! ......as for the GEFS 12z, to me it indicates a typical north / south split beyond the initial trough domination...so, the south at least could have some predominantly decent weather towards / during / beyond mid month and of course none of this precludes another burst of summery weather like the Gfs 12z operational shows approx mid month...but I think the word CHANGEABLE is the best way of describing the outlook period...anyone agree?  

[Frosty.]

There really isn’t a clear settled signal when you look at the GEFS 12 mean in the mid / longer term, there’s clusters of very unsettled and much cooler members at one end of the scale, and some nice anticyclonic members at the other end with a mix of meh members too...anyway, here’s some of the good ones! ...don’t worry, I won’t show the crap ones..I’m not Dr.Evil!

 

[Methuselah]

The GFS operational run isn't too unrepresentative of the ensemble:

    

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Firstly folks there is quite strong support amongst the EC46 ensembles for conditions to be quite unsettled again come end of next week and into the Weekend...I would say a reasonable chance of Low pressure being the main influence to our NW.. 

There is some good news though,pressure looks to increase from the SW by the 3rd week...early signs just yet,but could we possibly manifest ourselves a decent shout at a summary Bank Holiday! I think this solution is most definitely possible with perhaps our best chance of rising pressure moving into the early September period. Fingers crossed.

The signs are there tonight of much better conditions come the final 3rd,with a greater push from the Azores High! One to watch and to hope we can partially save this distinctly average for many Summer.

Edited August 5, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Uncertainty]

59 minutes ago, jon snow said:

I think it’s fair to say the models are showing a changeable outlook with a trough / ridge / trough / ridge pattern...actually, the ECM 12z operational doesn’t end badly at all, at least across the south! ......as for the GEFS 12z, to me it indicates a typical north / south split beyond the initial trough domination...so, the south at least could have some predominantly decent weather towards / during / beyond mid month and of course none of this precludes another burst of summery weather like the Gfs 12z operational shows approx mid month...but I think the word CHANGEABLE is the best way of describing the outlook period...anyone agree?  

Yes Karl, perhaps ‘very unsettled’ for a time here in the NW for the first time in quite a while. Then as you say changeable for a time whilst the next low approaches, the destination of which remains very tricky for the models to decipher. 
 

Regardless, this spell next week was also dubious, still some confidence in a better 2nd half from the EC46

W2 1/2

W3 1/2

 

Although outliers, the 12z GFS and ECM do turn more settled from day 9 onwards, but both look like they could be transient and are not well supported by their ensemble sets.

 

I wouldn’t get to excited just yet mind if you’re after a proper summery spell. The latest NOAA, as @mushymanrob has alluded to, is neither monsoon nor heatwave

For serious high pressure spells in the U.K. I have seen so many go bust I tend to look for strong ensemble and op model agreement across the board for 2-3 days with NOAA fully on board. It seems like a lot to ask but said method has served me well over the years. We haven’t got that level of agreement yet, and some significant water to go under the bridge in the meantime, so it’s a watching brief for now...

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening all

Just commenting on the 12z gfs as it's a peach of a run and i hope it's right here by Fri the 13th

i have spotted why it gets the Azores hp cell in to the UK a lot quicker and better than any other models

the secondary low at 144 hrs S Greenland phases with the SW Iceland low by 192 and pulls it further NW allowing height's to build in from the SW,none of the other models phase this secondary low and the knock on effect is that height's build in between the two lows and the parent(Icelandic low) barrels towards the UK,this is just an observation and it may be wrong but something to keep an eye on in later/subsequent runs...

gfs,...please be right,...praise the lord

 

 

[danthetan]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

Evening all

Just commenting on the 12z gfs as it's a peach of a run and i hope it's right here by Fri the 13th

i have spotted why it gets the Azores hp cell in to the UK a lot quicker and better than any other models

the secondary low at 144 hrs S Greenland phases with the SW Iceland low by 192 and pulls it further NW allowing height's to build in from the SW,none of the other models phase this secondary low and the knock on effect is that height's build in between the two lows and the parent(Icelandic low) barrels towards the UK,this is just an observation and it may be wrong but something to keep an eye on in later/subsequent runs...

gfs,...please be right,...praise the lord

 

 

That is simply a variation on the theme, that low pressure will cross the country, possible few days high pressure before it does.

