model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[MATTWOLVES 3]

How on earth can a conclusion be made on possibly writing off the next 5 weeks of Summer on the back of some output that shows more unsettled conditions next Weekend! Or who would really cancel a trip on the back of the GFS operational! I really do find some comments utterly bizarre at times in this place!

Yes it looks grand for a few more days yet,and very warm even Hot at times! Things could become more unsettled next Weekend...but that's not a given! And it surely does not mean that an unsettled trend will see the rest of Summer out. If anything the 0z mean as the situation quickly improving from the South. Its not looking that bad to me.

Edited July 17, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[sheikhy]

7 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

How on earth can a conclusion be made on possibly writing off the next 5 weeks of Summer on the back of some output that shows more unsettled conditions next Weekend! Or who would really cancel a trip on the back of the GFS operational! I really do find some comments utterly bizarre at times in this place!

Yes it looks grand for a few more days yet,and very warm even Hot at times! Things could become more unsettled next Weekend...but that's not a given! And it surely does not mean that an unsettled trend will see the rest of Summer out. If anything the 0z mean as the situation quickly improving from the South. Its not looking that bad to me.

Mate the output looks stonktastic till next friday or saturday!!!!i couldnt care less wa happens after that cos its still a week away!!hopefully changes for the better!!

[Djdazzle]

I’m certainly not writing off August based on the output. My point was merely that my expectations of the month are very low these days!

[Captain Shortwave]

Still looks like turning more unsettled next weekend.

 

We could still see a decent day in the east as the low makes very slow progress. Beyond, well until we see the low clear then we shouldn’t make assumptions of what happens next. The GEFs essentially look like the default summer pattern, not sure whether that is a genuine signal or it is struggling to decipher the way forward.

As I will state again, there might be low pressure overhead, but it will be warm or very warm in the sunnier spells. However there will be a significant chance of some very potent and slow moving showers and thunderstorms are possible just about anywhere.

Before then, near enough a solid week of widespread decent weather with very warm conditions and good sunny spells. Just the risk of a shower here and there if the pattern allows it. Monday and Tuesday appear to be more likely days for this.

Edited July 17, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[MATTWOLVES 3]

A very fair and sensible summary from CS above.. obviously a week a way in forecasting in the UK is a lifetime! Most ensembles agree on things becoming more unstable next Weekend,but that could have its perks with thundery activity hopefully! and it could still remain warm throughout that period! Beyond that we have numerous ensembles bringing about that rinse and repeat scenario...so things becoming settled again and perhaps even very warm at times..We also have some ensemble members having the troughs stick around for longer...but at this stage I think we would be have to be pretty dam unlucky to end up stuck under a trough for 2-3 weeks like the last time...all to play for...but in the shorter term enjoy the next week for sure.

Edited July 17, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[mb018538]

41 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I’m certainly not writing off August based on the output. My point was merely that my expectations of the month are very low these days!

It’s bizarre really. August used to sometimes deliver some amazing months, but in the last 20 years it’s been utter garbage on the whole. Quite often September has been better - a shade cooler but much more settled, with some notable warm or hot weather thrown in.

Im definitely not going to write the month off as you never know what will happen, I just feel that global circulations/patterns aren’t really in our favour as I’ve said a few times. Would be nice to see a half decent august for once though.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It’s bizarre really. August used to sometimes deliver some amazing months, but in the last 20 years it’s been utter garbage on the whole. Quite often September has been better - a shade cooler but much more settled, with some notable warm or hot weather thrown in.

Im definitely not going to write the month off as you never know what will happen, I just feel that global circulations/patterns aren’t really in our favour as I’ve said a few times. Would be nice to see a half decent august for once though.

Expectation wise both September and May are usually more reliable for sun and settled conditions. Obviously a week or so of good weather bucked that trend a touch last year.

[chapmanslade]

13 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It’s bizarre really. August used to sometimes deliver some amazing months, but in the last 20 years it’s been utter garbage on the whole. Quite often September has been better - a shade cooler but much more settled, with some notable warm or hot weather thrown in.

