model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[sheikhy]

Any downgrades on the latest updates of the ukv for sunday monday?!!!

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Ir will likely be GFS being correct as the model showing the worst outcome is usually correct. That’s the way it seems to go more often than not in the UK!

Let’s see what ECM says later.

Hold on. Pretty sure I’ve trademarked that line. But you’re probably be right

[Mike Poole]

ECM out to T96:

Where’s your money?  ECM hold for me.

[Guest]

The GFS ensembles starting to look mediocre at best with surface conditions trending poor beyond the end of next week. It’s entirely possible the next 3-5days could effectively be summer 2021 given August the most part for the last 18years is an extension of August. 
 

PS - those in the south it’s flying ant day tomorrow, they’ve just started coming out here!! 
 

[Mike Poole]

11 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The GFS ensembles starting to look mediocre at best with surface conditions trending poor beyond the end of next week. It’s entirely possible the next 3-5days could effectively be summer 2021 given August the most part for the last 18years is an extension of August. 
 

PS - those in the south it’s flying ant day tomorrow, they’ve just started coming out here!! 
 

Always been fascinated by flying ants day, and its link to the weather!  

It usually is in the first thundery day after a heatwave earlier, or if not, as this year, the first really hot day.  Just my observation, anyone else have any views?  

ECM T168 is a good chart:

Nothing dirty coming round from the east, and potential for later plume from the west.  

Edit, I think the first time this summer, I’ve looked at the uppers, there hasn’t been the need thus far, anyway, all good at T168:

Edited July 15, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

GEFS ensembles seem okay:      

[HellItsHot]

16 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The GFS ensembles starting to look mediocre at best with surface conditions trending poor beyond the end of next week. It’s entirely possible the next 3-5days could effectively be summer 2021 given August the most part for the last 18years is an extension of August. 
 

PS - those in the south it’s flying ant day tomorrow, they’ve just started coming out here!! 
 

Have you ever thought about a job with the Samaritans? 
 

I like the way the ECM pans out. 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, HellItsHot said:

Have you ever thought about a job with the Samaritans? 
 

I like the way the ECM pans out. 

I understand EXIT are recruiting just now?

[northwestsnow]

Loving the little cold pool to the NE..❤

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

GEFS ensembles seem okay:      

Coming from the person that thinks a stonking great trough parked across the UK is ‘nae bad’ your assessment doesn’t fill me with a lot of hope. 
 

ECM ok-ish next week, it remains pretty cloudy in the main at times though, still not sure it would be that cloudy given the setup…

[Djdazzle]

I think cloud predictions are almost as poor as the precipitation predictions!

[stodge]

Evening all

Disappointing here in downtown east London though the clearance from the north has arrived in the past hour. Dry but a fresh N'ly wind certainly took the edge off the temperature.

Moving on and with our fine spell starting tomorrow, time to see where we may be the weekend after next.

The T+216 charts tonight take us to Saturday July 24th.

12Z 500s from ECM, GEM, JMA, GFS OP and GFS Control.

The resulting 850s:

A lot of agreement across the models tonight which you don't always see at this range. The "plume" tries to push north in the middle of next week but is soon swept aside as the Atlantic rolls in - I suspect only temporarily as the Azores HP looks set to ridge back across from the south west.

The broad pattern remains what it has been for several weeks - the Azores HP is further south and west than we would like or expect - weak heights to the north and east (note the 850s over Scandinavia on ECM and GEM) and between these two the trough comes down from the north west and sits over the British Isles and north-west Europe. Europe remains covered by a shallow trough (which explains a lot of the persistently stormy weather, almost monsoon-like in my view and perhaps a precursor of a shift toward weather patterns more akin to the Indian sub-continent) as the usual heights from the south-west aren't getting through and the usual heights to the east are further north and weaker. 

As I've said before, we may need some extra-tropical energy to give the very slack pattern a kick.

[Frosty.]

I may be no expert but most of the ECM 12z operational looks summery to me, sure there’s a blink and you miss it cooler interlude early next week but then temperatures rocket again for a time and even at the end the uppers (850’s) look respectable for mid summer (ish)! ⛈ 

 

[mushymanrob]

NOAAS are consistent, and havnt changed much. both charts follow theirprevious evolution.

Next weeks shallow surface low tracks just west of Biscay, high pressure remains in place to our near Northeast on the 6-10 dayer,. That suggests a return of the hoter thundery conditions with a southeasterly draft.

