model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Frosty.]

The only reason I’m showing these charts is because they tie in with the pros mid august tentative signal for high pressure and warmth to return, and looking through the GEFS 12z and the mean, to be honest, there really isn’t a settled signal whatsoever but that’s a minor detail!  

[Scorcher]

3 hours ago, NApplewhite said:

 Latest PPN charts - plenty of rain on the way 

Why do you have to spread your negativity over so many consecutive posts? Why not summarise all your misery in one post?

[Lincs Observation]

5 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

All i can say is this summer is definitely over - lets hope May - August 2022 is better. 

A ridiculous statement is all I can say about that.

LO

[johnholmes]

6 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

All i can say is this summer is definitely over - lets hope May - August 2022 is better. 

And your proof please?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ok Summer chasers the next 10 days are done for...perhaps even 14,but I'm sure we can eek out another 1 week of a warm and settled spell next month,perhaps even more...and we still have a fair chunk of September to play for.

Yes ECM is dreadful,and the mean backs it up...so I'm content that the next 10 or so days are poor,but I remain hopeful of things improving again,just like they did during the middle part of this month...Know one on earth can tell what conditions we will be in a few weeks from now! We can speculate and punt,but that's about it.

Now where did I put that bloody passport

@NApplewhite perhaps it would be best you consign your comments to the moans thread if your gonna come out with ridiculous comments like that!

The funny thing is I was just about to say...where is everybody...now its a riot

Edited July 26, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[mb018538]

11 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

Why has the Azores HP moved to the US East Coast? 

Nothing too uncommon. It retracts a long way west in these type of setups, which leads to less settled weather here. The Americans tend to call it the Bermuda high anyway, looks like it’s more over that way anyway!

[Man With Beard]

There's not a lot more to add here, it's clear we're unlikely to see settled hot weather within the next 14 days, and possibly even 21 days. Last week's heatwave may well have been "the" heatwave.

However, it's easy to go over the top. It's the height of summer; it won't be that bad. It won't be wall to wall rain; NWlies in particular tend to have dry slots (think winter when your eyes water at a NWly only for no snow to arrive and blue skies). If you have a holiday in mind, i would avoid Wales, the Lakes and Scotland, but pleasant weather on 4/5 days out of 7 will probably be found on the south coast from Dartmoor east, and up Eastern England if a north sea trough stays far away and the winds are west of north. And, with the time of year, temperatures comfortably in the 20s in drier slots.

[Eagle Eye]

Summer certainly isn't over, we're in a gap period in the Models, where nothing happens and it's all at 330+,we have to wait now, that's what I did for the Azores and following storms, that's what I'm going to do now. 

[stodge]

Evening all

After yesterday's extraordinary deluge here in East London, a much calmer and quieter day (mercifully). A fresher feel this evening (also not unwelcome) as we transition into a cooler, more unsettled spell.

Tonight I'll look at some T+216 500 HPA charts to see if there is a sign of a change:

Charts for Wednesday August 4th - ECM, GEM, JMA, GFS OP and GFS Control

GEM trying perhaps to pick up some of the theme from last night's ECM and tries to build a ridge across Southern Britain which prevents the Atlantic LP dropping down from the NW. To be blunt, GEM is an outlier at this time - it's the one that tries to send the jet back north while the others all hold the jet near to southern Britain. 

Looking further on (just a bit of fun, as Peter Snow would say) - GFS OP and Control at T+360:

A bit more like the kind of August @Mike Poolehas been forecasting. To be fair, GFS often picks up trends and runs with them  Control would be a very "typical" settled August pattern - OP is getting there slowly and note the rising heights to the south over Europe.

[ANYWEATHER]

8 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

All i can say is this summer is definitely over - lets hope May - August 2022 is better. 

It's a little bit too early to right summer off, it's like writing  late January off into February before we even get there.! Granted model output is not that great but there's still time for it to change ,we have still got over 4 weeks of meterological summer left, but got to admit I'm looking forward to some cooler fresher conditions

[mushymanrob]

55 minutes ago, Alderc said:

But you’re right, a 29C day in late August/Sept doesn’t pack the same punch. We didn’t even officially reach 30C here last week, but we’re above 25C for 12-13hrs a day and above 27C for 8-10hrs hours. That clearly doesn’t happen in early September.  

Nonsense...

the daily temperature record is over 30c until the 18th...

 

[Bald Eagle]

45 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

All i can say is this summer is definitely over - lets hope May - August 2022 is better. 

The ultimate doom spreader right there. Please can you provide proof of this

[Guest]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

Nonsense...

the daily temperature record is over 30c until the 18th...

 

No, you’re completely missing the point. Yes the air temp can been very warm, right into October. What we are saying is that it just doesn’t feel the same. The peak temps are over a shorter period of the day, the lights gone by 7:30ish in mid September (maybe earlier) the sun just isn’t as strong. It’s obviously at that time of year you’re not going to be walking to the shop at 8pm (like I did last week) with the sun still out, it’s still 28C and feeling hot. 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the ECM 12z ensemble mean T+240 hours, I’ve got my eye on that light blue colour (850’s) way up north...winter is coming!  

 

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the ECM 12z ensemble mean T+240 hours, I’ve got my eye on that light blue colour (850’s) way up north...winter is coming!  

 

 

 

I ruddy well hope not mate..I didn't stop chasing the last one till April...at least give me some time to recover.

 

[damianslaw]

A very unsettled outlook for the foreseeable. Southerly positioned jet, trough making a beeline for the UK, indeed we have secondary low development zipping along the channel on Thursday, synoptics more akin to perhaps autumn. Below average temps, some places will see lots of rain. The summer of 2021 rollercoaster ride continues, plenty of highs and lows!

