July 2021 CET & EWP forecast contests

Kirkcaldy Weather · June 30, 2021

17.1C and 89.2mm please

Midlands Ice Age · June 30, 2021

16.1C and 93.5mms please.

MIA

Derecho · June 30, 2021

16.7C please

Stargazer · June 30, 2021

17.1 and 59mm please.

Godber 1 · June 30, 2021

17.4c and 96mm please.

February1978 · June 30, 2021

17.2C and 73mm please

Don · June 30, 2021

16.5C and 75mm please.

Kentish Man · June 30, 2021

Looking a bit rubbish to be honest. Hope I'm wrong. 15.2C

Duncan McAlister · June 30, 2021

17.2 for me please.

Roger J Smith · June 30, 2021

Table of forecasts for July 2021

The numbers in brackets denote order of entry. If the CET guess is changed later with the EWP unchanged, then two orders of entry apply, the second value refers to the EWP and it drops to an intermediate decimal.

___ late forecasts can be submitted to end of 3rd of July, with penalties; these will be added to the table ___so far have added three.

CET __ EWP __ FORECASTER _________________________ CET __ EWP __ FORECASTER _______________

20.1 _ 50.0 __ Earthshine ( 06 ) _______________________16.8 _ 44.0 __ Bobd29 ( 03 ) _______________

18.9 _ 77.0 __ shillitocettwo ( 04 ) ____________________ 16.8 _ 65.0 __ Ed Stone ( 31 ) ______________

18.1 _ 60.2 __ Polar Gael ( 07 ) _______________________ 16.8 _ 72.0 __ average for 1991-2020 _____

17.9 _ 66.0 __ Summer18 ( 11 ) ______________________ 16.7 _ 76.5 __ snowray ( 32 ) _______________

17.8 _ 71.0 __ seaside60 ( 34 ) _______________________ 16.7 _ ------ __ Quicksilver1989 ( 46 ) _______

17.7 _ 69.0 __ Emmett Garland ( 17 ) _________________16.7 _ 67.3 __ average for 1981-2010 _______

17.6 _ 45.0 __ rwtwm ( 12 ) ___________________________16.6 _ 80.0 __ Relativistic ( L1-5 ) ____________

17.5 _ 58.0 __ Feb91Blizzard ( 42 ) ____________________16.5 _ 82.0 __ noname_weather ( 43 ) _______

17.4 _ ------ __ dancerwithwings ( 25 ) ________________ 16.5 _ 75.0 __ Don ( 50 ) ____________________

17.4 _ 96.0 __ Godber 1 ( 48 ) ________________________ 16.4 _ 75.0 __ JeffC ( 05 ) ____________________

17.3 _ 82.0 __ virtualsphere ( 09 ) ____________________ 16.4 _105.0__ I Remember Atlantic252 ( 37 )_

17.3 _ 80.0 __ B87 ( 30 ) ______________________________ 16.4 _ 85.0 __ davehsug ( 40 ) ___

17.3 _ 50.0 __ Mulzy ( 35 ) ____________________________ 16.3 _136.0__ SteveB ( 08 ) __________________

17.3 _ 52.3 __ Thundery wintry showers ( L1-4 ) ______ 16.3 _ 75.0 __ Leo97t ( 27 ) __________________

17.2 _ 73.0 __ February1978 ( 49 ) ___________________ 16.3 _ ------ __ Man Without Beard ( 33 ) ____

17.2 _ ------ __ Duncan McAlister ( 52 ) ________________ 16.2 _ 81.0 __ daniel* ( L1-2 ) _______________

17.1 _ 90.0 __ Summer Blizzard ( 20 ) _________________16.1 _ 87.2 __ Roger J Smith ( 14 ) ___________

17.1 _ ------ __ Summer Sun ( 38 ) _____________________16.1 _ 80.0 __ weather-history ( 24 ) ________

17.1 _ 89.2 __ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 44 ) _______________ 16.1 _ 93.5 __ Midlands Ice Age ( 45 ) ________

17.1 _ 59.0 __ Stargazer ( 47 ) ________________________ 16.0 _155.0__ Robbie Garrett ( 19 ) __________

17.0 _ ------ __ Typhoon John ( 10 ) ____________________16.0 _ 77.0 __ Mr Maunder ( 28 ) _____________

