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Model output discussion 11th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

We are seeing true beauty for those of us who want to walk the long road to winter.

GFSOPEU12_240_1.png

GEMOPEU12_240_1.png

ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Following a period of trough domination, the GEFS 12z mean indicates we may catch a break from the unsettled weather during the second half of next week, especially further south...next week May not be as bad as some hope..  !  

8BE80224-5740-4476-BDA1-FEAED35DFEF9.thumb.png.ee10d87e90767518bd9bd1c9a4c67720.pngC73B02F6-0688-4B14-A064-002FDC08E83A.thumb.png.5ca3d004dec4e7f09fa6df90924cee42.png119D0613-B93E-49BC-A689-37F8AA4DD6FA.thumb.png.24fd9c733439b4c700436e2cad0dfaa0.pngB39FCD9B-C87D-4A58-9381-0019729C8CFE.thumb.png.0cdbaea35ffe8a4159fc52c8eabf6c5f.png57F0260D-6D5C-4FDD-8FF6-0EF47841EC66.thumb.png.94be992d1091187158091d30a11f727e.png439E9D26-6282-4645-8115-9FD88592EB0E.thumb.png.9e7fcc9a5d2ca26736005765e20e9330.png00756C52-7416-4199-8E84-70D5B0C615F5.thumb.png.bb5db2533729109bffc0794c5fb4a23c.pngC0F76680-C37E-4348-B74F-1DB51D3D7001.thumb.png.520ddd4f28f4a1d0204e6acd733f90f2.pngE2AA5DB8-33C9-42E6-A379-8D014DBF5DA5.thumb.png.440001cecdf98d8984dc662d62eb3aea.png485CA566-8DAA-44D7-8D44-166AA91B08C1.thumb.png.18814293608436650a5c29be4656105a.png

 

Edited by jon snow
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
14 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Following a period of trough domination, the GEFS 12z mean indicates we may catch a break from the unsettled weather during the second half of next week, especially further south...next week May not be as bad as some hope..  !  

8BE80224-5740-4476-BDA1-FEAED35DFEF9.thumb.png.ee10d87e90767518bd9bd1c9a4c67720.pngC73B02F6-0688-4B14-A064-002FDC08E83A.thumb.png.5ca3d004dec4e7f09fa6df90924cee42.png119D0613-B93E-49BC-A689-37F8AA4DD6FA.thumb.png.24fd9c733439b4c700436e2cad0dfaa0.pngB39FCD9B-C87D-4A58-9381-0019729C8CFE.thumb.png.0cdbaea35ffe8a4159fc52c8eabf6c5f.png57F0260D-6D5C-4FDD-8FF6-0EF47841EC66.thumb.png.94be992d1091187158091d30a11f727e.png439E9D26-6282-4645-8115-9FD88592EB0E.thumb.png.9e7fcc9a5d2ca26736005765e20e9330.png00756C52-7416-4199-8E84-70D5B0C615F5.thumb.png.bb5db2533729109bffc0794c5fb4a23c.pngC0F76680-C37E-4348-B74F-1DB51D3D7001.thumb.png.520ddd4f28f4a1d0204e6acd733f90f2.pngE2AA5DB8-33C9-42E6-A379-8D014DBF5DA5.thumb.png.440001cecdf98d8984dc662d62eb3aea.png485CA566-8DAA-44D7-8D44-166AA91B08C1.thumb.png.18814293608436650a5c29be4656105a.png

 

I'm starting to doubt those means a little right now mate...Two many ops are throwing that spanner in the works regarding later next week! Perhaps later this month we still have hope,going on Longer range output,and the thoughts of Tams and Exeter for instance.

Bugger it I'm still gonna pitch that tent in the backgarden,just to annoy the neighbours if nothing else..

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7 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I'm starting to doubt those means a little right now mate...Two many ops are throwing that spanner in the works regarding later next week! Perhaps later this month we still have hope,going on Longer range output,and the thoughts of Tams and Exeter for instance.

