model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Did you ever find the source of the claim from sometime back that predicted a cool August for north west Europe?  Looks very close to the money judging by this!

The coldest August for many a year, or words to that effect?

Edited July 24, 2021 by Ed Stone

[bluearmy]

19 minutes ago, carinthian said:

I think he is a forum member posting from Norway but cannot remember the name . Yes, seems likely to have called this right but still another week until August starts !

C

And august is more than 4 weeks long ……I’m expecting a similar pattern to July with a warm/hot spell later in the month. 

[Singularity]

GFS has lost the Azores ridge attempts for the past two runs. It seems strange in light of tropical developments but we often see pattern shifts appear only intermittently when at more than a week’s range, as the models attempt to figure out when it could happen. I forgot to mention this intermittent  behaviour yesterday - it’s not really a trend, rather ‘hints that the models might try a new path’... catchy I know!

There’s about a week’s timing uncertainty on a return of the Azores High to our shores and also a chance it doesn’t really manifest, should the Arctic play a counter-move in the form of extensive high pressure there. 

Hence my non-committal stance on this... it’s a ray of hope peeking over the horizon for warm dry weather fans, nothing more at this stage.

[Methuselah]

GFS 06Z out to the last day of the month . . . I can't see any sign of any bone-chilling cold though, unlike the 12C or so that 1978 & '88 supplied, on occasion?  

    

Ample time left for things to go truly pear-shaped, though! 

[Methuselah]

Well, early August does look quite appealing: plenty of warm, bright and breezy days in between any weak fronts. Good for the harvest?

    

I think that that large mass of warm/hot air (east, SE and south) is turning into an 'immoveable object', and will take something big to shift? Not to be confused with Tamara's AAM-related inertia, though!

[Frosty.]

I think it would require a miracle of biblical proportions to achieve even modestly decent charts like these from the GEFS 6z by August 1st?!...but, I’m showing them anyway!!!  

I’ve accepted the fact that we are in for a cooler more unsettled period but that won’t stop me searching for better times at some point in August..and I choose to believe there will be at least 1 hot summery spell during the second half of next month!  

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like the NW will hang into the warmth until Monday now , making it a cracking July to follow the lovely June 

So far summer is in the 9/10 rating ,a poor August would drop that to around 6/10 for me ,still above average so its money in the bank whatever happens now,so to speak. 

I wanted to post this to counter the incessant doom and gloom from some quarters.

Anyway,as you were with the 00z runs, things going downhill next week as Northerly latitude  blocking highs and a jet with our name on it take over.

TBF the pattern setting up is akin to a Euro high in February for me personally ,but when you've had lots of snow and ice in Dec and Jan it doesn't feel half as depressing. 

 

 

Thanks for putting things into perspective mate.You have done well for a good chunk of this Summer...not all areas have been poor,and perhaps we should do here what we do in Winter when some are saying how poor the Winter has been! Basically check the posters location! It appears we have missed out on any heavy rain here,and the Weekend is looking decent...Monday looks pretty good also...This goes to show how the nature of unsettled conditions can be very isolated and not always widespread!

I think blue stated earlier how he feels another summery spell is possible in to August,and I have to agree,its far to easy to fall into the trap of writing off several weeks of weather on the basis of some dodgy output,and the fact that we have been here before! In fairness to mushy who I've been at loggerheads with recently....his reflection of normal type Summer conditions over the next 10 days seems closer to the mark,and not the write off some are alluding too.

I think the guy being mentioned on here...regarding record August cold is Faronstream...I've asked him on more than one occasion to shed some light on this prognosis...but I never get a response! And it's a million miles away from that Exeter long range forecast of temps above average further into August! 

I still feel after a generally mixed start to the new month,things will improve towards the 2nd week with Heights nosing in towards the SW. There is a lot of scatter on the extended 14 day ECM ensembles at this point,as to be expected at this range..Average pressure around 1010mb....slight hints of pressure picking up on the extended GFS 6Z mean towards this timeframe also! So I would most definitely say to many...dont be giving in on Summer with a good 5 weeks left! 

[Guest]

23 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, early August does look quite appealing: plenty of warm, bright and breezy days in between any weak fronts. Good for the harvest?

    

I think that that large mass of warm/hot air (east, SE and south) is turning into an 'immoveable object', and will take something big to shift? Not to be confused with Tamara's AAM-related inertia, though!

Weak fronts, actual lol! Looks delightful if you’re a duck. Pretty sure this not the weather the farmers want….
 

[Frosty.]