The 8-14 dayer suggests the shallow surface trough driftes Eastward and covers a larger are including southern UK. High pressure to our North weakens, the Azores high strengthens.  Warm but showery and thundery, cloudiest in the East, pleasant warm in the West., driest in the north.

Not too bad overall unless its 30c+ and clear blue sunshine you want.

 

[Mapantz]

UKV still going for 25 - 29°C on Monday, covering a fair swathe of the South, highest temps in the Southwest. Also worth noting; Some sharp showers possibly cropping up due to convergence. Still a long way off for absolute details, of course.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

12z mean is decent enough.. Still plenty of settled conditions around for much of the run. I think when you consider the biblical and dangerous rainfall endured in parts of Western Europe this week,we are very lucky! 

I won't bore you any longer,have a very good evening.

[h2005__uk__]

Where are the hottest temps likely to be on Sunday then? It seemed to be the Midlands but now it seems to be more like the usual London area (if I'm correct).

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Usual "heatwave" drivel being churned out from GFS in the final week of July. I'll refrain from posting sunshine icons and smiley faces until I see charts like this in 5 day range. 

[summer blizzard]

Still messy but the Euro and GFS tonight do shift the high for a day 7/8 breakdown.

 

[mb018538]

Models now starting to sniff out the breakdown of this weather at the end of next week....though it's looking pretty warm and settled in many areas until then, so enjoy the nice weather!

UKMO has the high just about hanging on through Friday, so perhaps Friday could be the last decent day



The question is - what happens after? Do we get locked back into an unsettled pattern, or does high pressure rebuild?

ECM anoms from yesterday show the high retreating back west into the Atlantic, with some ridging to the east, which could leave us in a flabby no mans land kind of situation. Yesterday's updated ECM regime frequency plot has also changed away from the solid red block domination in early August, with Atlantic ridge/no regime favoured.




Which could mean a bit of this. Neither one thing or t'other.


 

Edited July 16, 2021 by mb018538

[Captain Shortwave]

For most of England and Wales conditions look very good. 30c still possible on both days this weekend with Sunday probably looking more widespread.

Saturday

Sunday

 

Just a note - There is the small signal for one or two showers developing during the afternoon (Probably East Midlands/Lincolnshire), otherwise fine and sunny.

Next week, Monday looks a little cooler with the highest temperatures towards Southern and more Western parts (high twenties), temperatures still respectable on the Arpege in the east and I suspect the same would be said of the UKMO/GEM. Rest of the week will probably return us to more widespread very warm conditions but we would need to pull in some warmer air from the south ahead of that low to threaten the 30c mark again. Still very decent for what will be the start of the school summer holiday.

[mb018538]

24 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

For most of England and Wales conditions look very good. 30c still possible on both days this weekend with Sunday probably looking more widespread.

Saturday

Sunday

 

Just a note - There is the small signal for one or two showers developing during the afternoon (Probably East Midlands/Lincolnshire), otherwise fine and sunny.

Next week, Monday looks a little cooler with the highest temperatures towards Southern and more Western parts (high twenties), temperatures still respectable on the Arpege in the east and I suspect the same would be said of the UKMO/GEM. Rest of the week will probably return us to more widespread very warm conditions but we would need to pull in some warmer air from the south ahead of that low to threaten the 30c mark again. Still very decent for what will be the start of the school summer holiday.

Most of the schools here still have another week to run and don't break up until next Friday 23rd!....could be that the decent weather goes for a Burton just as the kids finish here! Hoping not, my holiday to Dorset on the 31st July will be coming into model view pretty soon, and I'm just hoping I don't get a washout.

[mb018538]

The ECM 00z run shows a disturbance on Sunday now with cloud and some showers possible. Hopefully these stay away and don't ruin what should be the best day of summer so far. Certainly goes against other forecasts (BBC/MetO) I've seen which largely go for unbroken sunshine all day in most areas.

Edited July 16, 2021 by mb018538

[sheikhy]

Fantastic ukmo and ecm up to 144 hours so far!!!!!bring it on!!!!

[Methuselah]

GEFS 00Z run looks interesting: heat at times, rain at times, sunshine at times, and no cold nights to speak of:

    

    

    

Shame the 30C 'barrier' looks certain to be breached; a warm summer without a 30C, would've been a talking-point for years!

Edited July 16, 2021 by Ed Stone