Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

July 2021 CET & EWP forecast contests


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield down to 18.8C +2.4C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 54.8mm 85.8% of the monthly average.

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
    21 hours ago, Timmytour said:

    I would imagine it's not only a high spot of the month for Sheffield, but right up there in the highest spots ever seen?

    Fifth warmest on record at the present time. The unforecast cool down from Friday stopped it challenging from getting any higher. The forecast for the next five days indicate it's likely not to move much from this value as we should lose the persistent cloud cover. So some hot days mixed with average days to come which should basically cancel each other out.

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    11 hours ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Wait, hotter than July 2013? That heatwave nearly lasted 3 weeks!

    I think the average daily Min CET in 2013 was less than 13C.   I'm guessing we've hardly had a min that low this month!

    The nights have been the biggest driver of such a relatively  high mean CET

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Cardiff
    1 hour ago, Timmytour said:

    I think the average daily Min CET in 2013 was less than 13C.   I'm guessing we've hardly had a min that low this month!

    The nights have been the biggest driver of such a relatively  high mean CET

    Can't remember the last cool night here.¬† Average minimums at my location have been 14.2¬įC.

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    15 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

    From the provisional CET data this hot spell has become the 11th time that seven or more consecutive days exceeded a mean of 20.0. I will update the details when the numbers are finalized. 

    I think whats notable about this heatwave just gone is how widespread the 28-32c maxes ended up being, literally the whole country had that kinda range maxes.

    In some previous recent heatwaves its been more focused on the South and much more extreme down here but cooler than the recent heatwave for the North.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    3 hours ago, Timmytour said:

    I think the average daily Min CET in 2013 was less than 13C.   I'm guessing we've hardly had a min that low this month!

    The nights have been the biggest driver of such a relatively  high mean CET

    Not here- it's the maxima that have been more notable and I think that's the case across many areas of the country.

    Very impressive consistency by day here with barely any days not reaching 20C.

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    18.6c to the 24th

    2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 18.7c on the 23rd
    Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

    • Thanks 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Cardiff
    1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

    Not here- it's the maxima that have been more notable and I think that's the case across many areas of the country.

    Very impressive consistency by day here with barely any days not reaching 20C.

    I agree, average high temperatures here are over 24¬įC which is around 3¬įC higher than expected.

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    EWP is currently close to 60 or 61 mm and six-day GFS adds about 20-25 mm,  so 80-86 mm is the most probable landing zone for that. 

    Top thirty annual and July scores based on 85.1 mm subject to adjustments end of month. 

     

    JULY FORECASTS _____________________ ANNUAL SCORING (provisional scores for July)

    rank _ fcst _ forecaster ____ points ___ rank _ points _ forecaster (avg error and rank)

     1. 85.0 _ davehsug ________ 10.00 ____1. 58.45 _ snowray __________ (28.46 mm - 1st)

     2. 87.2 _ Roger J Smith _____ 9.79 ____ 2. 56.15 _ Feb91blizzard ____ (31.05 mm - 5th)

     3. 82.0 _ virtualsphere _____ 9.57 ____ 3. 53.69 _ Don _______________(30.00 mm - 2nd)

     4, 82.0 _ noname_weather _9.45 ____ 4. 51.95 _ virtualsphere _____ (32.88 mm - 8th)

     5. 82.0 _ East Lancs Rain^ __9.03 ____ 5. 51.69 _ Relativistic ________ (30.53 mm - 3rd)

     6. 89.0 _WalsallWoodSnow_ 8.95____ 6. 51.21 _ noname_weather _ (34.68 mm - 12th)

     7. 89.2 _Kirkcaldy Weather _8.73 ____ 7. 50.93 _ davehsug _________ (30.75 mm - 4th)

     8. 81.0 _ daniel* ^ __________8.43 ____ 8. 49.32 _ Midlands Ice Age _ (32.43 mm - 7th)

     9. 90.0 _ summer blizzard __8.31 ____ 9. 47.89 _ Reef ______________ (31.50 mm - 6th)**

    10.90.0 _ syed2878 _________ 8.19____10. 47.41 _ federico __________ (34.67 mm - 11th) *

    11.80.0 _ weather-history __ 7.90 ____11. 47.02 _ Bobd29 ___________(37.70 mm - 18th)

    12.80.0 _ B87 _______________7.78 ____12. 46.08 _ Roger J Smith _____(34.19 mm - 10th)

    13.80.0 _ Relativistic ^ ______7.36 ____13. 44.39 _ February1978 _____(36.63 mm - 15th)

