Hurricane Elsa

[Jo Farrow]

Hurricane conditions for Barbados now 

"ELSA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS." NHC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * The southern coast of Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * Entire coast of Haiti

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic

Edited July 2, 2021 by Jo Farrow
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[Jo Farrow]

FRom Barbados Meteorological Services https://www.barbadosweather.org/ 

Hurricane Elsa has passed to the south of the island of Barbados now

[kold weather]

Interesting system, most of the models have been very poor with intensity, though the GFS suite is probably the most realistic.

Very high pressure as well for such a strong system, partly induced by the rapid forward speed which is having the effect of spending up winds on the northern side, and partly due to being in a fairly high pressure setting.

Not seeing much to stop it getting towards the 90-100kt range before it possibly threatens Hispaniola/Cuba.

Typically in such systems the models end up adjusting south and west during this phase, but this time with fairly rapid forward speed long term wobbles may well play a large role in whether it hits or misses the highest mountains of Hispaniola/Cuba.

Also worryingly similar to Dennis/Emily in 05...

[karyo]

She is moving so fast, quite unusual for a hurricane. Usually strengthening leads to a slow down in forward speed but it doesn't seem to happen with Elsa.

[Skullzrulerz]

17 minutes ago, karyo said:

She is moving so fast, quite unusual for a hurricane. Usually strengthening leads to a slow down in forward speed but it doesn't seem to happen with Elsa.

Do we have any forecasts/models about the strength at the moment?

[karyo]

16 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Do we have any forecasts/models about the strength at the moment?

Only the GFS (up to the 0z) has been keen to make Elsa a hurricane. The other models are not keen on making much of this storm. 

Ironically, the 12z GFS has considerably toned down the strength of Elsa although it keeps the same track as before.

[karyo]

Elsa has weakened to a tropical storm as she passes just to the south of Haiti. The northwesterly direction is expected to take her over Cuba in the next couple of days.

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

Next few days

..

[matty40s]

 

[Jo Farrow]

ReliefWeb report - Haiti - "Preliminary reports indicate destruction of agricultural land and many roofs of houses and other public buildings, downed trees and communication powerlines. the damage caused by the storm, apart from the impact on some banana and maize plantations, was mainly limited to falling trees and blown-off roofs".

Evacuations on Cuba with heavy rain, flooding and risk of storm surge as Elsa leaves the western part of the island.

The remaining Champlain Towers demolition was moved along, of the remaining building due to incoming ELsa and the expected heavy rain. 

ECM model takes a more distinct low towards tip of Greenland at the weekend where as GFS squanders it off New England.

 

[matty40s]

 

[Jo Farrow]

As Elsa heads to Florida's Gulf coast 

Elsa eyes up Florida and the Eastern Seaboard

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Tropical Storm Elsa is heading to the west coast of Florida after moving across Cuba with heavy rains. Storm surge, flooding and wind warnings are in place midweek.

 

[karyo]

The NHC is now expecting Elsa to regain hurricane strength before making landfall in Florida.

[matty40s]