[bluearmy]

the handling of next week trough still presenting some issues on the ops as they jump clusters - ukmo day 6 is now a stall but it looks isolated (ec about 25 mins away) and it’s ukmo day 6 which continues to anecdotally display poor continuity compared to its day 5. 
 

expect we will know how changeable and unsettled next week will actually be by Sunday. 

[ANYWEATHER]

Spot the difference from the gfs output from now to this time next week, !!!

[Frosty.]

I think it’s fair to say parts of the Gfs 0z operational resemble autumnal and it does look a generally unsettled outlook but again there’s an improvement into the last third of august but that’s way into FI. Apart from that the best on offer is transient ridging and a modicum of warmth from time to time further SE. Looking at the situation generally, I think next Tuesday could be the driest day during the week ahead and the south coast of England could become the driest part of the u k during the next 7 days or so?! ? ⛈  

Edited August 6, 2021 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

The ECM 0z operational isn’t without interest, there are a couple of occasions when troughs become slow moving to the west enabling some scooping up of much warmer continental air ahead of them, the question is whether there would be enough sunshine to take advantage of the very warm uppers (850’s)????...so, for sure there’s plenty of heavy, thundery showers indicated but also some fine spells, overall it doesn’t look particularly cool unless you’re stuck under persistent rain for any length of time and there are a few much warmer / more humid opportunities along the way? ⛈ ? 

 

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

I've tried to remain positive this summer, and up until mid-July, at least for more northern parts, the summer was generally pretty good, but there's no way to sugar-coat the latest output from both main models, the next two weeks (at least) looks dire if you're after genuine summer weather i.e. full days of blue skies and warm temps. The set up is about as bad as it can be - a large trough anchored across the GIN corridor throwing an endless stream of depressions across the UK, pushing any ridging attempts by the Azores high to our south, and keeping any high pressure to our east firmly blocked over eastern Europe.

Unfortunately we are currently in a period where anyone looking for a return of proper summer is looking well beyond the next two weeks, which of course takes us towards the back end of August, and whilst late August / early September can bring very nice weather, it doesn't bring scorching long hot days or true heatwaves. If we were going to see any more of those types of weather, it needed to be happening in the next two or three weeks, and it looks like that can now be safely written off.

[mushymanrob]

On 02/08/2021 at 11:32, mushymanrob said:

Well this will go down like a lead balloon (again)

But the current NOAA 8-14 day mean does not confirm some of the ops high pressure dominated outlook.  Whilst a couple of days early next week MIGHT be warm and summery, if this chart is correct (and it usually is) then any settled summery spell will be short lived.
The culprit is the building Scandinavian high, which wasnt expected, a feature that large and strong will shunt the Atlantic energy further South, over the UK instead of allowing it to exit to our North/Northeast.
For the period 9th - 15th, the mean upper flow is a moderate Westerly, but at least theres no strong negative pressure anomaly... to me this suggests pretty normal, average, unsettled but not overly wet for the mid month period.
Any route to sustained warmth/sun/heat would need the Scandinavian high to build Southwards and Southwestwards , and/or the Azores high to ridge to join with the Scandinavian high. This has been shown on a few operational runs, but currently the Anomalies do not support that, and until/unless they do - its not happening.
Now currently, its only one run, so to be more certain of this tonights and tomorrow nights runs would need to confirm this pattern.... and the "nay-sayers" will ignore this largely because it doesnt confirm their preferred weather type.
I want more dry sunny warmth/heat... i love it, but these charts do not support that in the next 2 weeks other than the aforementioned transitory ridge.

Sadly, its looking like this is going to be pretty accurate. And all week in one way or another (slight daily adjustments) theres been a moderate upper westerly flow predicted over the UK and there still is.

