model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Hasn't happened yet!

True, but it’s well back by UKMO and ECM.

Yesterdays 06Z Ops looked a cold outlier against the ensembles but in fact was a good bet.

 

 

[Guest]

The back end of the GFS run returns us to extremely poor conditions, I wouldn’t normally post charts this far out but they are the sorts of charts we’ve been seeing semi-permanently since early May so would be of zero surprise if we end up in this sort mess. 
 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

The back end of the GFS run returns us to extremely poor conditions, I wouldn’t normally post charts this far out but they are the sorts of charts we’ve been seeing semi-permanently since early May so would be of zero surprise if we end up in this sort mess. 
 

You did say earlier about a terrible period from 28th july to August 1st so you might be correct

[mb018538]

16 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The back end of the GFS run returns us to extremely poor conditions, I wouldn’t normally post charts this far out but they are the sorts of charts we’ve been seeing semi-permanently since early May so would be of zero surprise if we end up in this sort mess. 
 

 

It may be being over aggressive in bringing back unsettled conditions. We are on an upward GWO cycle and high rising AAM phase, which has correlated to a shift in uk weather patterns. There are signs that around the turn of the month this will start to cycle down, and likely end up in the lower phases more associated with unsettled weather. Just depends how quickly this happens.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

It may be being over aggressive in bringing back unsettled conditions. We are on an upward GWO cycle and high rising AAM phase, which has correlated to a shift in uk weather patterns. There are signs that around the turn of the month this will start to cycle down, and likely end up in the lower phases more associated with unsettled weather. Just depends how quickly this happens.

Well that was a weak and short lived ‘up cycle’ i wonder if it’ll turn out to be the only decent 3 or 4 days spell of high summer? 
 

Incidentally the GFS 12z Ops run is again mega aggressive against the ensembles, although a few more are trending that way. It really is very consistent in this theme, not a single warm outlier in the past few days. 
 

[mb018538]

17 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well that was a weak and short lived ‘up cycle’ i wonder if it’ll turn out to be the only decent 3 or 4 days spell of high summer? 
 

Incidentally the GFS 12z Ops run is again mega aggressive against the ensembles, although a few more are trending that way. It really is very consistent in this theme, not a single warm outlier in the past few days. 
 

Well obviously it can’t go up forever - though it can hold in a high orbit phase and prolong the settled weather when it does arrive….though this doesn’t particularly look like happening for too long as pacific convection looks dead through august once MJO passes, and with an I/O standing wave - a low GWO regime coupled with La Niña isn’t usually great for us…

Interestingly the Met long range goes unsettled end of July before a more settled spell early august again…not sure I’m so keen. I think once it turns unsettled we’re pretty much done for.

Thursday 29 Jul -Thursday 12 Aug

An unsettled interlude is probable for the end of July with rain or showers for most areas, these locally heavy and thundery, especially in the South. Into early August, warmer and drier-than-average conditions look likely to return for much of the UK, although some unsettled weather is still possible, especially in the northwest and the southeast.

Seems a strange pattern to be unsettled In The NW and SE!

[northwestsnow]

19 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Well obviously it can’t go up forever - though it can hold in a high orbit phase and prolong the settled weather when it does arrive….though this doesn’t particularly look like happening for too long as pacific convection looks dead through august once MJO passes, and with an I/O standing wave - a low GWO regime coupled with La Niña isn’t usually great for us…

Interestingly the Met long range goes unsettled end of July before a more settled spell early august again…not sure I’m so keen. I think once it turns unsettled we’re pretty much done for.

Thursday 29 Jul -Thursday 12 Aug

An unsettled interlude is probable for the end of July with rain or showers for most areas, these locally heavy and thundery, especially in the South. Into early August, warmer and drier-than-average conditions look likely to return for much of the UK, although some unsettled weather is still possible, especially in the northwest and the southeast.

Seems a strange pattern to be unsettled In The NW and SE!

I think it is always worth bearing in mind we live in the UK ,not Spain.

End of July is a good two weeks away.