 

Data doesn't really back up your assertions

 

• UK daylight hours by month 2020 | Statista

• UK: number of rain days 2021 | Statista

• Average temperature UK 2020 | Statista

 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

Data doesn't really back up your assertions

 

• UK daylight hours by month 2020 | Statista

• UK: number of rain days 2021 | Statista

• Average temperature UK 2020 | Statista

 

I think it’s a perception thing, September is clearly cooler than august but if pull August apart, especially in parts of south average sunshine amounts in the last 15years are something like 15-20% down on the prior 15years. Will dig out the stats later. 

[Mark wheeler]

Well my friends we are now enjoying the start of the best summer spell of the year . I also have a treat in store . 
 

Yes you have guessed it , or maybe not ! The mighty mighty Navgem is back on meteociel ( I've only just noticed anyway )  and it looks lovely for the next week with the warmest air not moving away until Saturday and of course that's a long way off and could change . Here it is in all its glory . Enjoy the upcoming spell . Regards Mark

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

How on earth can a conclusion be made on possibly writing off the next 5 weeks of Summer on the back of some output that shows more unsettled conditions next Weekend! Or who would really cancel a trip on the back of the GFS operational! I really do find some comments utterly bizarre at times in this place!

Yes it looks grand for a few more days yet,and very warm even Hot at times! Things could become more unsettled next Weekend...but that's not a given! And it surely does not mean that an unsettled trend will see the rest of Summer out. If anything the 0z mean as the situation quickly improving from the South. Its not looking that bad to me.

Because its August , the new month of Autumn 

[Eagle Eye]

Here's a short introduction to what seems to be on the latest Models about next week even though GFS and GEM don't agree on the timing. 

On the day that it happens, some typical hefty rain moves across France with some storms built in, however what is better to look at is next to this rain where some hefty CAPE Values could build up along with some in the South perhaps igniting some lightning as the frontal rain clips the South in the early evening. 

As these storms build up to the East of this rain their track seems to be splitting where one moves into Germany and sorrounding Nations, however another part of these strong storms that builds up moves across the channel where we see those 1000 J/Kg CAPE Values in the previous chart. 

With the timings not even sorted to the day on the Models yet, I reckon that we could potentially see a round two to this build up across the Channel, with this GFS indicating the Storms coming at a similar timing to the ones Late July 2019. When, Multiple rounds of storms although most just brushed the coast of the South East followed after an evening storm went mad, I still remember it over me. 

GEM at the time GFS brings the Storms. 

VS GFS

VS GEM at the time that it brings the Storms. 

A lot of it has to do with the positioning of the boundary and of course that is why there is still issues with timing even to the point of GEM doing it one day later. 

Xander

[MATTWOLVES 3]

27 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Because its August , the new month of Autumn 

I'm not going to get into a debate on how poor recent August's have been...trying to make forecasts based on previous years is fraught with error! If it was that simple we would have all called a glorious May,based on the fact the last few had been great! Well this one surely bucked that trend. Weather patterns are changing for sure...not just here,but Globally! So its going to become extremely difficult to know where we are heading further down the line...enjoy your Weekend.

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

It’s bizarre really. August used to sometimes deliver some amazing months, but in the last 20 years it’s been utter garbage on the whole. Quite often September has been better - a shade cooler but much more settled, with some notable warm or hot weather thrown in.

Im definitely not going to write the month off as you never know what will happen, I just feel that global circulations/patterns aren’t really in our favour as I’ve said a few times. Would be nice to see a half decent august for once though.

True Augusts for over 15 years have been poor ( since 2003?) ... but 2019 had a heatwave over the bank holiday and August 2020 was very warm, CET was +2c, we had 6 consecutive days where 34c+ was recorded, 5 tropical nights, 4 daily temperature records broken.... so maybe the trend of poor Augusts has changed.