Ive never known the ops pick up a strong feature, be it an anticyclone or a deep mean trough that becomes reality *in the 6-14 day timeframe* if its not picked up be the Anomalies - hence "unless/until they pick it up, its not happening" . That doesnt mean the Anomalies are always right, and indeed things can evolve within the 0-6 day period, and do, so will be missed by the anomalies. But whatever the ops show in the 6-14 day timeframe id suggest is highly unlikely to happen if the NOAA charts dont support it.

Now this rather average unsettled outlook has not been welcome by those of us who predicted more warmth next week - and that includes me ! - but its how it is.  I like these charts because it lengthens that timeframe of accuracy, and they prevent being lead up the garden path by believing in more fanciful operational run outputs - to a large degree anyway.
As they use 2 or 3 (differing on different days) Ensemble suites to create this mean, they do all the investigative work for us. Theres no need to trawl through the ensembles to work out what they are suggesting.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Sadly Mushy I have to take a bow and say those noaa charts have been by far the more accurate and steadfast. So do keep up the good work with them.

Output is poor guys if your looking for something resembling a Mediterranean spell of conditions. Far to many troughs stuck in the system with perhaps the occasional drier day mixed in.

Last nights EC46 hints at a settling down by the 20th,and today's GFS potentially backs up that outcome with a strong build of Heights towards day 14. But guess what last nights 12z was hinting at something similar next week,with that possibility being dropped like a stone...no surprises there then!

I've spent far to much time chasing my weather dreams since last November,and tbh I do put a little to much passion into it at times,and it kind of leaves you feeling deflated when it goes wrong....which often it does.

On top of that the recent situation at home as a carer,and my father's downwards Parkinsons problem leading to numerous falls(back at the hospital again yesterday) its time for me to take a time out,and concentrate on more pressing things.

Hopefully guys back for the Winter chase,and don't rule out a better spell of Weather towards the end of the month and early September.

Enjoy yourselves...life is for living.

[Penrith Snow]

Good luck Matt, hope things improve for you and your dad soon.

[Allseasons-Si]

I actually quiet like the UKMO at 144 hrs and the latest 06z gfs has the low further west than the previous run,...cross and hope the we are on to something here.

Edit:just seen your post @MATTWOLVES^^

take care of your Dad mate,...life is more important than the weather.

Edited August 6, 2021 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op is..erm, erm, yeah..not much else to say really!  

[damianslaw]

Anyone wanting to see an exemplar filling low pressure system.. the next 4 days show a perfect one. Alas not a scenario you want to see Friday-Monday early August. 

[JayAlmeida]

1 hour ago, jon snow said:

The Gfs 6z op is..erm, erm, yeah..not much else to say really!  

The GFS runs are looking really bad today from start to finish. They seem to have backtracked on the HP domination we saw over the last few days (especially FI range). The 00z GEM and ECM are looking way better but any sustained HP is past day 7. 

The model output is really struggling to predict a consistent improved pattern for mid month and beyond. 

Edited August 6, 2021 by JayAlmeida

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, jon snow said:

The Gfs 6z op is..erm, erm, yeah..not much else to say really!  

Oh dear 3 weekends in a row with low pressure overhead, if these model outputs verify. As I've said many a time never a fan of August. Watch it settle down come September, so often the case..

[Guest]

26 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Oh dear 3 weekends in a row with low pressure overhead, if these model outputs verify. As I've said many a time never a fan of August. Watch it settle down come September, so often the case..

You almost can’t make up how bad some of the output is. We know august can be poor but this is right up. This would an absolute disaster, my reckoning we only had two really decent weekends all summer, the one straight after the Euros started on and the one when the July warm spell got going. Must of had at least 6 if not 7, 1 or 2 out of 10 weekends down here which is probably driving increased negativity around how summer has been perceived. 

[Frosty.]

My usual positivity has taken a severe shellacking in the last 24 hours but I’m still holding on to the hope that sustained summery weather could still fight back before august is over?..once it gets to around mid September, frankly I don’t give a damn!!  

Edited August 6, 2021 by jon snow

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

GFS 12z has been marked for the recycle bin. Summer is well and truly over if this run verifies. Northern blocking right where we dont want it.  August quickly turning out to becoming one of the poorest in the past 20 years of poor Augusts.  Hopefully an outlier