17.0 _ 45.0 __ The PIT ( 16 ) __________________________ 16.0 _ ------ __ damianslaw ( 39 ) _____________

17.0 _ 75.0 __ DR(S)NO ( 18 ) _________________________ 15.8 _ 61.0 __ jonboy ( 29 ) __________________

17.0 _ 70.0 __ J10 ( 41 ) _______________________________ 15.6 _ 96.0 __ Weather26 ( 13 ) ______________

17.0 _ 71.0 __ BornFromTheVoid ( L1-3 ) _____________ 15.6 _ 89.0 __ Walsall Wood Snow ( 21 ) _____

17.0 _ 30.0 __ Blast From the Past ( L2-1 ) ____________ 15.5 _120.0__ Frigid ( 02 ) ____________________

16.9 _ 56.0 __ Stationary Front ( 22 ) __________________15.5 _127.0 __ Let It Snow! ( 26 ) ______________

16.9 _ 77.0 __ NeilN ( 36 ) _____________________________ 15.2 _ ------ __ Kentish Man ( 51 ) _____________

16.9 _ 82.0 __ East Lancs Rain ( L1-1 ) _________________ 15.0 _113.0__ Thundershine ( 15 ) ___________

16.9 _ 77.0 __ consensus ___________________________ 14.9 _111.0__ Timmytour ( 01 ) ______________

________________________________________________________13.5 _ 90.0 __ syed2878 ( 23 ) ________________

52 on-time forecasts, plus five (so far) one day late, and one two days late,

58 in total, with consensus 16.9 C

==============================================

EWP forecasts in order

155_RG ... 136_Ste ... 127_LIS ... 120_frig ... 113_thun ... 111_Tim ... 105_IremA ... 96_wx26, godb ...

93.5_MIA ... 90_SB, syed ...89.2_KW ... 89_WWS ... 87.2_RJS ... 85_dave ... 82_virt, non,ELR^ ... 81_dan*^ ...

80_wx-hist, B87, Rel^ ... 77_shil, MrM, NN ... 76.5_snow ... 75_Jeff, DR(S), leo, Don ... 73_Feb78 ...

72.0_91-20 ... 71_sea, BFTV^ ... 70_J10 ... 69_EG ... 67.3_81-10 ... 66_sum18 ... 65_EdS ... 61_jon ... 60.2_PG ...

59_star ... 58_Feb 91 ... 56_SF ... 52.3_TWS^ ... 50_Earth, Mul ... 45_rwtwm, PIT ... 44_bob ... 30_BFTP^^

___ 44 on time forecasts, plus five (so far) one day late ^ and one shown two days late ^^

___ ___ for 50 total ... consensus 77 mm

Edited July 2, 2021 by Roger J Smith

East Lancs Rain · July 1, 2021

Slightly late entry here.

I’m expecting a mixed month, slightly warmer and wetter than average.

16.9°C and 82 mm please.

Daniel* · July 1, 2021

Oops 16.2c and 81mm thanks

BornFromTheVoid · July 1, 2021

17.0C and 71mm, thanks.

**Thundery wintry showers** · July 1, 2021

Oops... the start of the month crept up too quickly.

In view of the possibility of it turning warmer later in the month, let's say 17.3C and 52.3mm. Probably another wet month in the south and dry in the NW.

Relativistic · July 1, 2021

16.6°C and 80mm.

Roger J Smith · July 2, 2021

July CET 1981-2010 averages, and extremes 1772-2020 with running CET extremes

date _ CET _ (cum) ____ Max, Min 1772-2020 ________ Running CET extremes 1772-2020

01 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 24.6 (2015) __ 10.4 (1773) _____ 24.6 (2015) __ 10.4 (1773)

02 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 22.8 (1976) __ 11.3 (1821) _____ 22.9 (1976) __ 11.0 (1907)

03 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 24.6 (1976) __ 10.1 (1907) _____ 23.4 (1976) __ 10.7 (1907)

04 __ 16.0 __ 15.9 ___ 24.7 (1976) __ 10.0 (1965) _____ 23.8 (1976) __ 11.2 (1907)

05 __ 16.4 __ 16.0 ___ 24.0 (1852) __ 10.7 (1920) _____ 23.8 (1976) __ 11.2 (1907)

