model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Singularity]

The GFS standoff against the other models is actually one of those ‘saggy bottom sagas’ that we’ve all too often seen curtail a bitter easterly chance.

Which is to say, the high tends to sag to the southeast like the other models are predicting.

[Frosty.]

I’m very happy with the Ukmo 12h...let me explain, I like high pressure and warm temperatures and the Ukmo apparently ticks all the right boxes!  

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Loving the models output and next week looks hot but are we anywhere near unleashing a real Satin from the South so we can enjoy a two/three day'er inside a humid sauna? Southerlies this summer seem to be absent with everything coming from East. 

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z is a...now what’s the word I’m looking for......I got it, moment there...it’s a GEM ?......really superb summery conditions and thundery plume develops too..my idea of summer heaven! ...fingers crossed etc!  

 

 

 

Edited July 16, 2021 by Jon Snow

[sheikhy]

Hot ecm up to 144 hours so far!!!!!even mondays cooling off is downgrading by the minute!!!10 degree 850s covering most of england throughout now!!

[Mike Poole]

Model comparison T144, UKMO, ECM,  GEM and GFS:

ECM most similar to UKMO at this point.  But GFS the outlier in the extent that the strength of the high is reduced.

Edited July 16, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Captain Shortwave]

Regarding Monday

Quite a slack and messy surface pattern. It could very well be possible to get another widespread very warm day here away from coasts where sea breezes develop. Of course we are at the mercy of mid/high level cloud that could have been introduced by the very weak cold front.

Regardless good consistency from the European models with high pressure likely to last until the end of next week.

Another slow breakdown coming up…

There does appear to be a shallow secondary system ahead of the parent low, with could provide something more organised from the Biscay region. Like the last run I suspect this will turn into a humid and showery pattern for the last two frames.

[MattStoke]

UKV upping the weekend temperatures slightly. 30’C for parts of Yorkshire and the North Midlands on Saturday. 30-31’C in similar areas on Sunday, with 32’C in London.

[Mapantz]

32°C showing up for Sunday on the UKV:

Monday's chart pretty much the same as what was showing a day or two ago:

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

32°C showing up for Sunday on the UKV:

Monday's chart pretty much the same as what was showing a day or two ago:

Interesting. Think Monday is quite an unusual pattern so the forecasts vary a lot. Most here are 23c now, but that still shows 26/27c….the W/SW corner the place to be though. Could see 30c three days in a row.

[Frosty.]

A largely very summery ECM 12z operational this evening, 564 dam, plenty of high pressure then a thundery spell? uppers (850’s) are respectable even by day 10...and, I honestly get the impression that this will become a rinse and repeat pattern for the rest of this summer?...just my opinion?... ..maybe others agree?! ⛈ ....sun worshippers and storm fans could be in for a treat?!  

 

Edited July 16, 2021 by Jon Snow

[stodge]

Evening all

Hard to enjoy the coming weekend reflecting on the terrible events in Germany.

Hopefully they will get some time and calmer conditions to carry out recovery and rescue operations and start the process of repair and reconstruction.

Back here and the usual evening look ahead to Sunday week, July 25th. 

Starting with the 500s from the 12Zs that are out - ECM, GEM, JMA, GFS OP, GFS Control.

The equivalent 850s:

GEM sticks out as the model for fans of heat tonight. The T+192 has the +20c isotherm crossing southern Britain and while it's fleeting, it's the most bullish of the output by far for heat fans. The 500 chart explains why as it makes more of the HP to the east which keeps the core of the Atlantic trough that bit further to the west and allows more time for advection of hot air from the south.

To be blunt, it's on its own among the Operational set. The others keep the heat well to the south and by T+216 the Atlantic trough is in charge - it's a slack feature but enough to bring rain or showers for most. The Azores HP is around or just to the west of the Azores (as you might expect) but isn't in a position to help much at this point though I suspect there will be another attempt to build a ridge back NE into NW Europe and the British Isles. Heights remain low over much of Continental Europe with, GEM excepted, any heights well to the east keeping a flow of warm air over eastern Scandinavia.