Edited July 26, 2021 by damianslaw

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I've just had a very quick view through all 50 ensembles of the EC46  out to mid month.. and I would say at this stage around half are leading to an improving situation at this point...obviously there are others that keep it less settled..but the signs are there for sure towards an eventual improvement shall we say.

[DR(S)NO]

28 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the ECM 12z ensemble mean T+240 hours, I’ve got my eye on that light blue colour (850’s) way up north...winter is coming!  

 

 

 

Lol Frosty

Is that an earlier than ever winter ramp  I spy?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The improvement is there on the 46 mean also.. towards midmonth pressure finally rising from the SW..let's hope this trend keeps growing in the coming days...because quite frankly folks I just ain't ready for a Winter chase just yet....I may have to curb it from December till March this year,cause April really takes it out of you..

[ChannelThunder]

After the stormy excitement of the weekend, I thought I'd have a catch up on the models! All very doom-and-gloom in here but that GEM doesn't look half bad towards the end, if not particularly warm, so there's always hope. After last August I'm willing to bet we're bound to get a week of tropical-like heat in the middle of the month again. 

[Bigdaddydave51]

2 hours ago, NApplewhite said:

All i can say is this summer is definitely over - lets hope May - August 2022 is better. 

How do you know summer is definitely over?. If it isn't aren't you going to look foolish?. 

[thestixx]

40 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

Mostly cloudy on Tuesday morning with some showery burst of rain affecting parts of Wales and southern England. There will be further showers in eastern Scotland and also across the far north west of Ireland. Other areas are likely to be starting today dry. However during the morning showers are going to be developing more widely and will become heavier.

This afternoon sees for the showers over parts of England and Wales. Rain in much of central Scotland and probably for Northern Ireland as well. Parts of northern England, the Midlands and southern parts of Ireland as well as the far north of Scotland and likely to be dry.

Tonight is more persistent rain three parts of Northwest England and Scotland, some of this could be quite heavy in the west. A few showers in western Ireland and some getting into western Wales and the western coast of Southwest England to. However much of Ireland, Wales, central and southern England should be dry overall.

Wednesday 28/7/21

Low-pressure is expected to be centre just east of Scotland on Wednesday. This is going to be bringing an unsettled day to all areas. There will be cloud and outbreaks of rain through much of eastern, central and southern Scotland with only the far north possibly staying dry. Heavy and frequent showers, some of them thundery passing through Ireland and western parts of England as well as Wales. After a bright start the heavy showers will spread across the rest of England and Wales, these becoming thundery with the risk of hail and local torrential downpours. As is the nature of showers one or two places may escape them. Highs at 16 to 22C, warmest in the east. A moderate to fresh westerly wind in the south.

Thursday 29/7/21
A front to sinks southwards on Thursday bringing some showery outbreaks of rain into central and southern Scotland, before moving into Northern Ireland and the far north of England. Mostly fair for England and Wales wut sunny spells and a scattering of showers. More persistent showers or rain may affect the far south later. Turning brighter across central and northern parts of Scotland, although one or two showers just affecting northern coast, Orkney and Shetland. Highs at 15 in the far north, 22C in the south.

 

Friday 30/7/21
Thundery showers and some rain may affect central and southern parts of England Wales early on Friday, although there is much uncertainty in this. Some clouds and spots of rain across Ireland and Northern Ireland. Probably brighter across central and northern parts of Scotland with some sunny spells. Highs at 15C in northern Scotland, 22C in southern England.
 

 

Saturday 31/7/21
Pressure is going to be staying rather low on Saturday. Some heavy showers developing for England and Wales, a few of them turning thundery. Scotland and Ireland should be mostly brighter, although a few showers could affect eastern Scotland and the far south of Ireland. Highs at 14C in northern Scotland, 23C in southern England.

Sunday 1/8/21
North-westerly flow is expected to affect all areas on Sunday. This brings sunny spells, but also a few showers. Most of the showers affecting windward facing coastal hills. A risk of some cloudy skies and more persistent rain affecting the far south of England. Highs at 15C in northern Scotland, 21C in southern England.

Monday 2/8/21
Showers again on Monday. These could be heavy in places, mostly the east and south. More western and northern areas are likely to be drier and brighter in the northerly flow. Highs at 14 to 22C.

Tuesday 3/8/21
High pressure tries to build back for a short time on Tuesday. Showers still affecting eastern areas, some of them thundery. To the west it should be dry and bright with sunny spells. Highs around 14C in northwest Scotland, widely 21 to 23C in England, Wales and Ireland.

 

Greece weather - temps in the low 40s

 

 

Loving the random Greece forecast I wonder if they even have daily weather forecasts.

[Eagle Eye]

On 27/07/2021 at 06:38, thestixx said:

Loving the random Greece forecast I wonder if they even have daily weather forecasts.

Can confirm that they do but its never needed in the summer lol

[Methuselah]

This morning's GFS 00Z operational run is hardly conducive to heat & sunshine: 

    

    

    

[Eagle Eye]

On 27/07/2021 at 07:27, NApplewhite said:

I saw a news article about extreme heat of over 40 degrees across Greece . Your right though! Sunshine and clear skies for the next 14 days in Athens for example. The weather reports must be very boring in Greece over the summer - hot and sunny again is all they can say ! lol Contrast that with the interest weather over the next 14 days in Chester!  already 37 degrees at 10am in Athens! 14 in Chester lol 

 

Noticed the small chancew of rain indicating a shower somewhere, will be looking out for that when I go to Corfu next year