Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 11th July onwards

MATTWOLVES 3
 Share

Recommended Posts

MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Author
Posted
2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the ECM 12z operational day 10......erm, erm, yeah..we’re really making progress!  

8EAA830B-7738-48F4-8B83-5BF56EDDA3E6.thumb.png.85363c798f236e268977f704959b73e6.png

 

Patience stallion..its just after that day 10 period the signs are picking up..I think the ops will start to show this come early next week.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Penrith Snow Experienced

Penrith Snow

Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
Posted
3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the ECM 12z operational day 10......erm, erm, yeah..we’re really making progress!  

8EAA830B-7738-48F4-8B83-5BF56EDDA3E6.thumb.png.85363c798f236e268977f704959b73e6.png

 

Christ that's so bad it's laughable! As the man said in Jaws:  We're going to need a bigger boat 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
7 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Christ that's so bad it's laughable! 

It’s actually not that bad, sunshine and heavy thundery showers..I must say it’s been a thundery summer hasn’t it? ⛈  

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Author
Posted
10 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

It’s actually not that bad, sunshine and heavy thundery showers..I must say it’s been a thundery summer hasn’t it? ⛈  

Rain goes through pretty quick,then showers..

modezrpd_20210729_2100_animation (1).gif

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

This is the last post from me tonight, .....anyway, the longer term GEFS mean continues to improve...think I’ve said that before... ...anyway, yeah, mid august could be pivotal.. ...tentative signals from the 12z that the Azores high could really change things for the better from around mid august?...anyway, yeah, I’m trying. ..   ..very trying... ☀️ ...just zip it frosty!..  

C3E576D3-5091-44D5-A365-0151FA9350AB.thumb.png.67ac675b4b16b597685e3c45af751140.png28133528-8ED5-480D-A3EE-8E231BE295FC.thumb.png.2fd272955d7075fd0ee0f7125642e82f.png3B500638-BFDB-489E-A55A-07747E9BB98C.thumb.png.b6be962f336d1e2792bf1abc326f84eb.png07D469E8-518A-49D7-87F1-BCB866AD4B0A.thumb.png.fd141afcc16d617973b979cd132ea4fa.pngFF830F29-2645-470D-858E-7247ED8CFC9F.thumb.png.e7bed536c2cc4e602cbf1611e207a3d3.png7AE1EE45-1740-416B-8475-E60A4F1E6AC8.thumb.png.8517e100282b8aec6e5fe0cbc5084d1d.png6C9016F3-31FE-4F29-91DA-16972889BB36.thumb.png.e19a86f64c667956ed9f51fc56ae764d.png568C1930-18F2-4E7D-A964-66C1D32AAD37.thumb.png.6a2def8498b2120565148ebbdc3d69a4.png6661E9F0-F51E-4508-8786-60C480A6E521.thumb.png.a09ad103db90b9fa100f99f9352031bb.png

 

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 10
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Author
Posted (edited)

EC46 update...we keep with the theme of greater ridging around the 10th of August...further NW look still prone to some less settled conditions at times with lower Heights towards Iceland...beyond this ridges keep being thrown up at times and at times more extensively North. So I would say areas further South especially will be Improving beyond this next 10 day disturbed spell..so from me to you I think August could most definitely be a tale of 2 halves! 

Edited by MATTWOLVES
  • Like 6
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Uncertainty Accomplished

Uncertainty

Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West
Posted
13 hours ago, Uncertainy said:

I’m not fully convinced by this nailed on washout August discourse that’s flying around this forum and the twittersphere at present. That’s not too say I don’t agree it’s a very realistic possibility: it is. However there are some small signs of optimism from a summery perspective in both the short term  and extended range, once tonight’s troublesome low swings up and through England later tonight...

In the shorter range  the models have extended the coolish / dryish spell from Saturday through to late Wednesday / Early Thursday. A low then looks highly likely to blast through  this ridge and portend an unsettled spell nationwide. The key question is how long this lasts... According to the latest EPS it’s at least 2/3 in favour of continuing but the remaining third of members go for either a re-emergence of a ridge close to Ireland or a pattern we haven’t seen in some time: the canonical ridge to the SE and a more traditional NW/SE split.

 image.thumb.png.0cd00bef643828a37dfa03205b6e1f41.png
The GEFS by that time has a similarly hard to decipher spread of solutions with the NW/SE split swapping positions towards the end...

image.thumb.png.393bf5bbe1236aff9a5aa8d3f2c1ca91.png

 

image.thumb.png.c7e8be8c022645324339658e123a389a.png
 

In short then whilst it doesn’t look great for a return to warm and sunny weather especially in the 6-10 day range it’s not yet the time to throw in the beach towel for this summer just yet.

Update, GEFS (very) late on... just to highlight the possibility...

image.thumb.png.3712c1cecc459b7b3cb892fd041aef1b.png
 

Eps now has 2 out of 3 clusters with BL pattern and a U.K. ridge
image.thumb.png.5a64844ae837526a6ce47118795308f5.png

The very early seeds then of a further summery spell towards mid- August, perhaps around the 12th?