 

[Mike Poole]

All good until T168 on the ECM moyenne (mean):

With the trough lifting out at T240 ready for the next ridge of high pressure:

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z I certainly wouldn’t rule out a plume across the s / se in the mid range (towards the end of next week)?...it seems as though the near continent is a safer bet but perhaps southern u k too?...one to watch!...anyway, lots of summery weather to enjoy either way!  

[Eagle Eye]

Having looked at the main models before writing this post here's my veiw on the two Models which I look at most. 

GFS

GFS has slowly inclined into this since I first noticed this on GEM however today, words cannot describe the amount of instability on the Models and the potential Thunderstorms chancing themselves than previously on Modelling. 

GEM has been downgrading CAPE slowly over time however it has held strong in this run however goes a day later with the Thunderstorms. 

 

[Don]

3 hours ago, MattStoke said:

UKV upping the weekend temperatures slightly. 30’C for parts of Yorkshire and the North Midlands on Saturday. 30-31’C in similar areas on Sunday, with 32’C in London.

That happens a lot these days with predicted temperatures to upgrade during hot spells!  Won't be at all surprised if London hits 33C Sunday, in fact I will be more surprised if it doesn't!

[damianslaw]

7 hours ago, carinthian said:

 I am not sure as to the reason as to the extended period of blocking over Western Europe. There are lots of scientific theories as to what may be causing this but none conclusive as yet.  However, I do know that there has been a prolonged disruption to the normal Rossby Wave pattern into Western Europe for much of this year .

C

Low solar energy cycle?

[Man With Beard]

20 minutes ago, Don said:

That happens a lot these days with predicted temperatures to upgrade during hot spells!  Won't be at all surprised if London hits 33C Sunday, in fact I will be more surprised if it doesn't!

ECM has raw temps no higher than 28C this weekend. It is rarely more than 4C too low except at Heathrow in a plume. I would expect a max of 31 or 32, but no more.

[Man With Beard]

As you were this morning out until next Friday, when the start of a breakdown may happen. ECM has a thunder risk in the south between Monday and Wednesday; other models are less interested.

Edited July 17, 2021 by Man Without Beard

[Methuselah]

Aye, 'as you were' probably the right idea -- GFS 00Z:

    

    

    

And the operational run is once again bumbling along the bottom end of the ensemble:

  

[mb018538]

I reckon enjoy the next week or so folks. Warm dry and settled on the whole - but by the time we get to next weekend it’ll be a very different picture! I have a sinking feeling that once the trough moves in next week we might not see any more lasting settled weather through the summer. One to watch.

This mornings UKV run actually has 32c being reached somewhere in the UK on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday….with 30c today and on Wednesday. It’s very bullish about the higher upper temps holding throughout though.

[slater]

15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I reckon enjoy the next week or so folks. Warm dry and settled on the whole - but by the time we get to next weekend it’ll be a very different picture! I have a sinking feeling that once the trough moves in next week we might not see any more lasting settled weather through the summer. One to watch.

This mornings UKV run actually has 32c being reached somewhere in the UK on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday….with 30c today and on Wednesday. It’s very bullish about the higher upper temps holding throughout though.

If we went back into the model forum archive for this time every year this is the normal tread, with the schools breaking up.

[MattStoke]

UKV really upping the temperatures next week. 30’C+ somewhere in the U.K. every day up to and including Wednesday, which is as far as the model runs out to.

Edited July 17, 2021 by MattStoke

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I reckon enjoy the next week or so folks. Warm dry and settled on the whole - but by the time we get to next weekend it’ll be a very different picture! I have a sinking feeling that once the trough moves in next week we might not see any more lasting settled weather through the summer. One to watch.

This mornings UKV run actually has 32c being reached somewhere in the UK on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday….with 30c today and on Wednesday. It’s very bullish about the higher upper temps holding throughout though.

The next few days will be absolutely glorious, but the trend beyond next weekend does appear to start to have that look to it. Could easily see a run of slow moving troughs from the northwest like late June. Starting worry desperately about the last weekend of July as GFS just keeps churning out a very deep trough being parked over the UK - might as well cancel my trip now. 

[Djdazzle]

I always expect August to be poor as  the whole dynamic of the month seems to have changed in the last two decades.