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Model output discussion 11th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
37 minutes ago, Iceman2606 said:

UKV 15z looking hot for the weekend this evening with mid to high 20's quite widely & maybe low 30's on Sunday.

15_72_max_temp.thumb.png.63e7a8cd0dfbaa8f5e644888fd085436.png15_96_max_temp.thumb.png.f90e7e3352be5376856d0a8d786ead17.png15_120_max_temp.thumb.png.10050ca75b912f39a9c708c6dc9d6e66.png

Doesn't take long for the usual N/S split syndrome to rear its ugly head and keep Scotland held back in the mucky teens when only two days ago they were showing high 20s

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
17 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Doesn't take long for the usual N/S split syndrome to rear its ugly head and keep Scotland held back in the mucky teens when only two days ago they were showing high 20s

A cold front is forecast to move around the high on Sunday and into Monday bringing cooler uppers to northern parts. 

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Hmm, probably even more confusion this morning. GFS and it’s entire ensemble pack now unanimously going for a rapid cool down Sunday/Monday with only areas to the south west of London above average on Monday now…..It’s either bossing the other models or being way to aggressive.

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UKMO and GEM appear to be much less aggressive and consequently keep it much milder right through to at T168, GEM keeps mid 20s going through large parts all week.
 

ICON never really gets the cold front down over the south and temps stay in the mid to high 20s through all of next week. 
 

ECM over to you…..

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Let's have a look at the morning model runs then...

ARPEGE now showing 29c in multiple areas Saturday, and 31c in the London area Sunday afternoon, and very warm or hot across a large area:

image.thumb.png.d87f4e2fbca6509ccb7da3aa19fb87c9.pngimage.thumb.png.94bcc9f540c63206f043c772d98036e1.png


UKMO still looking good until Thursday at least next week. Trough approaching from the SW making slower progress and high pressure hanging on. Remaining warm or very warm with very light winds:


image.thumb.png.d634972f1eeb821aa7452fd593e2180b.pngimage.thumb.png.65fd834b59fd010c262aae964d768efd.pngimage.thumb.png.3794205982682be6254d2575a5f87705.png

GFS much more aggressive with the cooler air, though temperatures still holding in the low to mid twenties through the week in varying locations. It makes a little bit of a cold front dropping south on Monday with this upper trough, though most areas seeing very little in the way of rain:

image.thumb.png.2477e546b433ec945e312231069175e5.pngimage.thumb.png.9afb54aff880a06385138f7fd08ddd78.png

GEM fairly similar, though locations of where it'll be warm or cooler vary between models. Let's see what ECM says.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.be2b6c8227ccaa9085961dd916011329.png

A very classic UK chart there again - another 1021mb 'low' over the UK on Tuesday to muck up the day for many areas 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.4d95a97263b18d85efacccd56fac772b.pngimage.thumb.png.f9365fc339b3657bb85a3b6bde962f55.png

UKMO and ECM are almost identical at 144 hours. Good consistency. No isobars over the UK means a very still early to middle part of the week!

By Tue/Wed the high is such a weak and feeble affair, there is still a trough trapped over the UK - which will probably mean more cloud and some showers. Temperatures holding up as fairly respectable for most, into the low/mid 20s:

image.thumb.png.3ed9b201c2a16e13999f0de66e5dd37a.pngimage.thumb.png.e81eff8b6ec22c9bd7f1e654a01c670a.png

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

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Decent end to the week on the ECM run. It does show cloud cover almost everywhere on both Thursday and Friday, but i think it's being too pessimistic again. Temperatures mid twenties, up to around 26-27c in places.

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4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

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Decent end to the week on the ECM run. It does show cloud cover almost everywhere on both Thursday and Friday, but i think it's being too pessimistic again. Temperatures mid twenties, up to around 26-27c in places.

Yup, uppers of 14C, a completely slack affair, no undercut, I would expect that to equate to 30C. 

Edited by Alderc
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
18 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.4d95a97263b18d85efacccd56fac772b.pngimage.thumb.png.f9365fc339b3657bb85a3b6bde962f55.png

UKMO and ECM are almost identical at 144 hours. Good consistency. No isobars over the UK means a very still early to middle part of the week!

By Tue/Wed the high is such a weak and feeble affair, there is still a trough trapped over the UK - which will probably mean more cloud and some showers. Temperatures holding up as fairly respectable for most, into the low/mid 20s:

image.thumb.png.3ed9b201c2a16e13999f0de66e5dd37a.pngimage.thumb.png.e81eff8b6ec22c9bd7f1e654a01c670a.png

It isn’t really a trough, more a combination of a decayed cold front and a very slack pattern over the U.K. producing convergence zones for showers. Given pressure is somewhat high than the couple of events this week then it wouldn’t surprise me if this was nothing more than a couple of scattered showers whilst most simply see a bit more high cloud or lower level stuff bubbling up in the afternoon. A decent trend at least to make far less of that system, though reasonable agreement on a cold front sinking south late on Sunday into Monday.

The ECM/UKMO look very decent, whilst the temperatures will probably peak over the weekend, the following week looks decent under light and variable winds, the temperatures may start to lift a little again as the pattern begins to drift east.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Sunday now clearly the hottest day, with a half change of getting to 30C imo. 

Shows how small changes in orientation can change temperature profiles, as half the country were struggling to get into the low 20s a couple of days ago.

