model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 0z mean indicates plenty of settled summery weather during the second half of July...July has been a bit meh so far but that’s all about to change! ? 

 

[northwestsnow]

EC setting up a warm Easterly at day 7..

Scandy high incoming...

Yes I'd still like to see this chart in Nov Dec Jan ...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

EC setting up a warm Easterly at day 7..

Scandy high incoming...

Yes I'd still like to see this chart in Nov Dec Jan ...

Absolutely no chance! the huge PV over Greenie area will be there,

[bluearmy]

Steady as she goes 

note the drop in slp beyond the initial surface high up to 1025/1030mbs …. As we go through first half week 2, the upper ridge looks strong but slp is slowly dropping away across n Europe  …….  Gfs takes this further bringing the thundery euro upper trough north into play ….one to watch ….

[mb018538]

 

Some very odd temperature predictions on the ECM. Not sure that chart would be that cold down the east….GFS and GEM are much better.

[Guest]

Nothing to complain about this morning, a clean sweep and looking good until at least 23rd. GFS keeps its warm right though the end of the month. 
 

GEM Ensembles probably the most impressive this morning 

[Cambrian]

GEM gets London to 31 degrees on the 19th.

[Frosty.]

Absolutely stunning ECM 0z ensemble mean, Shirley worth a boom?..or even BOOM BOOM!!

 

 

[Methuselah]

Today's GFS 00Z ensembles do look rather spiffing, I think; an easterly is often better (as in less-hot and less-humid) over here than a southerly:

    

From past experience, you guys further inland can add 3C or so to those 2m temps.

Edited July 11, 2021 by Ed Stone

[sheikhy]

Banging banging charts this morning from start to finish!!ecm very warm and hot all the way!!gfs looks smashing as well!!enjoy the heat my heat loving minions!!?!!

[kold weather]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Today's GFS 00Z ensembles do look rather spiffing, I think; an easterly is often better (as in less-hot and less-humid) over here than a southerly:

    

From past experience, you guys further inland can add 3C or so to those 2m temps.

I think the only risk from an easterly (especially ENE/NE) is you start to get alot of low cloud, especially for the east.

Indeed the ECM actually looks surprisingly cool for large parts of the country next weekend for that exact reason, maxes only reaching 18-19c for the east for example due to cool easterly undercut. Does warm up once the surface flow shifts back towards more of a E/ESE flow though.

Still looking good for western areas to be getting 24-27c type weather, perhaps higher if we can draw a flow like the GEM shows (it often is more accurate with surface flow temps in this type of set-up historically fwiw). East is probably more a throw of the dice depending on the exact airflow direction, as long as it doesn't go too much NE it should be fine.

@mb018538 you'd be amazed how much an undercut can snuff out high temps, 2 years ago in June 2019 we had 850hpa temps at 22-25C and until the winds shifted ESE we had maxes of about 20-23c! Technically had we had that undercut the thickness/uppers supported 42c!!!

EDIT - if we can get this HP in place then IMO the pattern may reload a couple of times over a 2-3 week period, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a proper southerly push at some point in the next couple of weeks either.

Edited July 11, 2021 by kold weather

[Frosty.]

I’m so much excited..I’ve just seen the Ukmo 0h...nuff said!!!  .. ? ? 

shirley..blue sky thinking helps?! ....   

 

Edited July 11, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Timmytour]

Right....I've seen enough!  Definitely booking the week of 19th to the 23rd off and spending it in my garden!

St Swithin is coming to the rescue of the British Summer!

[mb018538]

39 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think the only risk from an easterly (especially ENE/NE) is you start to get alot of low cloud, especially for the east.

Indeed the ECM actually looks surprisingly cool for large parts of the country next weekend for that exact reason, maxes only reaching 18-19c for the east for example due to cool easterly undercut. Does warm up once the surface flow shifts back towards more of a E/ESE flow though.

Still looking good for western areas to be getting 24-27c type weather, perhaps higher if we can draw a flow like the GEM shows (it often is more accurate with surface flow temps in this type of set-up historically fwiw). East is probably more a throw of the dice depending on the exact airflow direction, as long as it doesn't go too much NE it should be fine.

@mb018538 you'd be amazed how much an undercut can snuff out high temps, 2 years ago in June 2019 we had 850hpa temps at 22-25C and until the winds shifted ESE we had maxes of about 20-23c! Technically had we had that undercut the thickness/uppers supported 42c!!!

EDIT - if we can get this HP in place then IMO the pattern may reload a couple of times over a 2-3 week period, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a proper southerly push at some point in the next couple of weeks either.

I remember it well - no denying a feed straight off the sea can be a temperature killer, it just seemed a bit odd with the high parked more or less over the UK, and with the other models nowhere near as severe. Bit of a now casting job though, it’s still a week away and will change a fair bit. West looks best for the first period of the high dominating though for sure.

[Uncertainty]

Yowza! That’s a big signal for Scandi blocking  in the August - October period. Surely an outlier given the developing Nina / EQBO?

