model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I know I'm probably chatting with myself on here going on how quiet it is lately..mind you I have been known to do that often anyway

But here goes...12z mean keeps with the theme of a settling down!! For how long and just how warm? Let's get it landed first then I will stress over that later.

[Frosty.]

Who fancies a mid August plume?...just what the doctor ordered following the cool unsettled crap innit!   ⛈ ? 

Edited July 31, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Frosty.]

The ECM 12z op doesn’t end badly, that trough is being forced further north and I feel the Azores high would build in strongly beyond day 10...anyone agree.?  

 

However, it’s hypothetical with it being day 10 but I feel the force is with the Azores high by mid august..or a tad before...summer will return..watch this space...................ps. Great posts by Matt in particular, for some reason, the MOD forum is going through an unusually quiet period and it needs something to bring it back to life...well done Matt!    

Edited July 31, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

I've seen worse than the latest GEFS ensembles:   

[stodge]

Evening all

Just a quick glance at tonight's 12Z output.

GFS OP is very good especially in far FI with a strong build of heights from the south west and a push of tropical air to the north east keeping cyclogenesis well to the north west.

Control nowhere near as good in truth.

ECM ends on a decent vote suggesting we have only another week or so of unsettled conditions before the south of Britain, at any rate, starts to see conditions settle.

JMA shows what the problem with the evolution might be - if the Azores HP doesn't ridge in strongly enough, LP establishes over Scandinavia and we get a cool NW'ly.

Nothing really resolved as yet as you would expect.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Thanks Karl and also Pete for keeping the regular updates...all you other regulars that have vanished....get back on that naughty step!

ECM mean will eventually settle us down,and I feel increasingly confident it will gradually warm up!

Have a good rest of the Weekend.

[Frosty.]

100 percent agree with Matt! ...just too compare yesterday’s and today’s ECM 12z ensemble mean @ day 10............................even too my untrained ? ? tonight’s is an improvement..ok ones the 9th and the others the 10th blah blah! .... I feel we are heading in the right direction towards a summery extended outlook, the GEFS is even more bullish but it has the advantage of looking further ahead than the ecm...anyway, enough waffling frosty, enough already!  

Edited July 31, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Sky Full]

I’ll probably get shot at dawn for posting long distance charts, but the GFS 12z certainly shows an improving picture in mid August.  These charts cover the 10th to the 16th….500hPa and temps at 2m:

   
 

Yes, Karl, you reported it first - the Azores high trying it’s best to reach Blighty.  Daytime temperatures widely in the mid 20s seems perfectly OK with me.  No, it’s not nailed on - yet - but it’s one possible solution and I’m hoping the GFS has got this one right!    

Edited July 31, 2021 by Sky Full

[Eagle Eye]

I'm bound to get in on the fun sometime. Here we go then :

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 0z op is not to be sniffed at, even during the week ahead, although the weather looks mixed, temperatures recover into the low 20’s c across the bulk of England, perhaps closer to mid 20’s c at times for the SE and then from around 10th August, pressure rises and it becomes very warm with plenty of sunshine, even at the end, although there’s a little stutter, the Azores high is waxing strongly again for a repeat performance!...nae bad at all! ⛈  

Edited August 1, 2021 by jon snow

[draztik]

The EC ens heights anomaly days 5-10 likely illustrate why there has been one post in 11 hours. 

[Methuselah]

Yes karl, and supported well, by the 00Z ensembles:    

[bluearmy]

I’d say the last two ens suites have brought the week 2 geps and gefs back from their envelope edges closer to the eps. still some way to go as the envelope isn’t one of those little ones ……… week 2 looks better side of mixed with further better potential rather than the worse side of mixed which is week 1. 

[minus10]

Although day 10..... the ECM 0z holds out the possibility of some potential for mid August improvements to reinforce indications from other models....

 

This after a pretty unsettled but not too cold spell if it verified...

All to play for/more runs needed etc etc....

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Last nights EC mean and this mornings look pretty close for a better outlook...also backed up by the GFS 0Z mean for a similar time frame.

6Z op perhaps will be illustrating this shortly.

Edited August 1, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[MATTWOLVES 3]

UKMO at day 7 and GFS 6z shows a slowly improving picture..out to day 9 and the 6Z still keeps us settled and makes less of the little trough that was in evidence on the 6Z run yesterday!

Trough remaining parked over the Iceland area towards day 10.

Looking pretty good from the 6Z..

Edited August 1, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[mushymanrob]

On 26/07/2021 at 10:17, mushymanrob said:

Well there is some hope for about 2 weeks + time... but it depends upon how these charts evolve, so im speculating beyond their timeframe.

Previously id suggested that there no route to summery warmth as long as the strong Azores high was connected to the strong Greenland high by a ridge, and that pattern would need to change.

Well the latest 8-14 chart has tentetively taken a step in that direction as the latest chart suggests the GLH will weaken as will the ridge North of the Azores high.
Coupled with a possible developing vortex over Northeastern Canada/Baffin , could allow the Azores high to build Eastwards, and drift away from its current centre West of the Azores. So we could be looking at a more settled summery spell by mid August. But that is speculation, and the sequence described would need to develop from the hints this chart has (in comparison to the previous).

But for now.... it suggests after next weekend it will be cool, with a fresh North of West airflow. Thats unsettled, but no monsoon..

........... And that speculation is now starting to become reality as the Ops are suggesting this evolution after next weekend.

[mushymanrob]

Another example of how accurate the NOAAs can be, last Saturdays 6-10 mean, todays current synoptic chart which at day 8 is smack bang in the middle of the 6-10 day mean.

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6Z mean backs up the transition to much better conditions beyond next week. Wouldn't it be nice to receive a repeat of conditions through the mid July period! Not so sure about how warm it could get at this stage,but mid to high 20s could be the order of the day! Let's just wait and see.

Enjoy your Sunday roast.

[Frosty.]

Here’s a few nice perturbations from the GEFS 6z...and I’m not really even cherry picking as there is increasing support for high pressure longer term!  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Multi tasking here...retro drum n bass mixing and model watching at same time. 12z looking good.tbh it seems to settle us down a bit earlier also.

Could be some fireworks here.

Edited August 1, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[MATTWOLVES 3]

UKMO day 7 looks OK.. the trough mixing out by this stage.

[swfc]

Greatings folks. Bit unsettled atm but if you look back on this thread tammara called a settled warm spell mid month ie August. I'm not quite sure how she does it but it's knocking on the door for sure. Hope you are all well ad healthy. I had a covid episode and then a stroke but looking forward to the rest of this year and the new one weather and personally wise.

Edited August 1, 2021 by swfc

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Greatings folks. Bit unsettled atm but if you look back on this thread tammara called a settled warm thread mid month ie August. I'm not quite sure how she does it but it's knocking on the door for sure. Hope you are all well ad healthy. I had a covid episode and then a stroke but looking forward to the rest of this year and the new one weather and personally wise.

A few of us have been hinting at this mate..fingers crossed.

You have my Heart felt sympathy my lad.

Here's wishing you a speedy recovery and a much better rest of the year

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ok I'm sounding like a broken record now,but the 12z mean continues the better theme.

@swfc you've timed your comeback just perfect...the weather gods are looking down on you