Could this be because the models have sniffed out a bit of amplitude in the mjo around phase 8? Previously they were looking to head quickly to the IO..

image.thumb.gif.6bac34e2cd85c17d37469a4bd345b30a.gif
 

Don’t have the August phase  8 Nina composite but here’s July’s...

image.thumb.png.bde31e213b0843686b695b345bbf020b.png

Most intriguing is the regime probabilities diagram from the latest EC46

image.thumb.png.1909885a37d1b7f65ec8abce5a433332.png
A return to blocking patterns dominating?(usually the most favourable pattern for dry and sunny U.K. weather, especially further N and W)

I’m not holding my breath on this one as I don’t trust August’s in the U.K. but at face value the present extended range output leaves the door open for a return to high pressure later in August. Let’s look back again after the weekend... In the meantime, batten down the old hatches!


 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted
21 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Update, GEFS (very) late on... just to highlight the possibility...

image.thumb.png.3712c1cecc459b7b3cb892fd041aef1b.png
 

Eps now has 2 out of 3 clusters with BL pattern and a U.K. ridge
image.thumb.png.5a64844ae837526a6ce47118795308f5.png

The very early seeds then of a further summery spell towards mid- August, perhaps around the 12th?

Could this be because the models have sniffed out a bit of amplitude in the mjo around phase 8? Previously they were looking to head quickly to the IO..

image.thumb.gif.6bac34e2cd85c17d37469a4bd345b30a.gif
 

Don’t have the August phase  8 Nina composite but here’s July’s...

image.thumb.png.bde31e213b0843686b695b345bbf020b.png

Most intriguing is the regime probabilities diagram from the latest EC46

image.thumb.png.1909885a37d1b7f65ec8abce5a433332.png
A return to blocking patterns dominating?(usually the most favourable pattern for dry and sunny U.K. weather, especially further N and W)

I’m not holding my breath on this one as I don’t trust August’s in the U.K. but at face value the present extended range output leaves the door open for a return to high pressure later in August. Let’s look back again after the weekend... In the meantime, batten down the old hatches!


 

Fingers crossed it doesn't wait until September to settle down again, as often has been in the case in many a year!

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted
25 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Update, GEFS (very) late on... just to highlight the possibility...

image.thumb.png.3712c1cecc459b7b3cb892fd041aef1b.png
 

Eps now has 2 out of 3 clusters with BL pattern and a U.K. ridge
image.thumb.png.5a64844ae837526a6ce47118795308f5.png

The very early seeds then of a further summery spell towards mid- August, perhaps around the 12th?

Could this be because the models have sniffed out a bit of amplitude in the mjo around phase 8? Previously they were looking to head quickly to the IO..

image.thumb.gif.6bac34e2cd85c17d37469a4bd345b30a.gif
 

Don’t have the August phase  8 Nina composite but here’s July’s...

image.thumb.png.bde31e213b0843686b695b345bbf020b.png

Most intriguing is the regime probabilities diagram from the latest EC46

image.thumb.png.1909885a37d1b7f65ec8abce5a433332.png
A return to blocking patterns dominating?(usually the most favourable pattern for dry and sunny U.K. weather, especially further N and W)

I’m not holding my breath on this one as I don’t trust August’s in the U.K. but at face value the present extended range output leaves the door open for a return to high pressure later in August. Let’s look back again after the weekend... In the meantime, batten down the old hatches!


 

Yes please! We seem to be having 2-3 week spells of a certain type of weather this summer, so a settling down for the second two thirds of August would be great. This might normally portend a good September too as, when August goes downhill, it rarely improves for any length of time thereafter. Maybe something different this year though. Plenty of time for low pressure areas beyond the Equinox.

August how it should be from the oh so accurate CFS - pretty settled all the way out until September 10th again bar the odd blip:

cfs-0-312.png cfs-0-390.png

cfs-0-600.png cfs-0-720.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Looking at the longer term GEFS 0z mean, the Azores high is definitely WAXING... ....   ...which may sound painful, but for summer fans it’s potentially very good news for mid / late august?! ☀️ 
E567CB26-2757-4031-882A-8AC91F9C6C9C.thumb.png.fe1d67bcbb427563e8e543c98575ae76.pngD6E9F45F-D87A-4EE1-8F47-579C80633896.thumb.png.fd254c069ad2a4c3bc2ed926c171a1eb.png9066095F-FC11-4217-BD73-A04BCCC18E10.thumb.jpeg.19221b7adeb043128e7973c21279ff8e.jpeg

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Perhaps the first tentative hints of improvement creeping into the day 10 range across the south from the ECM 0z ensemble mean...? ...I’m not ready for autumn yet!  

B06D9CB9-EFFB-4D08-82D6-79CBFC58B6FF.thumb.gif.2161335293d6dcb020ad55e99f79e265.gif

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Oh my, 3 posts since midnight. Unsurprisingly the outlook can be considered poor until at least day 10.

spacer.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

Looks as though gfs has blown another shortwave low for Tuesday let's see if it's there on the 12z......

h850t850eu.webp

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Just a few hints still from the models that the Azores high is going to move in from the 10-15th period, though my guess is the models are being a little overly progressive on that and something more like the 15-20th sounds more reasonable.