Edited July 17, 2021 by mushymanrob

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

True Augusts for over 15 years have been poor ( since 2003?) ... but 2019 had a heatwave over the bank holiday and August 2020 was very warm, CET was +2c, we had 6 consecutive days where 34c+ was recorded, 5 tropical nights, 4 daily temperature records broken.... so maybe the trend of poor Augusts has changed.

Last August went downhill rapidly after the first week though. It wasn’t dreadful, but nothing special. The CET was helped massively by the early heatwave.

[sheikhy]

Any freshly updated ukv charts for the next couple of days?!!

[Methuselah]

Not a bad GFS 06z today; rather good, in fact:

    

    

    

[mushymanrob]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

Last August went downhill rapidly after the first week though. It wasn’t dreadful, but nothing special. The CET was helped massively by the early heatwave.

The whole month of August has never been dry hot summy from the 1st - 31st , not even the great Augusts of 2003, 1995, 1983, so dismissing the whole of the month because the early hot spell didnt last is.... well... foolish and inaccurate. And August with a hot spell followed by "average" is about as much as we can expect realistically - if we get a week of heat this year, ill be happy with that.

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

The whole month of August has never been dry hot summy from the 1st - 31st , not even the great Augusts of 2003, 1995, 1983, so dismissing the whole of the month because the early hot spell didnt last is.... well... foolish and inaccurate. And August with a hot spell followed by "average" is about as much as we can expect realistically - if we get a week of heat this year, ill be happy with that.

Really Aug 95 stands head and shoulders above every other August. The first 21days were all above 25C, every day above 22C only 4mm of rain. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

20 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

The whole month of August has never been dry hot summy from the 1st - 31st , not even the great Augusts of 2003, 1995, 1983, so dismissing the whole of the month because the early hot spell didnt last is.... well... foolish and inaccurate. And August with a hot spell followed by "average" is about as much as we can expect realistically - if we get a week of heat this year, ill be happy with that.

Good summary there mush...perhaps some people's expectations are getting skewered by the ever warming climate! If you listen to some of the thoughts from top scientists it's only a matter of time before spells like 95 and 2018 become commonplace...coupled with the fact early Spring Heatwaves and warm spells in February are leading to much higher expectations for Summers! 

Not a bad 6z run by the way.

[minus10]

Gfs6z brings back the heat later on

Could be 'interesting'  if this verified....(unlikely)

[mb018538]

36 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

True Augusts for over 15 years have been poor ( since 2003?) ... but 2019 had a heatwave over the bank holiday and August 2020 was very warm, CET was +2c, we had 6 consecutive days where 34c+ was recorded, 5 tropical nights, 4 daily temperature records broken.... so maybe the trend of poor Augusts has changed.

2019 and 2020 had the hot spells, but to me they won’t go down as great summer months. The nature of the heat last year really pushed the averages up. I think you need the vast majority of the month to be sunny and settled like other great summer months that spring to mind to class as great. Last august had 2 bouts of severe gales twice after that heatwave….and any good summer month of years gone by definitely wouldnt have 2 charts like this included

[Djdazzle]

Add to above - August 2019 was rescued by the amazing bank holiday weekend. Sunday, Monday and Tuesday saw three consecutive days of 33C in London - quite exceptional for late August.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Add to above - August 2019 was rescued by the amazing bank holiday weekend. Sunday, Monday and Tuesday saw three consecutive days of 33C in London - quite exceptional for late August.

About as exceptional has 21C in February perhaps!

6z mean goes for a rinse and repeat pattern from next Weekend....so if that pattern holds...not too bad at all. Enjoy the sun if you can peeps...

[Timmytour]

5 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

I’m certainly not writing off August based on the output. My point was merely that my expectations of the month are very low these days!

I think your expectations must have been formed in the mid 90s

Average of rolling 10 day max CETs  for August split into ten day periods (excludes 31st August)

 

Edited July 17, 2021 by Timmytour