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Well obviously it can’t go up forever - though it can hold in a high orbit phase and prolong the settled weather when it does arrive….though this doesn’t particularly look like happening for too long as pacific convection looks dead through august once MJO passes, and with an I/O standing wave - a low GWO regime coupled with La Niña isn’t usually great for us…

Interestingly the Met long range goes unsettled end of July before a more settled spell early august again…not sure I’m so keen. I think once it turns unsettled we’re pretty much done for.

Thursday 29 Jul -Thursday 12 Aug

An unsettled interlude is probable for the end of July with rain or showers for most areas, these locally heavy and thundery, especially in the South. Into early August, warmer and drier-than-average conditions look likely to return for much of the UK, although some unsettled weather is still possible, especially in the northwest and the southeast.

Seems a strange pattern to be unsettled In The NW and SE!

Lol I’ll sack off my trip to Torquay now….was joking in the other thread about my trip there and the weather probably being naff. Not wasting over a grand to walk around in a coat and hide from the rain for three days…..

 

 

[sheikhy]

Hmmm ecm slower in clearing the heat which can only be a good thing!!!best from the top 3 up to 144 hours!!

[sheikhy]

And looks really good at 168 hours with high pressure increasing over the uk once again!!!!

[Captain Shortwave]

 

Well another thing to resolve, another little system close to Iceland. This seems to cause the spoiler system to clear more eastwards initially. Essentially this givens England and Wales another fine and very warm day. The trough does develop later so still a band of cloud to move South to deliver cooler air.

Edited July 14, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[northwestsnow]

EC looks great , really pleased for the Irish North and South who look the big winners ,initially at least.

the low to the SW might need watching.. 

 

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

And looks really good at 168 hours with high pressure increasing over the uk once again!!!!

And goes on well at T192, while others have commented on how this settled spell might end, it is worth considering also how it might continue?

[damianslaw]

Mid July, mid summer! High pressure overhead, widespread mid to high 20s, sunshine and dry weather. If you were to ask me for ideal synoptics this point in the summer it would be what is on offer.. now entering 'high summer'..

[Guest]

Hmmm ECM…..Looks too good to be true. Hope it’s right!!! Would be warm and thundery right through the end of next week!! 

Edited July 14, 2021 by Alderc

[mb018538]

I see the ECM has gone full pessimistic at day 9 tonight - surely that can’t deliver mid to high teens. To be fair it was doing this for the upcoming weekend a few days ago and has corrected itself to the other output now showing high 20s. Probably overplaying cloud again as it’s got almost total cover.

 

[Djdazzle]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Mid July, mid summer! High pressure overhead, widespread mid to high 20s, sunshine and dry weather. If you were to ask me for ideal synoptics this point in the summer it would be what is on offer.. now entering 'high summer'..

I suppose in high summer, a lot of us are looking for the maximum impact in terms of high temperatures. It's quite unbelievable that we haven't reached 30C by this point - that is a real shock.

[Man With Beard]

A few thoughts on tonight's run

1. Historically that shortwave for Monday/Tuesday would be expected to correct further north and east, but not sure this year, perhaps model upgrades have reduced this type of error at D5/D6, will be interesting to watch 

2. I fail to believe low 20s from the ECM at D8/D9 ... it's too slack for the North Sea to be that influential away from eastern counties.

3. Low stuck west, high persisting right ... how on earth do we not get a plume in this situation?

 

 

 

[mushymanrob]

Just released, this chart support the ECM @ 240 ... which if nothing else is interesting.

[sheikhy]

Anyone complaining about this evenings ecm is ridiculous!!!i love it from start to finish!!!!warm humid loads of sun and dry weather!!!

[Guest]

40 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

A few thoughts on tonight's run

1. Historically that shortwave for Monday/Tuesday would be expected to correct further north and east, but not sure this year, perhaps model upgrades have reduced this type of error at D5/D6, will be interesting to watch 

2. I fail to believe low 20s from the ECM at D8/D9 ... it's too slack for the North Sea to be that influential away from eastern counties.