Bugger it I'm still gonna pitch that tent in the backgarden,just to annoy the neighbours if nothing else..

I think we are pretty much back to where we were five weeks ago, the decent weather persistently 10-12days away and not getting any closer. As I said previously the models are playing silly buggers trying to build heights from the south west multiple times only to over read the signal and allow for troughing to slide in. While not wet here yet this month could be very poor indeed. 
 

Also I’m not a fan of the mean, especially in the medium range, 3 or 4 big outliers with high pressure parked out east will drag the mean to make it look like the pressure pattern is improving from the south west. In fact the day 10 mean average chart for the entire summer period would probably look like that. ie a weak ridge over the south, south west. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Yeah, I did say a number of days ago that until any settled weather appears at under a week away then it’s fraught with danger. As @Tamarahas detailed, Global patterns now simply don’t really support a big NW Europe ridging pattern as we enjoyed in mid to late July. GEM and GFS don’t even really have anything settled at all now in the 10 day range, which is really disappointing. Even a temporary ridge for a couple of days would be nice!

The only positive of us sliding back into a Nina pattern is that is boosts our chances of a decent winter, if that’s your cup of tea!

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
20 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I think we are pretty much back to where we were five weeks ago, the decent weather persistently 10-12days away and not getting any closer. As I said previously the models are playing silly buggers trying to build heights from the south west multiple times only to over read the signal and allow for troughing to slide in. While not wet here yet this month could be very poor indeed. 
 

Also I’m not a fan of the mean, especially in the medium range, 3 or 4 big outliers with high pressure parked out east will drag the mean to make it look like the pressure pattern is improving from the south west. In fact the day 10 mean average chart for the entire summer period would probably look like that. ie a weak ridge over the south, south west. 

You make some good points tbh,I've always been of the belief that the ops handle the 5 or so day period well,due too higher resolution (etc) with the means coming in as more of a useful tool beyond this period. (ie) multiple runs all starting from slightly different starting positions! But even so like you rightly point out,the means can also be misleading at times...miss Reading of the signals and various excessive ensembles picking up that average more.

Even though I've been bigging up a much better spell for some time now,I'm feeling that perhaps this one may not come off...sorry to be negative guys....but I would not be at all suprised to see a much better period backend of the month,start of September! But I'm not gonna overly commit on it this time around.

And yes you will very often see the weak ridge close by too the SW when you view the long range EC46 mean.

 

Edited by MATTWOLVES
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
29 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I think we are pretty much back to where we were five weeks ago, the decent weather persistently 10-12days away and not getting any closer. As I said previously the models are playing silly buggers trying to build heights from the south west multiple times only to over read the signal and allow for troughing to slide in. While not wet here yet this month could be very poor indeed. 

I still think there is a reasonable shot at something more summery towards week 3/4 of August, though its very possible that it even ends up into very early September. Its also worth noting that it won't IMO be a wall to wall sunshine jobbie either, and we may see a pattern of breakdown/HP growth, just for that 1-2 week period it will lean more HP than we've seen most of this summer.

I've been saying for a few days now that the GFS in particular was being too aggressive in bringing in a drier pattern for the 10-12th onwards, I think we are probably going to have to wait at least another 7-10 days on, and if there is delayed tropical activity it may well extend even further IMO.

Sadly for us in the south its been a summer of feeding of scraps really.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

My message would be, don’t give up on summer!!!..certainly give up on the England cricket team but NOT on summer!! ...if anything, the GEFS 12z mean improves further beyond mid month and there are some stunning perturbations...all I can say is, hope I’m right to be optimistic about summery weather returning...time will tell!! ☀️