06 __ 16.3 __ 16.1 ___ 23.3 (1976) __ 11.3 (1877) _____ 23.7 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

07 __ 16.3 __ 16.1 __ 22.6 (1923,1976) _ 11.1 (1877) ___23.5 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

08 __ 16.6 __ 16.2 __ 21.4 (1870,1976) _ 10.6 (1823) ___23.3 (1976) __ 11.5 (1907)

09 __ 16.3 __ 16.2 ___ 21.6 (1921) __ 11.0 (1856) _____ 22.8 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

10 __ 16.6 __ 16.2 ___ 22.1 (1921) __ 11.2 (1993) _____ 22.3 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

11 __ 16.7 __ 16.3 ___ 22.6 (1783) ___ 9.4 (1888) _____ 22.0 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

12 __ 16.5 __ 16.3 ___ 23.7 (1923) __ 11.0 (1840) _____ 21.9 (1976) __ 11.7 (1907)

13 __ 16.6 __ 16.3 ___ 24.5 (1808) __ 10.2 (1840) _____ 21.6 (1976) __ 11.8 (1907)

14 __ 16.8 __ 16.3 ___ 24.4 (1808) __ 11.7 (1961) _____ 21.4 (1976) __ 12.2 (1907)

15 __ 17.0 __ 16.4 ___ 23.7 (1825) __ 11.5 (1883) _____ 21.2 (1976) __ 12.4 (1879)

16 __ 16.8 __ 16.4 ___ 22.7 (2003) __ 11.5 (1823) _____ 21.0 (1976) __ 12.5 (1879)

17 __ 16.3 __ 16.4 ___ 22.3 (1834) __ 11.0 (1892) _____ 20.7 (1976) __ 12.6 (1879)

18 __ 16.5 __ 16.4 ___ 23.3 (1825) __ 10.1 (1863) _____ 20.6 (1976) __ 12.8 (1879)

19 __ 16.9 __ 16.4 ___ 24.5 (2006) __ 10.6 (1892) _____ 20.5 (1976) __ 12.9 (1879)

20 __ 17.2 __ 16.5 ___ 23.5 (2016) ___ 8.7 (1836) _____ 20.3 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879)

21 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 23.1 (1868) __ 11.3 (1902) _____ 20.0 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879)

22 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 23.2 (1868) __ 11.5 (1902) _____ 19.8 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879)

23 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 22.5 (2019) __ 10.1 (1843) _____ 19.6 (1976) __ 13.1 (1879)

24 __ 16.6 __ 16.5 ___ 23.9 (1818) __ 11.1 (1843) _____ 19.5 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

25 __ 17.0 __ 16.6 ___ 25.2 (2019) __ 10.9 (1920) _____ 19.6 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

26 __ 17.2 __ 16.6 ___ 23.2 (2006) __ 11.0 (1884) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

27 __ 17.2 __ 16.6 ___ 22.5 (2018) __ 10.6 (1867) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

28 __ 17.4 __ 16.6 ___ 23.7 (1948) __ 11.8 (1886,1891) _19.8 (2006)__13.2 (1879)

29 __ 17.7 __ 16.7 ___ 25.2 (1948) __ 11.0 (1816) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.4 (1879)

30 __ 17.4 __ 16.7 ___ 23.1 (1948) __ 10.6 (1786) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.4 (1816)

31 __ 17.2 __ 16.7 ___ 23.7 (2020) __ 10.9 (1841) _____19.7 (2006) __ 13.4 (1816)

_________________________________________________

The most recent daily minimum record was 10th July 1993, before that, 4th July 1965, since then we have broken or tied 15 daily maxima.

Note also, only three years now hold a daily running CET record high, and 1976 grabbed 2nd to 23rd. 2006 has the rest of the month.

Only four years share any part of lowest running daily mean, 1879 held on until the 29th but was nipped at the finish by 1816 ...

... 1907 does not look like much of a month to sit around outside either especially the first half of it.

