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Model output discussion 11th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
12 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

id have thought the Northwest is likely to miss out on the hottest/thundriest conditions..

As per June 20 the north west can do very well if the flow ahead is from the south east rather than south west.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
33 minutes ago, milomolly123 said:

if we get a south westerly wind then. then north west will be more exposed to to the hotter temps i no this because I've been the north west all my life and where i am we have had 33c when the met office and BBC say only 25c so i feel like ur wrong a little bit like 50/50 your  right a bit so am i. 

Erm, we dont do text speak here...
No, if you get a southwesterly the heat in the south will not reach you. the current charts suggest that the northwest will be nearer to the jet stream . You need a southeasterly.

27 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

As per June 20 the north west can do very well if the flow ahead is from the south east rather than south west.

Absolutely, i made my comment though on the back of the current output which doesnt suggest a southeasterly until t300 hours if at all for the northwest.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

image.thumb.png.966d5441d26021487169a18c55e4248b.png

Seems we might see just about enough eastward shift of the WWBs in the tropical Pacific to keep high pressure in warm/hot locations relative to the UK for a fair few days beyond this weekend.

This, related to an MJO signal slowly propagating east from the eastern Indian Ocean. Still questions over how far it will get and with what amplitude, so caution advised with respect to longevity of 'high summer' weather... but I'm starting to feel hopeful that we might make it to late July at least.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Best stick go the reliable 5 days.. speculating on temps 11 days ahead always futile.. in the meantime, high pressure on the scene timed perfect for the start if 'high summer' and many school holidays starting. 

If I was to organise the weather how I like it, I would produce the synoptics coming up this week right now! Couldn't be any better. Nothing especially hot, mid 20s and sunshine light winds and dry weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I think we have a nation in mourning on here today...come on folks it will soon be the World Cup!! Redemption time..

Cracking UKMO this evening...Time to unwind and kick back me thinks..just like the dog..

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I think we have a nation in mourning on here today...come on folks it will soon be the World Cup!! Redemption time..

Cracking UKMO this evening...Time to unwind and kick back me thinks..just like the dog..

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The ukmo is an absolute heat fest start to finish!!gfs looks a barnstormer as well up to 138 hours so far!!ecm to finish this off this evening.....☀️?!!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, blow me down with a feather! What better place for an HP?:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
7 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I think we have a nation in mourning on here today...come on folks it will soon be the World Cup!! Redemption time..

Cracking UKMO this evening...Time to unwind and kick back me thinks..just like the dog..

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Be wary in the long run. Note at day 6 the UKMO is sending the jet energy south much more akin to the GEM. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Be wary in the long run. Note at day 6 the UKMO is sending the jet energy south much more akin to the GEM. 

Just clocked the extended met update.. Thundery showers a risk further afield with plenty of settled and very warm at times conditions for many..So it looks perhaps High Pressure close by for some period..Worth mentioning that risk of cooler and cloudier conditions towards Eastern coastal areas also..they won't be to happy about that if it remains stubborn to clear. But I would have thought Central and Western areas fairing very well indeed.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GFS 12Z at T+273:  h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png   ⚡

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.d9c3c4bec52729943153b14a669d5601.png

image.thumb.png.120014235bf0285203b27e25c0e66a06.png

 

Shame it looks like being a bit of a waste of these crazy upper air temps - 17/18c on Sunday afternoon, but we may not exceed 30c. Not enough of a southerly component, and the easterly breeze will hold temps back somewhat.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
41 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.d9c3c4bec52729943153b14a669d5601.png

image.thumb.png.120014235bf0285203b27e25c0e66a06.png

 

Shame it looks like being a bit of a waste of these crazy upper air temps - 17/18c on Sunday afternoon, but we may not exceed 30c. Not enough of a southerly component, and the easterly breeze will hold temps back somewhat.

In this type of set-up look for somewhere in the SW or one of the large cities in the NW to get peak daytime temps.

Increasingly moving into a set-up that looks warm for sure, probably very warm for most, but is quite considerably lower than you'd expect with the 850hpa/thickness profile being touted.

Basically, like a less extreme late June 2019 situation.

Still, I think it will feel very summery providing not too much cloud comes into play, and if we get a more southerly veer on the winds we may well warm up very rapidly into the low 32-34c range. If not then broadly 28-30c seems more likely.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

A very tough forecast coming up from the weekend onwards given the position of the high. Where the specific shape could drastically affect conditions, especially in the east. No southerlies yet but over the weekend high pressure appear to want to stretch from Northern Ireland eastwards.

image.thumb.png.8b8235e2dc6cbf60326fdd28bda8f111.png   

So probably the south east/East Anglia at risk of more cloud and lower temperatures. Probably high twenties elsewhere with light and variable winds.

