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Model output discussion 11th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

No reason to discount a settled and warm/hot spell at some point second half august. next week has always looked uncertain with a lack of ens agreement across the models ……there is still the chance that the southern half of the U.K. could see a good week but currently changeable with a general better the further se you are. 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The difference is 0C - i.e. snow potential!  In March the chance of proper snow recedes into the distance, unless exceptional synoptics (2018).  Whereas September can give and give in terms of summer like weather, it just isn’t quite as hot and the days are shorter.  I’ve always said to anyone wanting to arrange an outdoor event well into the future, when asked the question when is the best chance of fine weather - second week in September!

Yes on average early-mid September often delivers a fine spell and temps can easily climb well into the 20s.. the sun still packs a punch and for outdoor activities as a whole September is probably the most agreeable month. Humidity drops and less chance of heatstroke, sunburn, dehydration added to that is the change in colour in nature and better light quality. However, it's a far cry from the wonderful feeling of May and June, headiness of July and August or the sweet optimism of April.

Back to the models, something of a change in the offing, a broad westerly pattern as we move into next week.. not something we've seen much of this year so far.. but also not surprising, very typical for August to bring westerly airstream. Temps average at best, indeed I can't see 25 degrees or more being achieved for a whole yet. Quite similar to how first part July planned out. Turning into a very topsy turvy summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GEFS 00Z ensembles don't look at all bad:  t850Bedfordshire.png   prmslBedfordshire.png

                                                                             t2mBedfordshire.png   prcpBedfordshire.png

                                                                 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.0b81f82e3fda532568b6e36108d1e5b4.png

image.thumb.png.1c3c72ec07589ef83deeb210dfc1547b.png
 

Absolute horror story from the ECM and GEM today. One or two half settled days before we’re back to rain and gales by day 9-10.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
34 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.0b81f82e3fda532568b6e36108d1e5b4.png

image.thumb.png.1c3c72ec07589ef83deeb210dfc1547b.png
 

Absolute horror story from the ECM and GEM today. One or two half settled days before we’re back to rain and gales by day 9-10.

Bloody hell when bluearmy mentioned the ecm being more amplified i thought he meant more amplified in terms of higher pressure over us!!!thats just frikkin ghastly at day 10!!thank god its day 10 though!!

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56 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Bloody hell when bluearmy mentioned the ecm being more amplified i thought he meant more amplified in terms of higher pressure over us!!!thats just frikkin ghastly at day 10!!thank god its day 10 though!!

So did I lol. It’s an absolute disaster! Not sure there’s ever been a really good august after a terrible May-July and zero threat of that happening this time around looking at the output. 
 

Can only hope for a relatively mild and dry winter period now to make the dark season less bad. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

So did I lol. It’s an absolute disaster! Not sure there’s ever been a really good august after a terrible May-July and zero threat of that happening this time around looking at the output. 
 

Can only hope for a relatively mild and dry winter period now to make the dark season less bad. 

Late summer and early autumn is often unsettled in a La Niña year sadly. Once it starts going downhill in August, it rarely recovers... think 2017. Good news though is that late autumn into winter is often drier with a higher chance of colder conditions.

Although I bet all it would take is a hurricane to mix things up a bit and help deliver something more August-like.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

The 6Z op brings that trough further to the North of the UK than the ECM op does. And once again it really does not get the backing of the mean! Worth baring in mind the means are the averages of multiple runs,so a better guideline for the more extensive period! So the situation perhaps still needs to be kept under consideration for later next week! But at this stage still know real backing for the operational evolutions!

gfs-0-204.png

gfs-0-222.png

gens-31-1-192.png

gens-31-1-228.png

Edited by MATTWOLVES
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Not a bad GEFS 06Z this morning if, like me, you find endless blue skies a tad boring, and the resulting sunburn uncomfortable:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Edited by Mapantz
Moving discussion on
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On 04/08/2021 at 12:34, Ed Stone said:

Not a bad GEFS 06Z this morning if, like me, you find endless blue skies a tad boring, and the resulting sunburn uncomfortable:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

 


 

The first chart is just cool and showery, the second is a complete washout, the third would absolutely give you sunburn way out in FI…….

Maybe a something of NW/SE split on the 06z but little in the short term after today to look forward to unless you like cool, showery and blustery. 
 