38FD4669-465B-424B-B9D3-9DBDE854F418.thumb.png.f0cdd0f880b2986c9eedba38e28cb569.pngA714201E-080F-4E63-B50A-36D0FFA49513.thumb.png.9c574d4b9572c34043c8782336918f92.png3B82C70F-1369-41BD-85F5-F2F0539B1A19.thumb.png.9f965284fb255f1f32f852a5530f8a15.png8383D36E-474B-4BEF-AB4F-DCF93C3E6BC4.thumb.png.99620ef0c82e8f0be70c7e5d190eec4f.png540A43C8-F95E-409B-BA8A-A0DDB2CC68F3.thumb.png.61706e6b64b961f1820b660d7607a8c2.png3D7C34B0-232F-4C0D-9CC6-924F9C99A846.thumb.png.09baddcfdf316a06671b745223989f04.png20FFC954-4A4E-4815-A06D-49B12BE02C75.thumb.png.247db0d2e32772793b667433292f5c2b.png29648C17-45C8-4FEF-B662-551FD08B78AD.thumb.png.cd01712a99f73abb7ca5634c64d40107.png6433757E-8E0C-4F9E-8751-A6BCF05D06D8.thumb.png.2830c4ec60bd8f4533372d2aaba7e059.png9CE3E89F-0FA0-436D-B9A1-E6E98DFDD3A5.thumb.png.af8873d16f3f6a4b46ed5adb7878e466.pngA2B8F69C-05BE-4ACA-AE8B-1D5A621B2D0B.thumb.png.1e4674adf61b38bd9304f2e3928e61d0.png75C3C585-3A9B-41C3-A664-55F1421F2E14.thumb.png.a26068b51faaa002f8b6c993245d45e6.png1F6627DD-6A1C-4822-9B34-606A2064A4F4.thumb.png.b6a7b8601c5eaaac5fbd78b3ea2edf2e.png764705AD-1BC7-474C-B1CB-45D0CCB72092.thumb.jpeg.39505d6a00cbb71150843d7fbab2ef87.jpeg

 

7B34CBCD-8F00-4966-B4AF-AB3F105402A5.png

Edited by jon snow
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

ECM continues to provide potential for some very warm weather and settled weather early next week it might not be durable but we would take it. The area of uncertainty is highest with this area of low pressure it’s behaviour will be critical. Models tend to struggle a lot in these situations so don’t take anything as a gospel.

006A7FF2-25F7-4D26-BC8D-7814CA82A0DD.thumb.png.3236b63a6355e02031607845c5061066.png767AC59B-432B-4701-924E-7E4117368D6B.thumb.png.9790fae4924367a7328590d6a6a396a0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Good ECM this evening if you're looking for some warm / very warm weather. Even wafting up some warm 850s at the end.

image.thumb.png.f3bfaff80e96c48cf607163dcba2b4ab.png   image.thumb.png.2cebd3b686f1dd61acbd2d17b674f0e2.png

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, stodge said:

Evening all

image.thumb.png.954bbe94fa9b18aeea6afd76861fb93f.png

Do we call that a "Greenland plume" ?

That isn’t possible!

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

That isn’t possible!

What happens is a plume of air from the Azores HP is carried north and gets cut off as LP develops behind it. 

I've never seen anything like that on a chart - just thought it was worth a mention.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, stodge said:

What happens is a plume of air from the Azores HP is carried north and gets cut off as LP develops behind it. 

I've never seen anything like that on a chart - just thought it was worth a mention.

It could only ever happen on a gfs run! 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

You make some good points tbh,I've always been of the belief that the ops handle the 5 or so day period well,due too higher resolution (etc) with the means coming in as more of a useful tool beyond this period. (ie) multiple runs all starting from slightly different starting positions! But even so like you rightly point out,the means can also be misleading at times...miss Reading of the signals and various excessive ensembles picking up that average more.

Even though I've been bigging up a much better spell for some time now,I'm feeling that perhaps this one may not come off...sorry to be negative guys....but I would not be at all suprised to see a much better period backend of the month,start of September! But I'm not gonna overly commit on it this time around.

And yes you will very often see the weak ridge close by too the SW when you view the long range EC46 mean.

 

After just having watched the latest MetO 10-Day Trend, and looked through the latest GFS run, I think I'll hang-up my beach towel?!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

After just having watched the latest MetO 10-Day Trend, and looked through the latest GFS run, I think I'll hang-up my beach towel?!