_________________________________________________________________--

1991-2020 new daily and cumulative CET values

date ___ mean __ cum _________ date __ mean __ cum ________ date __ mean __ cum

01 ____ 16.4 ____ 16.4 __________ 11 ____ 16.3 ____ 16.3 ________ 21 ____ 16.6 ____ 16.5

02 ____ 16.1 ____ 16.2 __________ 12 ____ 16.2 ____ 16.3 ________ 22 ____ 17.1 ____ 16.6

03 ____ 16.3 ____ 16.3 __________ 13 ____ 16.2 ____ 16.3 ________ 23 ____ 17.5 ____ 16.6

04 ____ 16.5 ____ 16.3 __________ 14 ____ 16.5 ____ 16.3 ________ 24 ____ 17.3 ____ 16.6

05 ____ 16.5 ____ 16.4 __________ 15 ____ 16.6 ____ 16.3 ________ 25 ____ 17.5 ____ 16.7

06 ____ 16.2 ____ 16.3 __________ 16 ____ 17.0 ____ 16.4 ________ 26 ____ 17.5 ____ 16.7

07 ____ 16.2 ____ 16.3 __________ 17 ____ 16.8 ____ 16.4 ________ 27 ____ 17.4 ____ 16.7

08 ____ 16.2 ____ 16.3 __________ 18 ____ 17.0 ____ 16.4 ________ 28 ____ 17.1 ____ 16.7

09 ____ 16.4 ____ 16.3 __________ 19 ____ 17.5 ____ 16.5 ________ 29 ____ 17.4 ____ 16.8

10 ____ 16.5 ____ 16.3 __________ 20 ____ 17.2 ____ 16.5 ________ 30 ____ 17.2 ____ 16.8 ___ 31 ___ 17.4 ___ 16.8

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

July has only warmed slightly in these new normals from the 1981-2010 version and in that case the maximum daily value of 17.7 on 29th was not beaten in the past 30 year averages, with the monthly average up by only 0.1 C. Most of the differential was created in the first four days of July.

Edited July 3, 2021 by Roger J Smith

Weather-history · July 2, 2021

The first half of 2021 has been pretty similiar to that of 1966

1996 2.9 5.7 6.5 7.2 11.0 15.4

2021 3.1 5.1 7.2 6.4 10.1 15.5

July 1966 had a CET of 15.0C....

Edited July 2, 2021 by Weather-history

Godber 1 · July 2, 2021

31 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The first half of 2021 has been pretty similiar to that of 1966

1996 2.9 5.7 6.5 7.2 11.0 15.4

2021 3.1 5.1 7.2 6.4 10.1 15.5

July 1966 had a CET of 15.0C....

I wonder if there's a football link in there somewhere?

BLAST FROM THE PAST · July 2, 2021

17c and 30mm

BFTP

Summer Sun · July 2, 2021

16.7c to the 1st

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

East Lancs Rain · July 2, 2021

9 hours ago, Weather-history said:

The first half of 2021 has been pretty similiar to that of 1966

1996 2.9 5.7 6.5 7.2 11.0 15.4

2021 3.1 5.1 7.2 6.4 10.1 15.5

July 1966 had a CET of 15.0C....

Oh dear.....

11 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

July CET 1981-2010 averages, and extremes 1772-2020 with running CET extremes

date _ CET _ (cum) ____ Max, Min 1772-2020 ________ Running CET extremes 1772-2020

01 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 24.6 (2015) __ 10.4 (1773) _____ 24.6 (2015) __ 10.4 (1773)

02 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 22.8 (1976) __ 11.3 (1821) _____ 22.9 (1976) __ 11.0 (1907)

03 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 24.6 (1976) __ 10.1 (1907) _____ 23.4 (1976) __ 10.7 (1907)

04 __ 16.0 __ 15.9 ___ 24.7 (1976) __ 10.0 (1965) _____ 23.8 (1976) __ 11.2 (1907)

05 __ 16.4 __ 16.0 ___ 24.0 (1852) __ 10.7 (1920) _____ 23.8 (1976) __ 11.2 (1907)

06 __ 16.3 __ 16.1 ___ 23.3 (1976) __ 11.3 (1877) _____ 23.7 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

07 __ 16.3 __ 16.1 __ 22.6 (1923,1976) _ 11.1 (1877) ___23.5 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

08 __ 16.6 __ 16.2 __ 21.4 (1870,1976) _ 10.6 (1823) ___23.3 (1976) __ 11.5 (1907)