Nope. ECM, Meteofrance, Cansips and DWD seasonals are all showing a high either over, or slightly east/west of the U.K. 

What are they seeing? You would have thought with the projected IO standing wave and suppressed pacific convection in a re-emerging Nina background in a maturing EQBO would lead to a U.K. trough but that is not what’s being shown. I’ll go into this in more detail when the Copernicus set comes out but a significant and unexpected signal is emerging and it’ll be fascinating to see if the models have seen a true signal.

 

[Frosty.]

I’ve seen enough too.. ..Shirley there is enough evidence from the Gfs 6z op that summer is coming..and then coming again? ...I rest my case!  

 

Edited July 11, 2021 by Jon Snow

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Yowza! That’s a big signal for Scandi blocking  in the August - October period. Surely an outlier given the developing Nina / EQBO?

Nope. ECM, Meteofrance, Cansips and DWD seasonals are all showing a high either over, or slightly east/west of the U.K. 

What are they seeing? You would have thought with the projected IO standing wave and suppressed pacific convection in a re-emerging Nina background in a maturing EQBO would lead to a U.K. trough but that is not what’s being shown. I’ll go into this in more detail when the Copernicus set comes out but a significant and unexpected signal is emerging and it’ll be fascinating to see if the models have seen a true signal.

 

Sept has low slp anom on ec seasonal ……and oct/nov has the high anom centred west of the U.K. ….

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, kold weather said:

I think the only risk from an easterly (especially ENE/NE) is you start to get alot of low cloud, especially for the east.

Indeed the ECM actually looks surprisingly cool for large parts of the country next weekend for that exact reason, maxes only reaching 18-19c for the east for example due to cool easterly undercut. Does warm up once the surface flow shifts back towards more of a E/ESE flow though.

Still looking good for western areas to be getting 24-27c type weather, perhaps higher if we can draw a flow like the GEM shows (it often is more accurate with surface flow temps in this type of set-up historically fwiw). East is probably more a throw of the dice depending on the exact airflow direction, as long as it doesn't go too much NE it should be fine.

@mb018538 you'd be amazed how much an undercut can snuff out high temps, 2 years ago in June 2019 we had 850hpa temps at 22-25C and until the winds shifted ESE we had maxes of about 20-23c! Technically had we had that undercut the thickness/uppers supported 42c!!!

EDIT - if we can get this HP in place then IMO the pattern may reload a couple of times over a 2-3 week period, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a proper southerly push at some point in the next couple of weeks either.

True. But, on that occasion, the 'undercut' had already traversed about 4,000 miles of ocean (from Portugal via Iceland, before finally running down the entire length of the North Sea) before finally landing on East Anglia. I may, of course, be completely wrong here, but I don't envision anything like that degree of modification, this time round?

Edited July 11, 2021 by Ed Stone

[kold weather]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

True. But, on that occasion, the 'undercut' had already traversed about 4,000 miles of ocean (from Portugal via Iceland, and then running down the entire length of the North Sea) before finally landing on East Anglia. I may, of course, be completely wrong here, but I don't envision anything like that degree of modification, this time round?

I don't either expect it to be like that, but then again we are starting from a base line of 10-15c cooler in terms of the entire mid portion of the atmosphere, so the end results may well end up being roughly similar should we pull in that type of undercut anyways.

Still, no point in getting to hung up on that, the exact orientation of any high pressure is too far out yet to be overly happy or concerned about, the main thing is we are going to get a HP over our shores at long last and IMO looks prime for a possible repeating pattern with perhaps a spell of showery weather for a couple of days inbetween if we get unlucky.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Nay complaints from me about the 6Z mean...its spiffing...I would say an improving picture beyond tomorrow! So it's all good in the hood currently.

I will leave you good folks to dust yourselves down for the big match...dont get to drunk...come onnnnnmnnn

Edited July 11, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Uncertainty]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Sept has low slp anom on ec seasonal ……and oct/nov has the high anom centred west of the U.K. ….

Can’t see the monthly breakdowns BA. Though looking at the other tri monthlies and subtracting... August seems to have the most robust U.K./Scandi high signal? It seems to move west with time on EC / Glosea...

Earliest peak into winter is interesting, early early days...

 

[Frosty.]

I’m so much excited about this evening I can hardly breathe!...anyhoo..there are some great signs for sure..not just mid July..but late July to! ....ps..footballs coming home..it’s coming home. It’s coming home, it’s coming, footballs coming home...three lions on the shirt!...etc...etc.. ️ ....back of the net..for sure, the 6z ensembles has some potential...summery weather is coming, woteva the 6z shows..  

Edited July 11, 2021 by Jon Snow

[summer blizzard]

Pressure builds in around 4 days albeit models do suggest pressure will gradually fall in the 8-10 day period. Possible thundery interest.

[Frosty.]

Omg..I just love Canada,...I wish I was Canadian..calm down frosty...shhhh..that’s better..phew..anyhoo I like these GEM charts! Relax ..breathe..zen..England win..yeah!  

 

 

[Methuselah]

Lovely chart for T+99. But, being in the East, I'm on cack alert!