Again there are very tentative hints from the GEFS 6z that towards mid august might see a gradual improvement with trough influence weakening / pushing away to the north and Azores high / ridge influence strengthening, at least across southern u k?....however, there’s probably a lot of water to go under the bridge before this possibility has the opportunity to develop...but, at least I’m being positive about a potential return to summery weather further into August with height rises from the Azores, or from the south, maybe leading to Scandi heights too?!!!!!  

 

Edited July 24, 2021 by Jon Snow

[draztik]

3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

And august is more than 4 weeks long ……I’m expecting a similar pattern to July with a warm/hot spell later in the month. 

Anything to support this? Or just an expectation? 

[Tamara]

16 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Yeah, it's the same with using  Teleconnections  to try and see where things may be heading, problem with that methodology  is that there are too many variables, and how they interact, so a lot of guess work needed there.

Just look at what the models (all)  are showing in the near time period, and try to, if one is so inclined, guess their conclusion.

A quite good discussion overall about methodologies and the various proxies at the disposal of the weather observer and all of which provide their own valuable merits

However, posts as over trivialising as the quoted extract, should be challenged for what they are..

In order to even start to consider the 'variables'' behind patterns and pattern changes, there HAS to be a diagnostic assessment of the jet stream itself and which pinpoints where turning forces (as expressed as -ve or +ve  switches of angular momentum) are being exhibited on the jet stream and which implies either lesser (-ve) or greater (+ve) inertia or change of direction/amplitude of the jet stream.

There equally has to also be an understanding, through diagnostic tools, utilising the GSDM plots and phase spaces, of the periodicity ( recurrence timespans) of the tropical  end extra tropical cyclical phenomena that influence wind-flow inertia on cyclical circa 30 to 60 day cycles - and additionally also sub-operate within intra-seasonal repetition wavelengths of up to 90 days.. Used impartiality and by eliminating bias confirmation (that skews suggested outcomes and in turn creates error) the known impacts these make on the jet stream can very reliably be anticipated and factored in to probabilistic outcomes based on the wavelength/timespans they operate within. It is possible therefore, to put together some medium longer term suggestions of the way ahead based on these - which are infinitely more than just guesswork...

Such methodology is scientifically accepted and peer reviewed over many decades by generations of meteorological scientists. Describing therefore' the teleconnections through which these wind-flow cycles are index measured and calculated, and the knowledge and proactive application of the relevant research as being dependant on 'a lot of guesswork' is, frankly, small-minded and dismissively untutored to say the least 

 The upper air pattern modelling of the atmosphere, through which diagnostic assessment gives the forecaster an extra understanding and perception of how the wind-flow budget within the atmosphere operates, is as an accurate representation, numerically, of these wind-flow differentials, as there can be - based on the acceptance of the caveats of longer term numerical model interpretations of global wind-flow.

Without undertaking a diagnosis, or being too parochially sceptical to believe there is need for one, how on earth can any understanding come about of how the science itself works from inception to cause and effects? Its the vital starting point of a systematic process that eliminates mere guesswork..

[davehsug]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

Again there are very tentative hints from the GEFS 6z that towards mid august might see a gradual improvement with trough influence weakening / pushing away to the north and Azores high / ridge influence strengthening, at least across southern u k?....however, there’s probably a lot of water to go under the bridge before this possibility has the opportunity to develop...but, at least I’m being positive about a potential return to summery weather further into August with height rises from the Azores, or from the south, maybe leading to Scandi heights too?!!!!!  

 

Aah, "maybe leading to Scandi heights". If I got a pound for everytime that's written, summer or winter, and had to pay £1000 back for every time it came to pass, I'd still be a very wealthy man!

[Methuselah]

2 hours ago, Alderc said:

Weak fronts, actual lol! Looks delightful if you’re a duck. Pretty sure this not the weather the farmers want….
 

Oh, goodness gracious me . . . proven wrong by a precip chart 14 Days' hence? I wonder what the CFS is showing for Christmas!

[Frosty.]

32 minutes ago, davehsug said:

Aah, "maybe leading to Scandi heights". If I got a pound for everytime that's written, summer or winter, and had to pay £1000 back for every time it came to pass, I'd still be a very wealthy man!

I was just covering all bases, it’s what the pros do all the time!  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

37 minutes ago, davehsug said:

Aah, "maybe leading to Scandi heights". If I got a pound for everytime that's written, summer or winter, and had to pay £1000 back for every time it came to pass, I'd still be a very wealthy man!

And if I got 10pence for everytime someone said Summer is over,and we will be stuck under a trough for a millennium,I would be even richer! 