    14.77.0 _ shillitocettwo _____7.27 ____14. 43.66 _ seaside60 _________(36.28 mm - 14th)

    15.77.0 _ Mr Maunder ______7.15 ____15. 42.13 _ Godber 1 _________ (36.65 mm - 16th)

    16.77.0 _ NeilN _____________ 7.03____16. 42.05 _ The PIT ___________ (40.28 mm - 27th)

    17.93.5 _ Midlands Ice Age _ 6.63____17. 40.22 _ Kirkcaldy Weather_ (42.83 mm - 34th)

    18.76.5 _ snowray __________ 6.43____18. 40.03 _ Leo97t ____________ (43.55 mm - 36th)

    19.75.0 _ JeffC ______________ 6.21____19. 39.96 _ Mr Maunder ______ (38.68 mm - 21st)

    20.75.0 _ DR(S)NO __________ 6.09____20. 39.21 _ DR(S)NO __________ (38.95 mm - 23rd)

    21.75.0 _ Leo97t ____________ 5.97____21. 39.02 _ Ed Stone __________ (37.93 mm - 19th)

    22.75.0 _ Don _______________5.85____ 22. 38.65 _ Jeff C ______________(37.68 mm - 17th)

    23.96.0 _ Weather26 ________5.39____ 23. 38.62 _ Blast From The Past (42.45 mm - 32nd)

    24.96.0 _ Godber1 __________ 5.27____24. 38.58 _ Jonboy ____________ (38.53 mm - 20th)

    25.73.0 _ February1978 _____ 4.98____25. 36.51 _ J10 ________________ (39.49 mm - 24th)

    26.71.0 _ seaside60 _________ 4.77____26. 36.14 _ WalsallWoodSnow _(39.86 mm - 25th)

    27.70.0 _ J10 _________________4.36____27. 36.08 _ Polar Gael _________ (33.38 mm - 9th)

    28.71.0 _ BornFromtheVoid^_4.35 ___ 28. 34.95 _ Mulzy _____________ (40.15 mm - 26th)

    29.69.0 _ Emmett Garland ___ 4.16___ 29. 34.85 _ BornFromtheVoid _(38.90 mm - 22nd)

    30.66.0 _ summer18 _________ 3.93___ 30. 34.58 _ summer blizzard __(40.73 mm - 28th)

    ____________________________________________________________

    ^ one day late (may affect ranking relative to larger errors)

    ** Reef posted after ultimate deadline saying "near normal"-- for that value (1991-2020) and a 1.20 penalty, 3.6 added points would be equivalent to 6th place and the average error would be near first place at about 28-29 mm. 

    * In addition to Reef, Federico missed July and has now entered 7/8 forecasts.

    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield still 18.8C +2.2C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 54.8mm 85.8% of average

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    18.6c to the 25th

    2.6c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 18.7c on the 23rd
    Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

    • Thanks 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    On 25/07/2021 at 12:31, kold weather said:

    I think whats notable about this heatwave just gone is how widespread the 28-32c maxes ended up being, literally the whole country had that kinda range maxes.

    In some previous recent heatwaves its been more focused on the South and much more extreme down here but cooler than the recent heatwave for the North.

    2006, 2018 brought similiar widespread heat well into Scotland. 

    A 18 plus CET looks on the cards, a marker of a very warm summer month. However, CET likely to drop rather than rise to month's end, maxima below average, though minima will hold up somewhat under the cloudy showery skies. 

    Its been a good month but not an exceptional one.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield back up to 18.9C, +2.3C above normal . Rainfall unchanged at 54.8mm 85.8% of the monthly average.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    18.6c to the 26th

    2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 18.7c on the 23rd
    Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

    • Thanks 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Cardiff
    On 25/07/2021 at 14:19, Scorcher said:

    Not here- it's the maxima that have been more notable and I think that's the case across many areas of the country.

    Very impressive consistency by day here with barely any days not reaching 20C.

    Looking like it's going to be the warmest month since July 2018.

    Edited by Earthshine
    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    1 hour ago, Earthshine said:

    Looking like it's going to be the warmest month since July 2018.

    Not much competition since one of those afterwards was below average.¬†ūüėÉ

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Weather Preferences: In summer, a decent thunderstorm, and hot weather. In winter, snow or gale
  • Location: Basingstoke

    I understand there's usually a downward correction but this month looks like finishing above the likes of the very decent July 2014 and July 1999.  No way does this month justify that level.  Apart from last week it's been fairly bland tbh.

