model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[carinthian]

14 hours ago, carinthian said:

Worryingly, ECM overview picture continues to show potential for more heavy downpours' for the recent flooded locations of NW Germany and the Benelux. Whether the Upper Low becomes slow moving again or passes on at a quicker pace will be the forecasters dilemma . The build up of heat ahead of the cooler uppers has the potential for localised storms or downpours. Lets hope not as widespread or slow moving as the previous rainfall in that region.

C

Latest ECM/GFS is indicating the trough to move through quite quickly the region of flooding early next week, which would appear good news at this moment in time. However, the UKMO isobar flow at the same time ( chart below ) would indicate more of a slow burner low pressure system, which would not be good news for NW Germany and the Benelux group. More runs yet needed but one to watch carefully from those countries point of view.

C

[Dominic Carey]

1 hour ago, Monkeypants said:

maybe he can see the charts but doesn't really understand enough to break them down, so enjoys the commentating and breaking down of the charts by others here in forum?

That’s exactly it Monkeypants I struggle to understand what there showing I just understand Orenge/Red high pressure green/blue Low pressure/cold

[Dominic Carey]

How is the 06z looking so far?

[summer blizzard]

Still coming out but closer to GEM than Euro this morning. Surface trough forming near our east in around a week. Cyclonic, cool and showery.

[mushymanrob]

Im confused, its testing my understanding of the anomalies..

The GFS insists on lifting the weekend trough northward and that merges with another to form a mean upper trough just west of north .

The anomalies do show some shallow troughing to our near northwest but theres a positive pressure anomaly . The anomalies appear to keep the weekend trough to our South over northern France.

So theres a big difference here, anomalies keep the main trough to our south, the GFS to our north by the timeframe the 6-10 day anomaly chart covers. The ECM lifts it out too but to our Northeast.

If the anomalies (yet again) are nearer the mark then it throws out the window any operational run beyond about t120 which would be extrordinary

 

[mb018538]

39 minutes ago, Dominic Carey said:

How is the 06z looking so far?

Not great. Much more unsettled than the 00z run. Trough much closer making it wetter and windier. Side by side comparison below. 

[tight isobar]

Trough- gate!!.. the wiggle room via all output remains immense.. it’s click into an- unsettled stagnant plot.. or deluge.. then a form of heat reload......!!!!

[Atmogenic]

I know there are people on here dying from the heat, but this heat is creating such lovely scenes with weather, I know not everyone lives in the south east but the weather yesterday was beautiful and would like these hot themed models to continue until it's time to swap seasons 

[Frosty.]

I won’t try sugar coating it, these are the best of a bad bunch from the GEFS 6z regarding next week, but, that doesn’t necessarily mean next week will be particularly bad!?...just nothing like as incredible as this week...perspective, proportion and all that jazz..hmm, I think I did actually sprinkle some sugar didn’t I?... !  

Edited July 20, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Timmytour]

The big standoff at the moment seems to be the Models v St Swithin......

[Don]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

I won’t try sugar coating it, these are the best of a bad bunch from the GEFS 6z regarding next week, but, that doesn’t necessarily mean next week will be particularly bad!?...just nothing like as incredible as this week...perspective, proportion and all that jazz..hmm, I think I did actually sprinkle some sugar didn’t I?... !  

Exactly, the weather does not have to 30C+ in summer to be good!

[JayAlmeida]

Just lifted these CFS charts from gavsweathervids. I know the CFS is a joke but it's still rather worrying beyond next week. Long range consensus is pretty  

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

48 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

Just lifted these CFS charts from gavsweathervids. I know the CFS is a joke but it's still rather worrying beyond next week. Long range consensus is pretty  

This will almost certainly verify.  Punishment weather for this week. 

[JayAlmeida]

10 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

This will almost certainly verify.  Punishment weather for this week. 

To be fair the CFS predicted a boiling hot start to July this time last month so pinches of salt n all that.

[Mike Poole]

UKMO 12z seems to clear the unsettled weather out of the way quite quickly, here T144

Probably well worth looking at the T168 chart later.  If the high noses in further quite quickly it would back up thoughts of a swift return to summer heat.  

Edited July 20, 2021 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 hours ago, JayAlmeida said:

Just lifted these CFS charts from gavsweathervids. I know the CFS is a joke but it's still rather worrying beyond next week. Long range consensus is pretty  

Firstly its bloody Hot right now...

I won't mind a little relief from this come the Weekend...I may even stand out in it! 

Su.shine and showers look the order of the day for me,regarding next week...but like the met point out,there is no preference for any one weather type to dominate an area! Some places may escape the worst of the conditions while others get a drenching.

And wow that CFS is so far away from that Exter update...who are now stating signs of widely settled conditions towards mid month,when the other day it was becoming more changeable by then! That's a good update,especially as things can so often go downhill in the UK towards that stage. 

THE CFS can for me be dragged out in Winter when it's predicting the next ice age,while all other models go mild...and we all know deep down it will always be barking up the wrong tree...its entertaining for sure...but an absolute nightmare with its trends.

Take care in the heat folks...I think I'm slowly but surely changing Nationalities

[NApplewhite]

6 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Not great. Much more unsettled than the 00z run. Trough much closer making it wetter and windier. Side by side comparison below. 

Trough gate is right! no sign of any high pressure for the next few weeks. Long range precipitation charts are showing 20-30% above average rainfall across England from now to end of September. 

[NApplewhite]

1 minute ago, NApplewhite said:

Trough gate is right! no sign of any high pressure for the next few weeks. Long range precipitation charts are showing 20-30% above average rainfall across England from now to end of September. 

[Mike Poole]

36 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO 12z seems to clear the unsettled weather out of the way quite quickly, here T144

Probably well worth looking at the T168 chart later.  If the high noses in further quite quickly it would back up thoughts of a swift return to summer heat.  

Anyway, all good with the nosing, so to speak, on UKMO T168

[NApplewhite]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Anyway, all good with the nosing, so to speak, on UKMO T168

14 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

Trough gate is right! no sign of any high pressure for the next few weeks. Long range precipitation charts are showing 20-30% above average rainfall across England from now to end of September. 

 

[NApplewhite]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Anyway, all good with the nosing, so to speak, on UKMO T168

Plenty of rain in the ECMWF long range charts for next week! 

[NApplewhite]

3 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

Plenty of rain in the ECMWF long range charts for next week! 

 Next week and the week after - low pressure dominates with high pressure in the Atlantic and across Central / Eastern Europe Very strong Azores high remains over the Azores! Trough over UK with NW winds and cool temps 

Edited July 20, 2021 by NApplewhite

[Guest]

Absolute dogs dinner post Friday in the ensembles and GFS Ops run. Hopefully it’s wrong but that pretty good agreement on an ugly north westerly blast. 
 

T-5 days until the big red cancel button is pushed for Torquay for the following weekend! The end of the month has looked awful on pretty much every single model for a week now.

[damianslaw]

17 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Absolute dogs dinner post Friday in the ensembles and GFS Ops run. Hopefully it’s wrong but that pretty good agreement on an ugly north westerly blast. 
 

T-5 days until the big red cancel button is pushed for Torquay for the following weekend! The end of the month has looked awful on pretty much every single model for a week now.

Perhaps not too surprising. Classic la Nina summer pattern. Azores high suppressed and a NW flow. Right now we have lower pressure to the SW a sign the azores high is weak this summer. We've been fortunate with the current spell attributed I think due to rising AAM and tropical convection, buckling the jet,but we remain in a highly meridional flow, alterations between cold side of trough and warm side.. no typical zonal flow, nor plume events or long fetch southwesterlies.. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM and UKMO at T144:

If anything the ECM pushing further north with the ridge, I think this run is going to be a good one, with a return to settled conditions, although not as hot, fairly quickly after the weekend breakdown.  Despite what the naysayers say.  I’d be backing UKMO, ECM combo here at this range.  

Edit, then a little feature deepens at T168 and ruins it.  Not there on UKMO.

Edited July 20, 2021 by Mike Poole