When your in a trough,eventually one will climb oneself out of it

Edited July 24, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[MATTWOLVES 3]

10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh, goodness gracious me . . . proven wrong by a precip chart 14 Days' hence? I wonder what the CFS is showing for Christmas!

You know what amazes me about showing a precipitation chart at 14 days highlighting widespread rain pete? Well I'm still waiting for the duluges here that was forecast yesterday! Its nigh on impossible to pinpoint shower and frontal rain activity a day or so out...so anyone who thinks it's a given at 14 days out,or who have access to data that guarantees it,should frankly forward there CV to the met office pronto! I'm sure they would welcome you with open arms! 

[davehsug]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

I was just covering all bases, it’s what the pros do all the time!  

I couldn't resist. Keep reaching for the sunny side!

[Mike Poole]

UKMO 12z has the trough lifting out to our NE by T144, would like to check the T168 chart on this but so far, so good:

Contrast GFS which has the trough remaining in situ at same time, with heights building into Greenland - this is the evolution that I think is wrong, but GFS persisting with it for the moment:

Edited July 24, 2021 by Mike Poole

[bluearmy]

3 hours ago, draztik said:

Anything to support this? Or just an expectation? 

the latter ……. Not just a punt though …….the Azores is continually trying to ridge northeast and eventually it will succeed 

[Northernlights]

7 hours ago, carinthian said:

I hope there is nothing definite about this long term chart from GFS. However some consistency in its runs showing a southerly tracking jet. This bodes for a period of unsettled conditions in August, especially in Southern Britain and the continent. Who would bet against early frost in Scotland ?

 C

Can we just get a shower or two before then spring barley burning off with half inch wide cracks in the soil on the tramlines, grass completely stopped growing, ditches and rivers drying up. Very much like 2018 /1976 here just now.All tattie fields being irrigated. When you shift  the cattle the ground vibates with the thundering hooves although when its very warm and sunny they don"t seem to need or eat so much.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

You know what amazes me about showing a precipitation chart at 14 days highlighting widespread rain pete? Well I'm still waiting for the duluges here that was forecast yesterday! Its nigh on impossible to pinpoint shower and frontal rain activity a day or so out...so anyone who thinks it's a given at 14 days out,or who have access to data that guarantees it,should frankly forward there CV to the met office pronto! I'm sure they would welcome you with open arms! 

Matt you’ve been doing this long enough to know forecasting convective activity is fraught with risk even a couple of hours out just as last night and today has proven again 

But whether you post something for today or three weeks out it doesn’t matter whether it actually happens or not it’s the description off it was completely incorrect. 
 
If the synoptic output actually ended up like that in reality, would you be happy? Would the farmers? It’s clear there’d be significant frontal activity and probably fronts trailing right out into the Atlantic as shown. All I’m saying is you can’t post a chart, describe it completely incorrectly and expect not to be challenged. Especially when you post the charts whether good or bad and describe them in exactly manner.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Matt you’ve been doing this long enough to know forecasting convective activity is fraught with risk even a couple of hours out just as last night and today has proven again 

But whether you post something for today or three weeks out it doesn’t matter whether it actually happens or not it’s the description off it was completely incorrect. 
 
If the synoptic output actually ended up like that in reality, would you be happy? Would the farmers? It’s clear there’d be significant frontal activity and probably fronts trailing right out into the Atlantic as shown. All I’m saying is you can’t post a chart, describe it completely incorrectly and expect not to be challenged. Especially when you post the charts whether good or bad and describe them in exactly manner.

For once I think I agree with you Chris..and you made it sound like I've been at it for quite some time...that cheered me up But yes,I get your point...hopefully the output improves before much longer

[Mapantz]

2 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

You know what amazes me about showing a precipitation chart at 14 days highlighting widespread rain pete? Well I'm still waiting for the duluges here that was forecast yesterday! Its nigh on impossible to pinpoint shower and frontal rain activity a day or so out...so anyone who thinks it's a given at 14 days out,or who have access to data that guarantees it,should frankly forward there CV to the met office pronto! I'm sure they would welcome you with open arms! 

With respect, it's model discussion, much like your posts containing a few random ensemble members. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

With respect, it's model discussion, much like your posts containing a few random ensemble members. 

Yes I've kind of agreed with Chris for what he just said.. No disrespect to anyone concerned.

[Methuselah]

Hey!! Some of the farmers (not those living around Bournemouth, of course!) might see some much-needed rainfall, later this week:

    And then, thing's look like (I hope!) settling down as we approach mid-month?     

    

And finally, as a bonus, we even see Fred Flintstone, come T+384!

   

PS: editor's playing up. Or I'm a luddite!