Sunday from the ECM probably has everywhere sunny given the position of the centre.

image.thumb.png.ed5117162b6f2adaa3cda13c00ae6e29.png

I wouldn’t be surprised to see somewhere like the West Midlands seeing 30c from this. The UKMO is a little further north on both days but we are talking 50 miles here. However the Atlantic pattern appears quite different. It is quite something to see the jet stream that far north on a flat trajectory.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
5 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

A very tough forecast coming up from the weekend onwards given the position of the high. Where the specific shape could drastically affect conditions, especially in the east. No southerlies yet but over the weekend high pressure appear to want to stretch from Northern Ireland eastwards.

image.thumb.png.8b8235e2dc6cbf60326fdd28bda8f111.png   

So probably the south east/East Anglia at risk of more cloud and lower temperatures. Probably high twenties elsewhere with light and variable winds.

Sunday from the ECM probably has everywhere sunny given the position of the centre.

image.thumb.png.ed5117162b6f2adaa3cda13c00ae6e29.png

I wouldn’t be surprised to see somewhere like the West Midlands seeing 30c from this. The UKMO is a little further north on both days but we are talking 50 miles here. However the Atlantic pattern appears quite different. It is quite something to see the jet stream that far north on a flat trajectory.

I quite fancy west Wales to do very well in this setup too. Somewhere like Aberystwyth will probably do very well in such a setup.

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That’s a very warm ECM, with the slack easterly flow getting cut off early next week could see temps into the 30s i fancy.

60FF3499-95C3-4F2E-9D7A-7D07BDB96989.thumb.png.9cbedcd077bc9a817bb70c1eb8114cca.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And, over here in sunny Suffolk, we'll (I hope!) be blessed with temps a good deal lower that 34C!

t850Suffolk.png    t2mSuffolk.png

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
11 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I quite fancy west Wales to do very well in this setup too. Somewhere like Aberystwyth will probably do very well in such a setup.

I would punt at somewhere like Gloucester perhaps. However if the ECM is right then that might be academic given the charts for the start of next week. The heat reaching further and further east. The first ECM run that toys with a pretty significant heatwave if it comes off. Three straight days with the 16c isotherm across the south with slack east to south east winds. Low thirties easily.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Starting to see the split jet conundrum show its hand for next week. Nearly always happens once a high has been in place for 4-5 days in the summer months.

Story goes: A trough digs down to our west in the Atlantic. The polar jet splits with an arm heading approx. north-northeast and another approx. southeast. Then either:

  • The northern arm becomes the alpha and low pressure erodes the fine spell from the west/northwest (kind of like the GEM 12z, though it's a bit dodgy due to a slew of small disturbances cropping up in the North Atlantic - typical GEM spin-up everything approach!) or, at the progressive end, yesterday's ECM 12z. We're then left looking to see if we get a reload of high pressure from the Azores once that low lifts out.

    OR
     
  • The southern arm becomes the alpha and low pressure slides southeast to some extent. This is where things get complicated because the Atlantic trough is inherently less inclined to move wholesale in a southeast direction (compared to east or northeast). We often see the trough disrupt as a result, with a secondary low splitting from the main one that says west or southwest of the UK. Resulting weather can be anything from a serious washout (a bit like today in the south) if that low is too large or far north, to a 'heat pump' like we saw in the 2nd week of August last year if the circulation of the main low barely disrupts while sitting to our west/southwest. The ECM 12z of today is a weak example of that. Literally - the Atlantic trough is exceptionally weak!

With all this in mind, best to cut the models some slack when it comes to where things head by the middle of next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Very happy with the 12z ECM:

animszn2.gif

I think what we are trending towards is a high pressure dominated scenario, but with low pressure incursions, as per the T240 there.  So settled, mainly, hot yes, but some thundery breakdowns too.   Which I’m all for, it’s nearly half of summer gone and no sun, no thunder, and very little rain here either, just constant cloud.  It’s all changing this week.  Fantastic!  ⚡

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Yes the ECM is truly spectacular- one of the hottest runs for a long time!

The 15C isotherm is over the UK for several days and would probably mean widespread temps of 30C+ 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Seriously hot looking charts from the ECM 12z operational...Shirley this will become a hot topic soon? ☀️.. it just did!  

4E9A11A1-C8C4-4FBC-90B2-4AC49A96FB47.thumb.png.a7ed414c76b1a91fc185f44f2ab7bfbb.pngED96839A-020C-47DF-8675-D428160D9963.thumb.png.bcb8d124fbb540d945b73d07b0114d39.pngF37FEF6E-B6E3-4F96-B128-A773529F788D.thumb.png.bae5a552bd7c9daf99aecc751697a65b.png9271133E-4267-4B51-8C97-B3FC2BAAC542.thumb.png.6d6e0c1182b20908150d3db1d9cca511.pngA2BBCDF6-39EA-4422-B1C5-252D4A3C970C.thumb.png.4e32af6c827b2c527f6dc9840c92a4d7.pngAAFF285D-FAB9-4F95-A7C8-A23E2DDA4924.thumb.jpeg.b26dbb07525955a286d7574299957a4a.jpeg4E80F33C-E8AD-48E7-8012-F4AB444E28F6.thumb.jpeg.dd30d503ce7715ed27e0f53feb294848.jpeg

Edited by Jon Snow
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