Currently looking like staying reasonably hot for the upcoming 7 day period, without ever reaching dizzy heights.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

It isn’t really a trough, more a combination of a decayed cold front and a very slack pattern over the U.K. producing convergence zones for showers. Given pressure is somewhat high than the couple of events this week then it wouldn’t surprise me if this was nothing more than a couple of scattered showers whilst most simply see a bit more high cloud or lower level stuff bubbling up in the afternoon.

The ECM/UKMO look very decent, whilst the temperatures will probably peak over the weekend, the following week looks decent under light and variable winds, the temperatures may start to lift a little again as the pattern begins to drift east.

I'd agree with that. If the ECM is still showing 26/27c being reached with cloud cover, it wouldn't take much of a shift away from this to add a few degrees on. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.2cee5f6a2caaf0963c179178ce6654a9.pngimage.thumb.png.0bd1834f9370e1e8b296cb66af46c842.png

The other good thing on the ECM run is that the main trough out to the W/SW ends up tracking north into Iceland rather than ploughing across the UK....so that next to no rain makes it:
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The 10 day accumulated ppn charts is also very dry:

image.thumb.png.c80dfc449c5a8a9fac4393b5e73a4792.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.7be35ab0090506de6d74687439e0ba94.png

Every day we've got closer to Sunday....the UKV has just got hotter and hotter! Look how many 30/31c areas there are on the latest forecast! 

I should also add that it has 32c forecast for Monday too in S Wales/Pershore area:

image.thumb.png.cadb51099a4c02286a0eaacd4f623e2a.png
 

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.7be35ab0090506de6d74687439e0ba94.png

Every day we've got closer to Sunday....the UKV has just got hotter and hotter! Look how many 30/31c areas there are on the latest forecast! 

Looks like i shall be delivering in my hawaiin shorts on sunday!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Telford, 160m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Cold, Thunder, Heat
  • Location: Telford, 160m asl
3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.7be35ab0090506de6d74687439e0ba94.png

Every day we've got closer to Sunday....the UKV has just got hotter and hotter! Look how many 30/31c areas there are on the latest forecast! 

I really wish I hadn't arranged to take my daughter on a long drive to an indoor soft play area on Sunday now! I like how the models are mostly keeping warm air over towards West Wales for as long as possible, I'm going there the weekend of the 24th-25th, that needs to keep up!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

I must admit I'm very frustrated this morning by what I'm seeing for the weekend- if the GFS is correct, Friday could well be warmer than Sunday in my area now.

It looked for a long time like NW England could be one of the hotspots in this spell, now we might be struggling to get out of the low 20s on Sunday if the GFS is on the money. Monday barely reaching 20C now according to GFS- absolutely gutted.

Even by the standards of the UK, we've been incredibly unlucky so far this summer, with many promising scenarios just not delivering sunshine and heat.

I can only hope the ECM is right for next week as it would make up for the weekend disappointment to a large degree.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
18 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.7be35ab0090506de6d74687439e0ba94.png

Every day we've got closer to Sunday....the UKV has just got hotter and hotter! Look how many 30/31c areas there are on the latest forecast! 

I should also add that it has 32c forecast for Monday too in S Wales/Pershore area:

image.thumb.png.cadb51099a4c02286a0eaacd4f623e2a.png
 

Holy crap monday has improved drastically!!!was showing 23 or 24 degrees for the midlands on the 15z but now its more like 31!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
17 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Looks like i shall be delivering in my hawaiin shorts on sunday!!!!

Watch out, ladies . . . Shakey's coming!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

GEM is a classic for storm lovers with a lot coming up from France along with homegrown storms across the country, GFS goes a lot more Conservative though so this could either be a classic or a dud. 

 

gemeuw-11-108 (2).png

gemeuw-11-204 (1).png

gemeuw-11-228 (2).png

gemeuw-11-234 (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
13 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Holy crap monday has improved drastically!!!was showing 23 or 24 degrees for the midlands on the 15z but now its more like 31!!!!

It's very dependent on where the cold front sits...

UKV still has 850 temps at 15c Monday afternoon which translates to this heat, with the decaying front still in the north. ECM has much faster progress, so while it's still a warm day, it's nowhere near 32c:

image.thumb.png.712ed5507ffaad416932f00d2628f13b.pngimage.thumb.png.6ac912f2018bc0ea95f0c9a459fb2e51.png

Latest fax appears to hold the heat in the S/SW into Monday like the UKV, latest Heathrow forecast has 32c Sunday and 31c Monday. Guess we will have to see...

image.thumb.png.879b4772a76d2253c5f3b82840ab0580.png
 

default_card_315.jpg
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Heathrow 7 day weather forecast including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind, visibility, humidity and UV

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Don't really know what to make of this morning's GEFS 00Z temp. ensembles. Other than that, at its coldest point, the operational run is an outlier:

t850Suffolk.png    t2mSuffolk.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Telford, 160m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Cold, Thunder, Heat
  • Location: Telford, 160m asl
7 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

GEM is a classic for storm lovers with a lot coming up from France along with homegrown storms across the country, GFS goes a lot more Conservative though so this could either be a classic or a dud. 

 

gemeuw-11-108 (2).png

gemeuw-11-204 (1).png

gemeuw-11-228 (2).png

gemeuw-11-234 (1).png

The storm potential over Europe looks crazy!

 

ein553gpgw121.jpg

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