Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 11th July onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 0z operational becomes cooler and more unsettled with temperatures gradually struggling to even reach average next week and then even sliding below average, there’s plenty of rain indicated, not raining all the time of course, there would be some fine spells but generally it becomes sub standard summer weather for early august...however, I’m not treating these charts as gospel but we may have to pay for this weeks stunning weather, the weather balances itself out, it’s the nature of the beast! ...

23E62511-DF62-41A1-A354-ED5C0FA6CD90.thumb.png.1120283f719540ab40a2a0e95ed9fcd6.png5E393D30-C6A9-4C20-8638-AF177B9FACCC.thumb.png.dd3f521d4ace287d30b14a367a7909b9.png4E19F037-0018-4A2B-A52C-6123DC04D884.thumb.png.e567e1c469f609d27c824e2078874ebb.pngFFF0F45D-4461-423C-A6C7-99DCE1EA93DD.thumb.png.7bfa4ac577c4fbedde8c3fd21f98fe7b.pngDA3CA21F-D1D2-48EF-8362-E589AAB5A65C.thumb.png.cddfd65d5bf86970c2c78bb5d8075a97.png1DDA8803-EF04-43C7-902C-FF83547011B2.thumb.png.3cd0cd2191be999f9b1244140c2d6cff.png 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Extremely disappointing outlook this morning, UKMO least bad at day 6, however the door looks fully open to north west. GFS and GEM at day 10 synced up pretty well some ugly northerly blocking starting to appear. 
 

UK payback weather at its finest 

069EFD8F-661D-443F-83B7-DCC0BE4A99F2.thumb.png.8d4f806e5b5b88740e1ee43419da68ae.png

800F2490-4349-4E27-9E7F-DDE5E01B5215.thumb.png.97ef110df2c7b4600adcdb8bdad84b60.png

Not sure you can get a poorer outlook from the ensembles. 
 

1337694487_gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n31.thumb.jpeg.375431eda49a55462130d0db9bd7869f.jpeg 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Not the best outlook this morning if you'd like a bit more sunshine and settled weather...it looks like by the end of the month we will have gone into a -NAO & - AO pattern, with a big Greenland and Arctic high blowing up. If we look at the polar view today, and also at day 10 on the GFS and GEM, you can see a marked change. Never has been a good pattern for decent UK summer weather. Jet will be forced south, and we will be on the colder side. Temperatures will therefore be below average in many areas, perhaps reaching average in drier interludes. August off to a flier again in the UK....

image.thumb.png.1c3d75208132757727e2328ed64f5c97.png

image.thumb.png.dc08e538f2da371ea1e1f436ecaf5f2d.png

image.thumb.png.31457dd13e94a6b9078aa56457b5f94a.pngimage.thumb.png.b6f28d01e0e1bc8d0dc9802a8417f7f2.png
 

image.thumb.png.9b5a9623a2d0d9bbd95f6a56237a31b8.pngimage.thumb.png.63ffbc1002fd42ef1df89c8be018454a.png

 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The ECM 0z operational usually has a great day 10...but not today...an early taste of autumn on the way?..of course, day 10 never verifies..does it..  ? !! ...anyway, a gradual change to cooler and more unsettled is coming.

7FEF3FF8-474A-4881-A69D-F8C0114BBB8B.thumb.png.6836fcef59f0ae9641688d490315f0b3.png366E5B68-F57C-4D4D-B1A7-A22032C14DCC.thumb.png.40da4ea00a23dc15c322e7ceeb597122.png

 

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

This morning's GEFS 00Z ensembles: isn't it amazing how an exaggerated-scale graph can distort people's perception? Average or a touch below, by August 5, hardly represents a signal for a 'washout August'. Whatever the forecast ENSO state will be? 

t850Suffolk.png    t2mSuffolk.png

And isn’t it amazing to see how some can distort the fact the model output is awful in an attempt to make it appear amazing. 
 

Whether it turns out like this is or not, it’s there in the output and awful, strong winds, heavy driving rain piling in from the north west, never a receipe anything better than mid teens IMO. 
 

