model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Man With Beard]

45 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Wahey , Hot spell extended on the Navgem like others too .  @Man Without Beard those temp charts certainly seemed to come in line now ? . 

I just can't do NAVGEM for temps after it forecast something like 45C a few years back

[Mark wheeler]

43 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

I just can't do NAVGEM for temps after it forecast something like 45C a few years back

Sure , that's what I am alluding too , it always has until mid summer last year . But now so far isn't blowing temps up .  Until the 00run probably . 

[Man With Beard]

Latest AROME has London 32-33C today, and 30C on Monday too.

I note ARPEGE pushes N Ireland back up to 31C by mid week.

[Captain Shortwave]

6 hours ago, Man Without Beard said:

Latest AROME has London 32-33C today, and 30C on Monday too.

I note ARPEGE pushes N Ireland back up to 31C by mid week.

Still there this morning too.

 

Again the next four days should see 30c reached somewhere in the U.K. and likely for Thursday and Friday too given the current output.

IMBY but the transformation for tomorrow is quite something. A couple of days ago the temperatures were struggling to reach average on the models, this morning’s Arpege gives a predicted maximum of 29c. It really shows how much of difference cutting out the sea breeze does.

General outputs, not much change from the last day or so with low pressure moving in next weekend.

[northwestsnow]

EC looks warm right through to Saturday with hopefully a few storns moving in through Saturday  ....

Just a little concern we might be seeing subtle signs of a jet shifting to something more uncomfortable last week of July now ,anticipated by Exeter so maybe not a huge suprise 

[sheikhy]

Whats the models looking like this morning my peeps?!any extension to the warmth to sunday or monday now?!yesterdays 12z extended it another day or two into next weekend!!!

[sheikhy]

2 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Still there this morning too.

 

Again the next four days should see 30c reached somewhere in the U.K. and likely for Thursday and Friday too given the current output.

IMBY but the transformation for tomorrow is quite something. A couple of days ago the temperatures were struggling to reach average on the models, this morning’s Arpege gives a predicted maximum of 29c. It really shows how much of difference cutting out the sea breeze does.

General outputs, not much change from the last day or so with low pressure moving in next weekend.

Any temp charts for tomorrow mate?!!

[mushymanrob]

The GFS appears to be off on one, the anomalies dont agree, but the ecm is much closer to the anomalies IMHO so with the ECM and anomalies in close agreement, then that suggests they are more likely to be closer to the solution. The GFS will change..

 

[Eagle Eye]

GFS and GEM have finally agreed on a date however the differences in position have really changed what's going on with the CAPE almost like a lottery. 

GFS positioning

VS GEM Positioning

So I decided to look at some more Models. 

UKMO

ECMWF

Seemingly GEM has the better positioning at the moment. 

Xander

[ChannelThunder]

GFS/ECM bring in thunderstorms to the South on Friday, but during the morning/afternoon. I prefer the timing on GEM, which slows things down enough for night time storms.

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, Lance M said:

GFS/ECM bring in thunderstorms to the South on Friday, but during the morning/afternoon. I prefer the timing on GEM, which slows things down enough for night time storms.

There is more model agreement as to when the fireworks should go off than there is GFS so hopefully, love a good night-time storm, plus I'll be freee from School on Tuesday 

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

There is more model agreement as to when the fireworks should go off than there is GFS so hopefully, love a good night-time storm, plus I'll be freee from School on Tuesday 

Didn't you say you are 57! Crikey, we could leave school at 15, when are were a lud!

[Captain Shortwave]

23 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Any temp charts for tomorrow mate?!!

 

Well here is the Arpege at least. UKV more restrictive with the warmth in the east, hot in the south west.

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Didn't you say you are 57! Crikey, we could leave school at 15, when are were a lud!

Yes well, I've aged 43 years in the last year, that's what GCSE'S do to you nowadays 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

Yes well, I've aged 43 years in the last year, that's what GCSE'S do to you nowadays 

For that, you can blame the GFS . . . ?

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

For that, you can blame the GFS . . . ?

You can say that reading the GFS Model, doesnt exactly brighten your day up. 

[sheikhy]

26 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

 

Well here is the Arpege at least. UKV more restrictive with the warmth in the east, hot in the south west.

Wow that a massive upgrade!got  newrly30 degrees  all the way to lincolnshire now!!madness!!?!

[viking_smb]

1 hour ago, Lance M said:

GFS/ECM bring in thunderstorms to the South on Friday, but during the morning/afternoon. I prefer the timing on GEM, which slows things down enough for night time storms.

i prefer GFS/ECM on this, i want it during the day 

[Scorcher]

Interesting how the temps for today and tomorrow for this part of the world have been hugely underestimated by the models a couple of days out.

Have the models struggled with the surface flow and overestimated the effects of this perhaps?

High pressure is so strong and winds so light that the breeze from the NW made very little difference to the temps yesterday here.

[Atmogenic]

Fantastic looking models, let's hope it continues for quite sometime as we in the southeast really need this from our depressing cloudy skies, which we've mostly had so far this summer. 

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

The GFS appears to be off on one, the anomalies dont agree, but the ecm is much closer to the anomalies IMHO so with the ECM and anomalies in close agreement, then that suggests they are more likely to be closer to the solution. The GFS will change..

 

............. well that didnt take long did it! lol

The 06z is now (so far) far more aligned to the ECM and anomalies..

 

[minus10]

Gfs6z certainly pushing for heavy rain/storms on Friday in the south after a very warm/hot week...

Edited July 18, 2021 by minus10

[viking_smb]

47 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Gfs6z certainly pushing for heavy rain/storms on Friday in the south after a very warm/hot week...

what do the other models say?

[johnholmes]

for what it is worth, been away from model watching for over a week, but the 500 mb anomaly charts and my take on what, to me, they are showing

Sun 18 July

Ec today not got closed upper low sw uk from sat, shows trough se England into nw Europe then ridge ne of this into e’ern Scandinavia/nw Russia

Noaa has trough bit w of ec and down into Iberia, with –ve heights in this (vry small values; hard to see further e on the projection used, possibly minor contour ridging similar to ec?

Met O model for 22/07 shows uk under upper ridge being replaced by closed trough  by 24 th. This looks right and fits with noaa mean anomaly chart and also ec so fairly clear the ridge type weather is going to be replaced by/in 6-10 day period.

To me I would punt for a break down next w/e, before for some, prob 40-50% thundery, then less heat and humidity to follow in the latter part of the 10 day noaa chart. Its 8-14 day chart shows a w’ly flow into the uk, v minor +ve heights in mid atlantic and the trough e of uk.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[MattStoke]

A cheeky 34’C for the West Country this afternoon from the UKV 9z. We seem to achieve high temperatures (low to mid 30’s) much more easily nowadays.