model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[wimblettben]

1 hour ago, minus10 said:

Gfs6z certainly pushing for heavy rain/storms on Friday in the south after a very warm/hot week...

I hope the storms won't just be a southeastern affair again.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The Heat is on folks...and I'm literally melting here....i might do a fry up on the patio slabs for dinner..Trust me its hot enough... So the week ahead looks very warm even Hot with plenty of the yellow stuff..im kind of hoping we get some major storms for the Weekend...I love a good bang..

And I know some of you guys who storm chase put a hell of a lot of good input and dedication on here with it...so fingers crossed.

Longer term  feeling confident of a rebuild...backend of the month into the start of August will hopefully see Heights gaining some traction again.

Have a splendid one..

 

 

Edited July 18, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[minus10]

47 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

what do the other models say?

There seems to be general agreement for a breakdown of some degree occurring across the models for next weekend although timing  intensity and location are the issues with storms as they would be this far out still...

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z I have high hopes for early august.. ...I could have said low hopes... ...but I’m not that kind of guy... !...glass half full.. ...anyway, the week ahead looks really very summery! ⛈ 

[Methuselah]

Today's GEFS 06Z ensembles . . . There's a potential 'Phew, What a Scorcher' in there, too:

    

[summer blizzard]

Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GEM Europe 00Z

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

---

Wetterkarten GEM Europe 00Z

 

Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GFS Europe 06Z

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

---

Wetterkarten GFS Europe 06Z

Still looking good for the Saturday breakdown on GFS/GEM.

 

 

 

[Scorcher]

28 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GEM Europe 00Z

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

---

Wetterkarten GEM Europe 00Z

 

Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GFS Europe 06Z

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

---

Wetterkarten GFS Europe 06Z

Still looking good for the Saturday breakdown on GFS/GEM.

 

 

 

Plenty more heat to come before then and still scope for that to change- a fair way out still.

[viking_smb]

56 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Plenty more heat to come before then and still scope for that to change- a fair way out still.

I reckon it will change significantly by then 

[ANYWEATHER]

Plenty of hot sunshine for just about everyone in the next few days ,looking forward to a breakdown though by Friday, some great thunderstorms to look forward too, I think news headlines will be to do with flash flooding by then rather than heat as we move to the end of the working week.....!

[viking_smb]

3 hours ago, wimblettben said:

I hope the storms won't just be a southeastern affair again.

probably will 

[summer blizzard]

47 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

probably will 

More of a Channel Low type setup than just storms so a front will drench most of England.

Edited July 18, 2021 by summer blizzard

[mb018538]

Have to say the ECM hasn't done too well with temperature forecasts in the upcoming week. It now looks like being a lot hotter than it thought. Only really the UKV has be been going for the heat, and it looks like being more on the money. Apologies if this has already been discussed - it now shows 33c in South Wales/Pershore area on Tuesday, a lot of 32c and one 33c Wednesday, and 32c again on Thursday. By the time this has been done with it could actually end up a very noteworthy heatwave that's sort of crept up on us.

Edited July 18, 2021 by mb018538

[mb018538]

Just for reference - ECM 00z run from today for today - 2 to 4c out in quite a few spots. Only 28s on there where 30c has been reached in a number of areas. The usual add a couple of degrees on adage holding true. I find ARPEGE and UKV much better for accurate forecast maxima.

Edited July 18, 2021 by mb018538

[mb018538]

ARPEGE 12z run

33c Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday



32c Thursday


 

Edited July 18, 2021 by mb018538

[viking_smb]

48 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

More of a Channel Low type setup than just storms so a front will drench most of England.

will that be more storms or just rain and a bit of lightning thrown in.

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS/UKMO

   

We seem to be correcting this low a little further south now for next weekend. This introduces an easterly feed, especially the UKMO. Before then a solid week coming up. 30C looking widespread on most days across the UK.

 

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

GFS/UKMO

   

We seem to be correcting this low a little further south now for next weekend. This introduces an easterly feed, especially the UKMO. Before then a solid week coming up. 30C looking widespread on most days across the UK.

 

if the low goes south, is that a good thing? as I dont want to be woken up during the night as on earlies 

[MattStoke]

12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ARPEGE 12z run

33c Monday and Tuesday 

Wednesday and Thursday. Not often those sort of temperatures are projected for up here!

 

[Methuselah]

12Z not looking too bad, at T+246 . . . Another wave?

    

[Captain Shortwave]

8 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

if the low goes south, is that a good thing? as I dont want to be woken up during the night as on earlies 

The danger of the low shifting south is that it stalls and we end up back with lots of rain across the south again. However a long way to go regarding how next weekend pans out. Enjoy the coming week I would say, recording several days over 30C on the bounce after recording zero in the entire first half the summer is quite a turnaround.

[minus10]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

12Z not looking too bad, at T+246 . . . Another wave?

    

Yes Ed. Looks as so the 12z is keen on reintroducing the heat. Hope so as i go to Somerset for a few days at this time...first brief hol for over 5 years  . Working outside in the heat is ....challenging as you know but it is nice having it. Better still when you are having a break....notice also pretty hot in spain and the low countries again on this run..

[mb018538]

12z GFS fancies another 'heat pump' style cut off low to bring the hot stuff back middle to late next week:





A long way off at this stage. Anything after next weekend looks up in the air with a very slack pattern developing.
 

[Methuselah]

Even though it won't happen, T+309 looks to be a wee bit on the warm side?

    

Time to dust off the old Zak-O-Vision specs methinks!

    

Edited July 18, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Eagle Eye]

5 hours ago, viking_smb said:

what do the other models say?

Other models have the same but a bit later arriving on the same day 

Edited July 18, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[Mike Poole]

Interestingly it is GFS tonight that wants to bring the heat back after next weekend’s wobble.  It is usually the party pooper.   I think that this is the right solution, with pressure building again after the low clears.  T246: