model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

2019 and 2020 had the hot spells, but to me they won’t go down as great summer months. The nature of the heat last year really pushed the averages up. I think you need the vast majority of the month to be sunny and settled like other great summer months that spring to mind to class as great. Last august had 2 bouts of severe gales twice after that heatwave….and any good summer month of years gone by definitely wouldnt have 2 charts like this included

Thats true, but augusts since 2003 had be pretty poor. Even 2006 and 2013 turned poor after a great July. So 2019/2020 were the best in 16 years! and i agree they werent especially memorable  but having hot spells at least was an improvement.

 

[Mapantz]

Can we keep to model discussion please?!

We have this thread for general chat about Summer.

Cheers.

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO mostly settled to the end of the coming week, winds generally slack and mostly from the south east so it is likely to remain very warm, in fact the small tweaks recently have left the potential for 30c to be reach on most days. GFS still taking the jet stream through the ridge like a knife through butter by the end of the week. Slightly dubious of that.

Arpege

Tomorrow

32c across the Midlands but 30c possible widely.

Monday

 

30c towards the West Midlands and the south west. 31c for Exeter/Taunton?

Tuesday

 

Similar but the heat returning to more eastern areas again.

Wednesday

32c back across central England.

So the chance that we could see 30c+ achieved for at least five days. A nice turnaround from the last couple of weeks, especially further south where unsettled weather has been more prominent.

Edited July 17, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z looks a... ...erm erm..GEM  very warm / hot and anticyclonic with plenty of sunshine, a growing chance of a thundery breakdown towards / during next weekend?...anyway, it’s really very summery for much of the week ahead!! ⛈

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Cracking UKMO out til the end of next week....Hot at times...Dont know how much more I can take I already look like I've been oven baked  

So next week is summery....beyond that it perhaps turns more unsettled with thundery downpours and warm sunny spells...but hopefully this will turn out to be a wee blip! 

Have a cold one for me.

[Timmytour]

1 hour ago, Captain Shortwave said:

UKMO mostly settled to the end of the coming week, winds generally slack and mostly from the south east so it is likely to remain very warm, in fact the small tweaks recently have left the potential for 30c to be reach on most days. GFS still taking the jet stream through the ridge like a knife through butter by the end of the week. Slightly dubious of that.

 

If the GFS was telling us the Atlantic would cut through a beast from the east like that, you know it would be spot on!  

[Djdazzle]

Wasn’t the GFS forecasting the heat to be wiped away by Monday a couple of days ago? Seems it was a bit  progressive, not for the first time.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Smashing ECM out to day 6...I will take that for now..looks like hitting Amazon Prime for some more coconut and moisturising creams ASAP..

That Low could trigger some serious Heat and storm activity..Hope that comes off for you Hard-core chasers..

Edited July 17, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Mike Poole]

Hi folks, 12z’s out and who can spot the odd one out at T144, hint, it is the one I’ve scribbled on in black pen!

Yes, it is GFS that is behind the curve once again.  And it will fall in line with the other models in the next couple of runs and extend the settled hot spell, I think, doesn’t it always?  

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240, well I think that might be high pressure re-nosing (if that is a word) after the brief trough?

[Captain Shortwave]

Yep, low pressure clearing eastwards by day 10. Not bad at all with temperatures always with a shout of hitting 30C even up to this time next week.

Just a couple of notes;

Tomorrow;

The models have been hinting at showers developing tomorrow afternoon mostly down the spine of the country into Lincolnshire and East Anglia. You can see from the surface heights that there is a low level convergence zone that aid the development of showers/thunderstorms.

 

Monday

A shallow low sitting over southern England, again the same scenario of being able to initiate showers despite pressure being high. 

From Tuesday onwards we lose the messy surface pattern and end up with high pressure centred in the north sea and a south easterly flow, so it should become dry for the majority, until we see low pressure move in from the west/south west next weekend.

[Frosty.]

What great charts these are from the ECM 12z operational..I think summers coming guys! ...I mean, what could be better than very warm / hot sunny anticyclonic followed by higher humidity and a growing chance of thunderstorms?...indeed, I think there could be a few storms sparked by the heat before the main thundery breakdown!...anyway, enjoy...but you may need a fan! ⛈ 

Edited July 17, 2021 by Jon Snow

[sheikhy]

Nuttin much to be said except we are in for a heat fest for the next week!!it now extends into next weekend as well!!cant get any better really!!

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Wasn’t the GFS forecasting the heat to be wiped away by Monday a couple of days ago? Seems it was a bit  progressive, not for the first time.

Wednesday, pressure holds an extra 48 hours but models do seem to agree on the weekend.

[Methuselah]

16 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

What great charts these are from the ECM 12z operational..I think summers coming guys! ...I mean, what could be better than very warm / hot sunny anticyclonic followed by higher humidity and a growing chance of thunderstorms?...indeed, I think there could be a few storms sparked by the heat before the main thundery breakdown!...anyway, enjoy...but you may need a fan! ⛈ 

Sure looks like a scorcher to me? Is that one of those old-fashioned disco hits. . .  Or am I losing my mind!

Edited July 17, 2021 by Ed Stone

[mb018538]

33 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240, well I think that might be high pressure re-nosing (if that is a word) after the brief trough?

Doesn’t look like it on that chart, trough moving in from the NW. Azores high is retracted. Think the period from the 24th until the end of the month will be more unsettled than settled.

Marco and the Met still going for a change back to something a bit more settled in early august….be interesting to see how it plays out.

[Scorcher]

29 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Wednesday, pressure holds an extra 48 hours but models do seem to agree on the weekend.

The GFS was at one point showing the heat and high pressure being swept away on Monday. It has performed very poorly recently.

I still think the breakdown may be pushed back further- looks like Friday may be dry and very warm for most now and I wouldn't be surprised if Saturday also ends up good too.

Edited July 17, 2021 by Scorcher

[stodge]

Evening all

Another glorious day here in East London - very warm though a welcome breeze moderated any of that horrible heat and humidity.

Last evening, the models for the end of the week suggested a return to something more "traditional" with perhaps GEM offering more of a hint of a very short-lived "plume". 

Moving ahead and the 500s for T+216 tonight (Monday 26th July). 

Charts from ECM, GEM, JMA, GFS OP and GFS Control

The consequent 850s:

GFS Control is perhaps the most interesting evolution with a defined LP over Germany and a continued wrap of warm air across the British Isles. The other models show cooler air across the British Isles and various degrees of Azores HP influence. GEM and GFS OP look most bullish about a renewed ridging from the south west while ECM, JMA and GFS Control tend to keep the Azores HP suppressed and whether via an upper LP (ECM) or via a more defined Atlantic feature, LP is influencing the weather.

To be honest, we'd better hope the further reaches of GFS OP and Control FI are on the wrong track but they suggest an unsettled end to July.

I'm struggling from the above charts to see much in the way of heat - GEM and JMA have heights to the south west and north east and most of the models keep LP over continental Europe which is a worry for those areas already struggling with the extreme rainfall of recent days.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Last one from me as my fingers are sticking to the the screen

ECM mean fine all week as expected,before something potentially thundery next Weekend..how long does this last? Several days perhaps with Heights pegged back somewhat...at this stage I feel its primed to rebuild right at the end of the month and set to bring a fine start to everybody's month of Hell! Beyond that is above my pay grade...hell even this post is...

Ps there is definitely some spread amongst thise ensembles regarding pressure.. 

 

Edited July 17, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Last one from me as my fingers are sticking the the screen

ECM mean fine all week as expected,before something potentially thundery next Weekend..how long does this last? Several days perhaps with Heights pegged back somewhat...at this stage I feel its primed to rebuild right at the end of the month and set to bring a fine start to everybody's month of Hell! Beyond that is above my pay grade...hell even this post is...

 

yes, Matt, I think august this year may be a pleasant surprise, we haven’t had many of those in recent months, have we?   

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

yes, Matt, I think august this year may be a pleasant surprise, we haven’t had many of those in recent months, have we?   

Yes Mike for sure..im feeling confident of a fine start...how it goes towards mid month is anyone's guess...hopefully plenty of settled conditions..but i wouldn't at all be suprised to see an above average month cet wise. Have a good evening my man

Edited July 17, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Smashing ECM out to day 6...I will take that for now..looks like hitting Amazon Prime for some more coconut and moisturising creams ASAP..

That Low could trigger some serious Heat and storm activity..Hope that comes off for you Hard-core chasers..

I'm waiting and waiting and waiting ... for a model run to disrupt that Atlantic low. At the moment, it's forecast to roll in like a snail paced bowling ball. That hardly ever happens.

I just can't see it not disrupting to some degree and catching a plume in its wake for the end of the week. Not that we'll need that to make it hot, but might just nudge things a bit deeper into the 30Cs.

There was an ECM ensemble set four days ago that only had 1 out of 51 members exceeding 25C in London during this entire spell, so definitely room for manoeuvre yet!

[summer blizzard]

43 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The GFS was at one point showing the heat and high pressure being swept away on Monday. It has performed very poorly recently.

I still think the breakdown may be pushed back further- looks like Friday may be dry and very warm for most now and I wouldn't be surprised if Saturday also ends up good too.

I think your referring to a few days ago when the models pulled the high west, that was supported by the UKMO and kind of happens. It's never showed the actual low moving in before Wednesday though.

Well the models have delayed the cold front which doesn't really go until Sunday but they do now all agree that the high gives way to a low on Fri/Sat with a front/storms thrown up even if still warm on Saturday.

They may delay a little but I doubt they'll change to keep the high.

Edited July 17, 2021 by summer blizzard

[northwestsnow]

Some thunderstorms would be an amazing way to see off another lovely month up here in the NW.

EC looks very warm out to Thurs..Still low 20s  into next weekend,perhaps 

[Mark wheeler]

Wahey , Hot spell extended on the Navgem like others too .  @Man Without Beard those temp charts certainly seemed to come in line now ? . 

Edited July 17, 2021 by Mark wheeler