    Surely it can't finish at a similar level to July 2013..

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    My impression is that they take the actual data at the three stations, subtract 0.2 for a small urban heat island effect, and that's your final CET. So it's not really any sort of subjective correction going on, the subjective part was their ongoing estimate day by day since those three stations don't post data quickly enough for them to utilize it in real time. Maybe they only send in their data after the end of each month, or more frequently like once a week and then what's left on the first. But I don't think there's some panel sitting around asking each other what shall we go with? It's the estimates that are subjective, not the final numbers. Just a guess though. 

    We have a contest like this on an Irish weather forum and there, we just take the actual average of five stations that are selected to be rural and within the central part of the country. So nobody has to do any adjusting, and I can tell you the average for that has crept up to near 18.0 with this heat wave, which is a good 2.5 above the normal for that statistic (the Irish "mean temperatures" (IMT as we call them in the contest) average a bit lower in the summer and a bit higher in the winter than the CET. We aren't on to 1991-2020 as a normal yet but in any case people are predicting actuals like in this contest. In an American contest that I run, we predict anomalies and the new baseline is 1991-2020 as of May (they change 'em up fast). Those normals are mostly in the range of 0.3 to 0.7 F higher than the 1981-2010 averages being used previously, but I published all the actuals and there were a few larger changes, as well as the odd negative change (not every month at all nine locations we use got warmer in 1991-2020, I think it was November in Denver and maybe March in Boston that bucked the trend). I'm the only non-professional who tries to predict the weather in Canada so there's no contest there. 

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    2 hours ago, SummerShower said:

    I understand there's usually a downward correction but this month looks like finishing above the likes of the very decent July 2014 and July 1999.  No way does this month justify that level.  Apart from last week it's been fairly bland tbh.

    Surely it can't finish at a similar level to July 2013..

    It's been better than 2014 up here- no doubt in my mind about that. If you look at Weather-History's Manchester summer index you'll see that it currently ranks above the 2 summers you mention up here.

    I can understand why people further south wouldn't agree though as it's been rather underwhelming further south.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    4 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

    Not much competition since one of those afterwards was below average.¬†ūüėÉ

    July 2019 was a very warm month at 17.5C- in some past decades it would have been the warmest summer month. It would have been comfortably the warmest month in the entire 1960s- not to be dismissed at all. 

    Last August was also very warm at 17.6C- again would have been the warmest month of the decade if it had been in the 60s.

    There have been some very warm summer months in the last 3 years.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    14 hours ago, SummerShower said:

    I understand there's usually a downward correction but this month looks like finishing above the likes of the very decent July 2014 and July 1999.  No way does this month justify that level.  Apart from last week it's been fairly bland tbh.

    Surely it can't finish at a similar level to July 2013..

    The thing is its been quite a widespread warm month, down here in the south bar last week its been very average, but for the north I'd imagine this month will be significantly above average and probably up there in terms of the all time rankings.

    This whole summer so far has been a real odd one in that we've had a NW-SE split but in favour of the NW whilst down here in the SE it has been a warmish month (even without the heatwave it was still not too bad temp wise) but again pretty wet.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    18.6c to the 27th

    2.6c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 18.7c on the 23rd
    Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

    • Thanks 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Cardiff
    17 hours ago, Scorcher said:

    July 2019 was a very warm month at 17.5C- in some past decades it would have been the warmest summer month. It would have been comfortably the warmest month in the entire 1960s- not to be dismissed at all. 

    Last August was also very warm at 17.6C- again would have been the warmest month of the decade if it had been in the 60s.

    There have been some very warm summer months in the last 3 years.

    Yep I remember July 2019 being a rather pleasant month here.  August 2020 had a fantastic first half but gradually petered away in the second half.  The CET for August 2020 was 19C+ for much of the month before a dramatic cool down later dragging the CET down.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield still at 18.9C +2.2C above normal. Rainfall up to 60.7mm 95% of the monthly average.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    On 24/07/2021 at 22:00, DAVID SNOW said:

    And at months end a 0.5C  downward correction.

    If not, then this justifies  my not bothering with Hadley CET  anymore, their daily figures are all over the place, and have been wrong now for many months.

    In fact, i don't trust their data at all!

    Only when monthly temperatures are above average it seems...

    The CET has to be adjusted at the end of the month as at that point all of the data is collected and the adjustments make it homogenous with the rest of the 300+ year series.

    Edited by Quicksilver1989
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
     Share

    √ó
    √ó
    • Create New...