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Regarding the above I'm going to stay out of any debate regarding how bad conditions have been...for me personally they've been bang on average at best! For some in the South they've been very poor,and more the so,especially being as these are the areas that you would expect to be getting the warmest and driest of the conditions. On the other hand some of our Northern members are probably wondering what all the fuss is about so far this Summer! With plenty of summery type conditions since June,and going on latest Exeter guidelines....perhaps another bite at the cherry too.

And just to sum up the UKMO take on things this morning...We are looking at a largely unsettled period from now through till Sunday. Heavy and quite widespread showers forming,which could give localised large totals! Perhaps less in the way of showers come the latter part of the Weekend,as a ridge develops from the SW.

Early next week should see a settling down of conditions under that ridge,with some areas receiving decent sunny spells,and I would have thought quite warm. There are hints of Low pressure bringing further spells of unsettled conditions towards the end of next week and if this comes off,then the Weekend could end up quite poor! I'm not totally convinced of the exact location of that trough though! Further North would mean the South remaining largely fine...further South would result in the North faring better! So still open to debate.

As ever more runs needed

Anyway I'm about to pitch my tent in the back garden...thats my idea of a staycation this year! The weather and the pigeons better behave

00_72_500hpa_height.png

00_96_500hpa_height.png

00_120_500hpa_height.png

00_144_500hpa_height.png

00_168_500hpa_height.png

Edited by MATTWOLVES
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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool
1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Regarding the above I'm going to stay out of any debate regarding how bad conditions have been...for me personally they've been bang on average at best! For some in the South they've been very poor,and more the so,especially being as these are the areas that you would expect to be getting the warmest and driest of the conditions. On the other hand some of our Northern members are probably wondering what all the fuss is about so far this Summer! With plenty of summery type conditions since June,and going on latest Exeter guidelines....perhaps another bite at the cherry too.

And just to sum up the UKMO take on things this morning...We are looking at a largely unsettled period from now through till Sunday. Heavy and quite widespread showers forming,which could give localised large totals! Perhaps less in the way of showers come the latter part of the Weekend,as a ridge develops from the SW.

Early next week should see a settling down of conditions under that ridge,with some areas receiving decent sunny spells,and I would have thought quite warm. There are hints of Low pressure bringing further spells of unsettled conditions towards the end of next week and if this comes off,then the Weekend could end up quite poor! I'm not totally convinced of the exact location of that trough though! Further North would mean the South remaining largely fine...further South would result in the North faring better! So still open to debate.

As ever more runs needed

Anyway I'm about to pitch my tent in the back garden...thats my idea of a staycation this year! The weather and the pigeons better behave

00_72_500hpa_height.png

00_96_500hpa_height.png

00_120_500hpa_height.png

00_144_500hpa_height.png

00_168_500hpa_height.png

Summer aint been too bad up here and during the decent spell in July it was blue skys all the way for about 7 days. Feels like the overall impression of a good summer can be very subjective and localised so my condolences if you live in the south.

The models continue to frustrate and are now intent on cutting off any feasible build of HP next week for the familiar return of cutoff lows by weeks end. The worrying trend is that any sustained ridging is being pushed back further and further on the GFS OP runs and it has never really been within the ECM/GEM range.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I've got to be honest with ya.. im starting to get bad feelings about later next week now..Im not liking the Heights over Greenalnd and a boxed in low one bit! The gears are well and truly being grinded down here.

@Tamara any chance of an update for perhaps something better later this month.. just thinking outside the box here,but you've gone from 7 days of blue skies and sun every few months to the same quota every week.. I ain't envious one bit.

Day 9 and 10 well...look away if your of a nervous disposition...perhaps an improvement beyond that!! But perhaps is becoming quite an annoying term during this Summer.

And we kind of end the Gem run by being  in no man's land. Although it's perhaps a better run than the morning one.

gfs-0-168.png

gfs-0-240.png

gfs-0-252.png

gem-0-240.png

Edited by MATTWOLVES
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Momentum does seem to be shifting to a more undesirable spell for those wanting summer.

Looking likely a trough will end up with our name on it , problem is it will take a good few days thereafter to Clear sufficiently,and the clock slowly ticks on.

Hopefully a warm settled spell before August is out but I'm thinking last third now,as an aspiration.

 

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