They seem very keen on that Low pushing SE later next week and sustaining the unsettled conditions Pete.. but tbh barring the plume event last month,they've been very much out of kilter with there forecasts...a lot of pushing things back and re wording of warm then hot conditions. With very low confidence being branded very frequently! Only goes to show how difficult it is to forecast a 10 day period and especially beyond in the UK.

I think the ECM is OK though,and it looks warmer,but for me...UNCERTAINTY is the key word this evening..YET AGAIN!

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

A few hints of something more settled next week but far from universal agreement.

I've heard so many people tell me "there's going to be a big heatwave in the second half of the month" it must either be true or everyone's been reading the Express or Mail.

One hint I think we can be looking for is a resumption of tropical activity in the lower Atlantic and off the North American coast - if we get a hurricane which stays further out to sea before re-curving that can, so to speak, give the Azores HP a "push" towards the British Isles and NW Europe.

In any case, injecting some energy into what is currently quite a still North Atlantic can often trigger a push of heights to our advantage - not always - and sometimes ex-hurricanes aren't our friend but more often the not, we benefit from the energy redistribution in terms of building heights over us or close by - one of the reasons, I'd venture, why we often get fine spells in mid to late September for example.

With the NOAA continuing to forecast an above-average season, it may be we'll be looking for charts such as this:

image.thumb.png.505c1b55382753287253671791723077.png

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

After just having watched the latest MetO 10-Day Trend, and looked through the latest GFS run, I think I'll hang-up my beach towel?!

It agrees with the anomaly charts i posted then? 

 

Lol

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

They seem very keen on that Low pushing SE later next week and sustaining the unsettled conditions Pete.. but tbh barring the plume event last month,they've been very much out of kilter with there forecasts...a lot of pushing things back and re wording of warm then hot conditions. With very low confidence being branded very frequently! Only goes to show how difficult it is to forecast a 10 day period and especially beyond in the UK.

I think the ECM is OK though,and it looks warmer,but for me...UNCERTAINTY is the key word this evening..YET AGAIN!

i dont agree.. its pretty much certain that its going to be pretty average with an unsettled, but not strongly so, westerly pattern. 

Thats what the noaa charts have been suggesting. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
8 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

i dont agree.. its pretty much certain that its going to be pretty average with an unsettled, but not strongly so, westerly pattern. 

Thats what the noaa charts have been suggesting. 

Well stone the crows mush...I never thought I would see the day when you didn't agree with me 

My main point was the uncertainty regarding where Low pressure may end up next week.

Edited by MATTWOLVES
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM mean and spread looking a fair bit more positive for those in the South at least here at T240:

899170C8-AEC5-4D7A-A358-9CFDEC2E1056.thumb.gif.b4f576e3514c188efbf78ee994ca8232.gif02B8C32B-0A08-470A-8A6C-5AAB7C4480BD.thumb.gif.f05b6b362d990709e75129e780e37b32.gif

Good chance of highish pressure hanging on in the south, but the main message from me is that this is not sorted much earlier say about T120, so wait and see. 

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Just now, MATTWOLVES said:

Well stone the crows mush...I never thought I would see the day when you didn't agree with me 

You know me Matt , i go with the noaa despite what they show and its often not what i want. 

But after several years of using them, i cannot deny their usual accuracy. 

 

Remember... i want warmth, i want heat, 30c until xmas would suit me fine. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

You know me Matt , i go with the noaa despite what they show and its often not what i want. 

But after several years of using them, i cannot deny their usual accuracy. 

 

Remember... i want warmth, i want heat, 30c until xmas would suit me fine. 

No problems Mushy...just one thing letting you down though! You need a little more modest confidence in your ability

Only joking mate..

I think your pushing the boat out with 30c for Xmas...its a struggle in July...and let's not upset the cold chasing crew just yet

Edited by MATTWOLVES
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