July 2021 CET & EWP forecast contests

[Don]

16 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

wished id have stuck with my original 18 now.

Wish I'd added 2C to my guess!

[Methuselah]

2 hours ago, Don said:

Wish I'd added 2C to my guess!

I wish I hadn't taken 2C off mine!

[damianslaw]

CET rocketing at present. A few more very hot days CET wise could see us in the high 18s by end of the week. Question is whether it then holds or falls a little. Still we could be looking at a Top 10 warmest July.. 

[summer blizzard]

Seems unlikely, even the Euro has removed the 10C uppers by the 27th. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 18.6C +2.5C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

18.2c to the 20th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 18.2c on the 20th
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

[Scorcher]

13 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Seems unlikely, even the Euro has removed the 10C uppers by the 27th. 

Minima are going to hold it up though. Only 4 days from the 27th to make a dent in the figure and I can't see it being that cool.

[reef]

4 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Minima are going to hold it up though. Only 4 days from the 27th to make a dent in the figure and I can't see it being that cool.

If we hit a final July CET figure of 18.0C then August would only require 17.5C for this summer to make it into the top 10. Even with an August equal to the 1991-2020 average, that 18.0C for July would still give us the joint 17th warmest summer in the 363 year CET series.

Barring anything unusual in August, this is going to finish as a very warm summer.

[Frigid]

Current provisional CET feels a bit too high. This month is not even close in terms of heat to July 2013 (18.3), which had that heatwave from the 6th to 23rd. The provisional CET to the 21st July 2013 was 18.5

[Earthshine]

1 hour ago, Frigid said:

Current provisional CET feels a bit too high. This month is not even close in terms of heat to July 2013 (18.3), which had that heatwave from the 6th to 23rd. The provisional CET to the 21st July 2013 was 18.5

Minimum temperatures have been very warm all month despite mostly unremarkable maximum temperatures.

[reef]

21 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Minimum temperatures have been very warm all month despite mostly unremarkable maximum temperatures.

Its actually maximum temperatures that have the higher anomoly:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_max.html

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_min.html

+2.5C for the maxima and +2.1C for the minima.

Maximum temperatures haven't been remarkable for extremes but they have been almost consistently average or above.

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, reef said:

Its actually maximum temperatures that have the higher anomoly:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_max.html

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_min.html

+2.5C for the maxima and +2.1C for the minima.

Maximum temperatures haven't been remarkable for extremes but they have been almost consistently average or above.

Yes this is certainly true for this part of the country too, maxima have been comfortably above average (although very consistent without any really high temps until this week). Hardly any cool days to speak of so far this month.

[Scorcher]

4 hours ago, Frigid said:

Current provisional CET feels a bit too high. This month is not even close in terms of heat to July 2013 (18.3), which had that heatwave from the 6th to 23rd. The provisional CET to the 21st July 2013 was 18.5

The CET for this month is fair- there have been no cooler days at all really.

Also 2013 had a lot of clear sunny days with temps in the mid 20s with few really hot days. Nights weren't overly warm.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 18.8C +2.6C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Should hit 19C by the end of Friday.

[Summer Sun]

18.4c to the 21st

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 18.4c on the 21st
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

[summer blizzard]

Can also confirm that the first two thirds beat 2019 but not 2018 (19.2C).

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 18.9C +2.6C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Possibly the high spot of the month with only a small decline probably until the end of the month.

[Summer Sun]

18.6c to the 22nd

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 18.6c on the 22nd
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 18.9C +2.5C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 54.8mm 85.8% of the monthly average.

Should be a fall today as it's quiet cold at the moment. If the sun comes it make a big difference. Local forecast suggesting no real change after today. Interestingly we could end up with a dry month with little rain in the forecast for us..

Edited July 24, 2021 by The PIT

[Timmytour]

On 23/07/2021 at 08:15, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield up to 18.9C +2.6C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Possibly the high spot of the month with only a small decline probably until the end of the month.

I would imagine it's not only a high spot of the month for Sheffield, but right up there in the highest spots ever seen?

[Summer Sun]

18.7c to the 23rd

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 18.7c on the 23rd
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

[Timmytour]

Based on what we've had and what the models currently show,  July 16th to 31st looks set to extend its lead as the warmest quarter of July and August, based on average daily max CETs during 2000 -2020

This would make it the 9th time in 22 years so over 40% of the time. With the 1st to 15th August in second place, it kind of puts to rest the gut feeling I had about the weather getting worse when the school summer holidays started!

The strange thing to me is how the first half of July is more often the coldest then it is the hottest!  In fact it's been the coldest as many times as the second half of August, when summer is arguably on the wane, though of course the sea temps probably assist the latter. 

Following goes on a scale of Hot - Warm - Cool - Cold. to represent order only and not actual temps.....

 

For Comparison....here's the figures for 1980-2000

 

Edited July 24, 2021 by Timmytour

[Roger J Smith]

From the provisional CET data this hot spell has become the 11th time that seven or more consecutive days exceeded a mean of 20.0. I will update the details when the numbers are finalized. 

(later edit _ this was reduced to a six-day 20.0+ spell which made it the 15th such event, and the 18th where any six days out of seven consecutive break 20.0. By length and with ties broken by peak temperature (22.2) it ranks 14th of the 15.) 

Edited August 7, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[DAVID SNOW]

And at months end a 0.5C  downward correction.

If not, then this justifies  my not bothering with Hadley CET  anymore, their daily figures are all over the place, and have been wrong now for many months.

In fact, i don't trust their data at all!

[Man With Beard]

On 23/07/2021 at 12:17, Summer Sun said:

18.6c to the 22nd

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 18.6c on the 22nd
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

Wait, hotter than July 2013? That heatwave nearly lasted 3 weeks!