0FF96526-C0F1-4C11-B211-E248C7291348.thumb.png.fd2899f3df89bd6fff2660ecb70bd179.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

I've been saying for days that the weekend looks terrible for quite a large area, and people have just batted it away saying it won't be that bad etc.

Maybe now the Met Office have issued a warning for up to 100mm of rain they'll sit up and listen!

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
14 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

This post will go down like a lead balloon filled with lead...

This chart is pretty dreadful, large high over Greenland, Southerly tracking jet, Low to our East... 

2012 returns.....

814day.03.gif

im saying nowt

 

ecm 240.png

gfs240.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Not very exciting around month's end, is it? But, for those of us who follow the musings of Those Who Cannot Be Named, it's hardly all that surprising:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

 

5 hours ago, Alderc said:

Extremely disappointing outlook this morning, UKMO least bad at day 6, however the door looks fully open to north west. GFS and GEM at day 10 synced up pretty well some ugly northerly blocking starting to appear. 
 

UK payback weather at its finest 

069EFD8F-661D-443F-83B7-DCC0BE4A99F2.thumb.png.8d4f806e5b5b88740e1ee43419da68ae.png

800F2490-4349-4E27-9E7F-DDE5E01B5215.thumb.png.97ef110df2c7b4600adcdb8bdad84b60.png

Not sure you can get a poorer outlook from the ensembles. 
 

1337694487_gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n31.thumb.jpeg.375431eda49a55462130d0db9bd7869f.jpeg 

 

I'd say you can since that graph starts off more above average than it gets below, and the mean doesn't really drop below 8C there.

It can simply be explained by averages.. obviously (anywhere in the world), the weather eventually balances out to reach it's climatic average.
We are currently seeing temps 8/10C above average for many, so at some point, we have to balance that out.

Of course we could just have constant average weather instead but that wouldn't be very interesting.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Solid agreement out to day 10 from Euro, GEM and GFS with a cyclonic, cool pattern taking over from 27th/28th.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

I've been saying for days that the weekend looks terrible for quite a large area, and people have just batted it away saying it won't be that bad etc.

Maybe now the Met Office have issued a warning for up to 100mm of rain they'll sit up and listen!

Yes some areas may see some large totals of rainfall while others get a mere sprinkling! That's nearly always the way it works. Personally I think those totals are a little over the top! And I can't see why many people would sit up and take to much notice...just like many fail to take notice of there extended outlooks when they are talking about conditions improving. I think the South may bare the brunt of this...but its a far cry from the situation that hit parts of Europe last week.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

For sure, the Gfs 6z operational shows an increasingly poor outlook for summer fans, especially week 2 which looks positively autumnal with lots of green snot around, not wanting to get too technical! ...at least next week the temperatures nudge into the low 20’s c, especially further s / se although there is some rain and thundery showers around, especially across southern u k...and that’s all from me..for now! ☀️ ? ⛈  

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

Wonder could this spell be the last real heat of the Yr considering the end of the month is looking much cooler.  By the time the weather gets decent again we could be talking about near mid August which at that stage summer is beginning to fade.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

 

8 minutes ago, sundog said:

Wonder could this spell be the last real heat of the Yr considering the end of the month is looking much cooler.  By the time the weather gets decent again we could be talking about near mid August which at that stage summer is beginning to fade.

I wouldn't get to concerned yet mate...there's scope for serious Heat anytime In August and September if things set up correctly..tbh there is scope for Heat even in Feb and March these days as much as it pains me too say it! Perhaps an unsettled 10 day period coming up before a gradual improvent later. Dont forget its the UK...so always expect ridiculous changes to occur at the drop of an hat..Go beyond a week and your looking at 30% chance the output will be wrong! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by MATTWOLVES
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Here I am, back again like a bad penny! ...anyway, just to say the GEFS 6z mean takes quite a swing towards unsettled and much cooler..so summer weather fans will have to roll with the punches during the next few weeks..it’s payback time for this weeks stunning weather!  ...there are hints of improvement further into august, across the south with a chance the Azores high / ridge could start to wax again! ☀️ 

