model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Well done England!!  You did your country proud, making the finals and making history. People will always say "football didn't come home" but in my heart they truly did bring football home. I've never witnessed such unity before in a country that is often so divided. Proud of Southgate and his lads.  

Meanwhile back to models, Summer is coming home, and latest GFS offers some big heat in around 2 weeks time just in time for start of Summer holidays. 

[Scorcher]

Still feel sick to my stomach about the football...but at least we have one of the best runs of the whole summer to bring some cheer.

A truly sensational GFS 18Z. This is not going to be a 3 day affair guys...

[Frosty.]

I’m liking the Ukmo 0h...and I think most of you will too!

 
 

even though footballs not coming home..high pressure is!!!  

 

Edited July 12, 2021 by Jon Snow

[mb018538]

Differences in position of the high this morning giving some very different temperature forecasts! Look at the GFS vs GEM for Thursday for example:



The GFS run is actually very warm/hot right the way through, with temps up in the high 20s pretty much every day somewhere. Found a couple of little patches of 30c on Monday in the Midlands/London:



GEM has 30c as soon as Sunday:



Might be good news for some! No sign of any 32c+ ridiculously hot days, but high twenties or 30c is more than hot enough! We've had enough 37/38c days in the last few summers anyway 

Edited July 12, 2021 by mb018538

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 0z mean, very summery conditions are on the way, nationwide!...I suspect the anticyclone would eventually be followed by a thundery breakdown..   ⛈ ? which is often the case in a British summer but longer term, perhaps to the end of July, the south could continue to be predominantly summery? ...anyway, there’s some great weather on the way..for all of us!!!.  

 

[Methuselah]

HP has landed, by T+120:       

Still good at T+240:                  

Not bad at T+360:                    

So, it's all tying in nicely with Those Who Cannot Be Named's monthly.

[mb018538]

ECM also looking very warm/hot on Sunday - with 28c possible in a few places. Temps widely in the low to mid twenties though.

[Faronstream]

GFS 0Z shows the heat spell is very short lived and the atlantic wakes up in long range, look at all this bottled up cold around northern europe ready to give us the coldest august in decades.

[mb018538]

I see the ECM has gone back to deciding that there will be loads of cloud coming in off the North Sea early next week, so despite 850s being very healthy we end up  with fairly low temperatures. Surely it's overdoing the amount of cloud and how long it'll take to burn back? SSTs are 15c now:

[sheikhy]

Ecm looks very hot indeed lol!!!!ukmo best in terms of placement of the high between 96 and 144 hours!!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

21 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I see the ECM has gone back to deciding that there will be loads of cloud coming in off the North Sea early next week, so despite 850s being very healthy we end up  with fairly low temperatures. Surely it's overdoing the amount of cloud and how long it'll take to burn back? SSTs are 15c now:

Not great here, but settle for dry, this location would be cold and grey the whole morning, maybe until 4pm

[Scorcher]

43 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

GFS 0Z shows the heat spell is very short lived and the atlantic wakes up in long range, look at all this bottled up cold around northern europe ready to give us the coldest august in decades.

I take it you haven't seen the previous runs? I'm expecting this run to be on the colder side of the ensembles.

[Alexis]

12 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Manchester Airport has already reached 25C, as has Rostherne near the airport.

Ah, thought we'd only reached 24. Thanks.

[Scorcher]

33 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Ah, thought we'd only reached 24. Thanks.

Yes 25.5C at Rostherne on June 2nd. That said we are well overdue another 25C day- I certainly agree on that.

[chapmanslade]

2 hours ago, Faronstream said:

GFS 0Z shows the heat spell is very short lived and the atlantic wakes up in long range, look at all this bottled up cold around northern europe ready to give us the coldest august in decades.

There are so many reasons this single sentence is inaccurate. 

 

[mb018538]

16 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

There are so many reasons this single sentence is inaccurate. 

 

So short lived that the entire 15 day GFS 00z run is above the long term mean. Completely inaccurate as you say.

This guy is a bit of a troll anyway and once felt the need to PM me a load of abuse for literally nothing, so beware.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 hours ago, Faronstream said:

GFS 0Z shows the heat spell is very short lived and the atlantic wakes up in long range, look at all this bottled up cold around northern europe ready to give us the coldest august in decades.

Output looks very promising this morning..Are your thoughts centred on how developments may occur through the Scandinavian area or further afield?

I've noticed you've not brought up the glorious conditions and Heat that a few parts are getting lately...Finland for instance already close to 30C!

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

What better way to erase the disappointment of last night folks...yes...High Pressure will chase those Low thoughts away! The 6z looks...shall we say to coin a phrase....nae bad at all.

[mb018538]

Bit pointless me posting these from the 6z op run, but just for fun. Back to back days at 32c at day 11/12:

 

Edited July 12, 2021 by mb018538

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

30c days are coming!!  GFS is showing high 20s, low 30s from this weekend right out to the 28th.  Interesting that current July CET is already boosted to 17c with already a warm start to the month,, so If these charts are right we could end up well above 19c for July. 

[summer blizzard]

Certainly a much hotter outlook in the ten day timeframe with 30C likely to be broken. 

Euro and GEM suggest that pressure will fall and so we get a thundery plume, GFS maintains much stronger pressure.

 

Moral is that there will be an upper trough somewhere near Biscay, how connected that is to the primary jet stream is another question. Would suggest as the middle ground that the Euro is most likely as things stand.
 

[milomolly123]

i don't think that's true just to confirm will this heat be enough to trigger so violent thunderstorms in north west England  i feel like all the right conditions are coming out to play here are the key things i think.

1 we will have very unstable air if we get 30c and if there's high humidity it wont take much to turn the storms nasty.

2 if the high stays long enough then we will start to get protracted heat that will make it feel like 32-34c.

3 its all looking good i feel that we have at least got 14-18 days of very warm/hot conditions.

    

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Bit pointless me posting these from the 6z op run, but just for fun. Back to back days at 32c at day 11/12:

 

I dont think its pointless, in a lengthy spell of high pressure domination that is expected to arrive later this week it often the case that we get a deep draw hot Southerly draft, courtesy of a Biscay low. This evolution might not happen exactly as these charts suggest, but such a plume is certainly a possibility.

[mushymanrob]

30 minutes ago, milomolly123 said:

i don't think that's true just to confirm will this heat be enough to trigger so violent thunderstorms in north west England  i feel like all the right conditions are coming out to play here are the key things i think.

1 we will have very unstable air if we get 30c and if there's high humidity it wont take much to turn the storms nasty.

2 if the high stays long enough then we will start to get protracted heat that will make it feel like 32-34c.

3 its all looking good i feel that we have at least got 14-18 days of very warm/hot conditions.

    

id have thought the Northwest is likely to miss out on the hottest/thundriest conditions..

[milomolly123]

2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

id have thought the Northwest is likely to miss out on the hottest/thundriest conditions..

if we get a south westerly wind then. then north west will be more exposed to to the hotter temps i no this because I've been the north west all my life and where i am we have had 33c when the met office and BBC say only 25c so i feel like ur wrong a little bit like 50/50 your  right a bit so am i.