3. Low stuck west, high persisting right ... how on earth do we not get a plume in this situation?

 

 

 

The ECM seems to advent in a lot of mid and high level cloud from the south west on D8/9 while at the same time keeping a cool/cold undercut from the North Sea meaning there’s not even any sun to warm the surface delivering those utterly naff temps. The surface north easterly gets displaced to an easterly on D10 and the temps shoot back up.

 

[Cambrian]

Less than 10mm of rain in the next 8 days for UK and Ireland, mostly not enough for a puddle, away from parts of NW Scotland (GFS and ECM) and maybe SW Ireland (GFS only).

Accumulated total precipitation (+192h) GFS 12z and ECM 12z

 

 

Some heavy rain from the southwest on day 10 itself with the GFS but most parts still waiting for “proper rain” in 10 days time according to ECM, creeping slowly into Munster and south Connacht from the southwest. 

Accumulated total precipitation (+240h) GFS 12z and ECM 12z

 

 

So both GFS / ECM now broadly agreed on a generally dry spell of good length through the middle of July, good summer weather for 8-10 days in advance of less settled weather eventually arriving from the southwest, which has been pushed back a couple of days since yesterday to the 24th / 25th. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it pushed back further. 

[stodge]

Evening all

An increasingly pleasant day here in lowland East London after a dull start.

With 4-6 days of fine weather now certain, it would be remiss of me not to look for a potential breakdown (it's what we all do on here, summer or winter, isn't it?).

Tonight's T+216 view takes us to Friday July 23rd:

12Z 850s tonight from ECM, JMA, GEM, GFS OP, GFS Control:

Last night, I mentioned three scenarios in the T+216 output - looking at the 850s in isolation, it looks like the "plume" will get very close to southern and south-eastern Britain but it's not going to quite make it. GFS OP and GEM look very similar at T+216 in terms of bringing the core of heat closest (the 500s look more different).  The trough to the south-west doesn't deepen in situ as you'd want to see if you want the hot air to be advected from the south - instead, it dissipates or is drawn into a broad European trough cutting off the hot air flow.

ECM, as it did last night, treads a half way house and, as it did last evening, holds more substantial heights to the north east and by T+240 north.

JMA and GFS Control keep any heat well to the south and east though the 500s are again very different.

I'm struggling to see prolonged and noteworthy heat in the immediate future - let's be blunt, 30c is not the big ticket it was twenty years ago. are we going to see 35c in the coming days? I can't see it in truth.

Don't get me wrong - it will be very warm and very pleasant summer conditions for the majority of the British Isles and, especially for the south, a welcome change from weeks of poor weather but it's not exceptional (nearly 2 inches of rain in an hour on a Monday afternoon is exceptional).  

[Uncertainty]

The breakdown being put back is not surprising given the increased signals for the MJO to propagate into the Pacific into week 2. 
 

Here’s the vp200 charts from the good Dr Ventrice:

Ec 240 mean
 

GEFS

Pretty good agreement on a stalling trough to the SW and heights holding firm just to our NE.

If it does stray a bit closer then it could kick off. CAPE charts here from the GEM

Jet stream profile at same timeframe, could be some more organised action there. We haven’t seen any high end thunderstorms this year - heavy thundery rain (Hammersmith et al) notwithstanding. Speculative at this range of course.

The odd op run has blasted the Atlantic through the block at day 8 ish but it’s not supported by the tropical signals and past experience of these set ups by many of us on here would suggest resilience to be the name of the game.

NOAA on board with the pattern outlined above. The proximity of the cut off low is the  yet to be determined factor.

Later in the period AR or +NAO types prevailing perhaps.

 Still,  building evidence we could eek 11-13 days out of this very settled spell. Perhaps a cold front flirting down across N areas on Monday as the high orientates itself towards  its N Sea landing point.

 

 

Edited July 14, 2021 by Uncertainy

[Iceman2606]

UKV 15z looking hot for the weekend this evening with mid to high 20's quite widely & maybe low 30's on Sunday.