Unlike most of the summer so far it does seem like for now the south is better with the ridging stronger further south you head.

However we are still a ways off yet and probably going to have to suffer another turgid 2-3 weeks to get there and whether a 7-10 day more settled spell is worth a 20-30 day unsettled spell is very much questionable unless it really is very good country wide like the last one.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Author
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Just a few hints still from the models that the Azores high is going to move in from the 10-15th period, though my guess is the models are being a little overly progressive on that and something more like the 15-20th sounds more reasonable.

Unlike most of the summer so far it does seem like for now the south is better with the ridging stronger further south you head.

However we are still a ways off yet and probably going to have to suffer another turgid 2-3 weeks to get there and whether a 7-10 day more settled spell is worth a 20-30 day unsettled spell is very much questionable unless it really is very good country wide like the last one.

2 or 3 weeks is pushing it I feel..definitely signs of improvement before the 3 week stage..

If you were to say in Winter on here...is a 1 week severe cold spell gonna be worth the 2 or 3 weeks of mild dank rubbish before it,most would tear your arm off..me included! And I would say the same principle applies here!

All to play for...September included!

And a very positive Exeter update beyond this next 10-12 day dodgy period.

Edited by MATTWOLVES
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Nae bad from the Gfs 6z op... !!! ☀️...perhaps summer isn’t over?! ⛈ 

20D28F2E-4BFB-45AF-ADB2-A5F5084AFFB9.thumb.png.5f9830cfd46a921044445adfdea25174.png3C79B71E-B160-4AE1-BCE7-E1ED2970AD24.thumb.png.786427d0bb7adb66b191da2441c6a128.pngD26DE0B9-AAB7-4A5F-8348-B9088EA79DEE.thumb.png.9746e7854f91dced5f153bea698d5e57.png

 

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
52 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

2 or 3 weeks is pushing it I feel..definitely signs of improvement before the 3 week stage..

If you were to say in Winter on here...is a 1 week severe cold spell gonna be worth the 2 or 3 weeks of mild dank rubbish before it,most would tear your arm off..me included! And I would say the same principle applies here!

All to play for...September included!

And a very positive Exeter update beyond this next 10-12 day dodgy period.

I’d accept a decent second half of the month to compensate for this bad first half we’re going to endure. Interesting how bullish they are on a marked change around mid month!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Oh my, 3 posts since midnight. Unsurprisingly the outlook can be considered poor until at least day 10.

spacer.png

 

I can’t be bothered to keep posting cool and unsettled every day now nobody wants this tripe in the height of summer. 70mph winds in July? Er, no thanks. 

I’ll just wait a few days and hope that some nice charts around mid month start to appear in the T240 range later next week…

Edited by mb018538
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Author
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

I can’t be bothered to keep posting cool and unsettled every day now nobody wants this tripe in the height of summer. 70mph winds in July? Er, no thanks. 

I’ll just wait a few days and hope that some nice charts around mid month start to appear in the T240 range later next week…

Yes I will definitely take a decent 2nd half of the month and a decent September..still lots to play for.. I've noticed many less posts on here lately...I know the conditions are poor,but there were many more posting during the last unsettled spell!  I wonder if it's anything to do with the reputation score missing! Just a thought!

I kind of missed it at first,but now I can't say I'm to bothered about it.

Edited by MATTWOLVES
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

I do love a happy ending! ...now this is what I want to see mid August from the Gfs 12z operational!!!!... ☀️ 

8E154CD4-504E-46AE-AD8B-9488C29BF4E2.thumb.png.cdb7134be619c6f389b2abd50e327bad.png763728D7-53EB-4103-93DD-1A823A733063.thumb.jpeg.62f13b8b485c1ee46882ec048929dc95.jpeg

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Author
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I do love a happy ending! ...now this is what I want to see mid August from the Gfs 12z operational!!!!... ☀️ 

8E154CD4-504E-46AE-AD8B-9488C29BF4E2.thumb.png.cdb7134be619c6f389b2abd50e327bad.png763728D7-53EB-4103-93DD-1A823A733063.thumb.jpeg.62f13b8b485c1ee46882ec048929dc95.jpeg

That settled trend seems to be picking up on the ops now..I was expecting the changes to start showing later this Weekend/early next week! But so far so good..big ECM and mean coming up!

Now where have I heard that phrase Before!

Edited by MATTWOLVES
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Author
Posted

GFS 12z mean bringing a change to more settled conditions around day 10 and beyond...the countdown begins.

gens-31-1-228.png

gens-31-1-240.png

gens-31-1-264.png

gens-31-1-288.png

gens-31-1-312.png

ud9X4zi.gif

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Author
Posted

Spot the Heights around Greenland! That's right,they've gone! Things can only improve from day 11 onwards folks!

That's my shift done..do have a nice Weekend if you can..

ECH1-216.gif

ECH1-240.gif

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...