B835E5E8-D2F0-47C4-AC47-29B09A931AD9.thumb.png.afc2686ef04f992268ceda1693153bbd.png55FFEFD7-C1A4-4909-9BB6-498CA3DEFCC8.thumb.png.12580481faff54bd94268b33b2a9cae0.pngB7DDB48B-86B6-46D7-9B90-993F6022896E.thumb.png.6710c9e98c1ed0ca8b9a8e090ea21734.png943B8ECD-E7A3-4A1B-A33A-C583B2F4E30E.thumb.png.0beb5a9e3dbde3205e474c061060123b.png904F67CD-11F6-4EA5-8C47-E05455A5C8DB.thumb.png.93e4e667d584da1d4baf1a1c0a314c9a.png12D5D67C-DFF5-4446-BB4F-7C24BEBE8FE6.thumb.jpeg.b323c56746c71700b4ce1093e775f336.jpeg

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Here I am, back again like a bad penny! ...anyway, just to say the GEFS 6z mean takes quite a swing towards unsettled and much cooler..so summer weather fans will have to roll with the punches during the next few weeks..it’s payback time for this weeks stunning weather!  

B835E5E8-D2F0-47C4-AC47-29B09A931AD9.thumb.png.afc2686ef04f992268ceda1693153bbd.png55FFEFD7-C1A4-4909-9BB6-498CA3DEFCC8.thumb.png.12580481faff54bd94268b33b2a9cae0.pngB7DDB48B-86B6-46D7-9B90-993F6022896E.thumb.png.6710c9e98c1ed0ca8b9a8e090ea21734.png943B8ECD-E7A3-4A1B-A33A-C583B2F4E30E.thumb.png.0beb5a9e3dbde3205e474c061060123b.png904F67CD-11F6-4EA5-8C47-E05455A5C8DB.thumb.png.93e4e667d584da1d4baf1a1c0a314c9a.png12D5D67C-DFF5-4446-BB4F-7C24BEBE8FE6.thumb.jpeg.b323c56746c71700b4ce1093e775f336.jpeg

Wow Karl....next few weeks...surely the output can't be set in stone for that time frame!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Wow Karl....next few weeks...surely the output can't be set in stone for that time frame!

It was a bit broad brushstrokes comment Matt, just looks a relatively poor period ahead for a while?...just my thoughts..  

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
11 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

It was a bit broad brushstrokes comment Matt, just looks a relatively poor period ahead for a while?...just my thoughts..  

You've got a point mate..im still hopeful of things improving after that 10 day period...but I'm also concerned how we quickly drop into periods of unsettled conditions for 3 weeks at a time once it gets going. I hope that's not the case this time,but we did see a period like that before this current Hot spell started...away from the North anyway! But I will take a fine 2nd half of August if it means being crud for a couple of weeks..Hopefully some better output will begin to appear come the Weekend my man.

Edited by MATTWOLVES
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
On 20/07/2021 at 12:44, Timmytour said:

The big standoff at the moment seems to be the Models v St Swithin......

I think it looks like St Swithin's is losing!

If the modelled change of weather at the end of this week for the worse comes off, it will in my opinion follow the pattern that I've noticed over the past 15 years of so (just going by gut feel I hasten to add)

It seems to be that this time of year, coinciding with the schools breaking up for summer, has often seen a marked change in the weather to a pattern that sticks around for a while - like a mini verion of St Swithins.

Unfortunately the change is more often than not for the worse...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Can anyone please give me a link to the NOAA 8-14 day 500 mb anomaly charts for PAST charts; Currently I'm especially interested in those for the past 7 days.

 

Thanks for any help

 

John

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Can anyone please give me a link to the NOAA 8-14 day 500 mb anomaly charts for PAST charts; Currently I'm especially interested in those for the past 7 days.

 

Thanks for any help

 

John

here you go
 

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

This page displays the most recent verification of the Climate Prediction Center's Monthly Forecasts

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...