09 __ 16.3 __ 16.2 ___ 21.6 (1921) __ 11.0 (1856) _____ 22.8 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

10 __ 16.6 __ 16.2 ___ 22.1 (1921) __ 11.2 (1993) _____ 22.3 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

11 __ 16.7 __ 16.3 ___ 22.6 (1783) ___ 9.4 (1888) _____ 22.0 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

12 __ 16.5 __ 16.3 ___ 23.7 (1923) __ 11.0 (1840) _____ 21.9 (1976) __ 11.7 (1907)

13 __ 16.6 __ 16.3 ___ 24.5 (1808) __ 10.2 (1840) _____ 21.6 (1976) __ 11.8 (1907)

14 __ 16.8 __ 16.3 ___ 24.4 (1808) __ 11.7 (1961) _____ 21.4 (1976) __ 12.2 (1907)

15 __ 17.0 __ 16.4 ___ 23.7 (1825) __ 11.5 (1883) _____ 21.2 (1976) __ 12.4 (1879)

16 __ 16.8 __ 16.4 ___ 22.7 (2003) __ 11.5 (1823) _____ 21.0 (1976) __ 12.5 (1879)

17 __ 16.3 __ 16.4 ___ 22.3 (1834) __ 11.0 (1892) _____ 20.7 (1976) __ 12.6 (1879)

18 __ 16.5 __ 16.4 ___ 23.3 (1825) __ 10.1 (1863) _____ 20.6 (1976) __ 12.8 (1879)

19 __ 16.9 __ 16.4 ___ 24.5 (2006) __ 10.6 (1892) _____ 20.5 (1976) __ 12.9 (1879)

20 __ 17.2 __ 16.5 ___ 23.5 (2016) ___ 8.7 (1836) _____ 20.3 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879)

21 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 23.1 (1868) __ 11.3 (1902) _____ 20.0 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879)

22 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 23.2 (1868) __ 11.5 (1902) _____ 19.8 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879)

23 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 22.5 (2019) __ 10.1 (1843) _____ 19.6 (1976) __ 13.1 (1879)

24 __ 16.6 __ 16.5 ___ 23.9 (1818) __ 11.1 (1843) _____ 19.5 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

25 __ 17.0 __ 16.6 ___ 25.2 (2019) __ 10.9 (1920) _____ 19.6 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

26 __ 17.2 __ 16.6 ___ 23.2 (2006) __ 11.0 (1884) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

27 __ 17.2 __ 16.6 ___ 22.5 (2018) __ 10.6 (1867) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

28 __ 17.4 __ 16.6 ___ 23.7 (1948) __ 11.8 (1886,1891) _19.8 (2006)__13.2 (1879)

29 __ 17.7 __ 16.7 ___ 25.2 (1948) __ 11.0 (1816) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.4 (1879)

30 __ 17.4 __ 16.7 ___ 23.1 (1948) __ 10.6 (1786) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.4 (1816)

31 __ 17.2 __ 16.7 ___ 23.7 (2020) __ 10.9 (1841) _____19.7 (2006) __ 13.4 (1816)

_________________________________________________

The most recent daily minimum record was 4th July 1965, since then we have broken or tied 15 daily maxima.

Note also, only three years now hold a daily running CET record high, and 1976 grabbed 2nd to 23rd. 2006 has the rest of the month.

Only four years share any part of lowest running daily mean, 1879 held on until the 29th but was nipped at the finish by 1816 ...

... 1907 does not look like much of a month to sit around outside either especially the first half of it.

_________________________________________________________________--

1991-2020 new daily and cumulative CET values

date ___ mean __ cum _________ date __ mean __ cum ________ date __ mean __ cum

01 ____ 16.4 ____ 16.4 __________ 11 ____ 16.3 ____ 16.3 ________ 21 ____ 16.6 ____ 16.5

02 ____ 16.1 ____ 16.2 __________ 12 ____ 16.2 ____ 16.3 ________ 22 ____ 17.1 ____ 16.6

03 ____ 16.3 ____ 16.3 __________ 13 ____ 16.2 ____ 16.3 ________ 23 ____ 17.5 ____ 16.6

04 ____ 16.5 ____ 16.3 __________ 14 ____ 16.5 ____ 16.3 ________ 24 ____ 17.3 ____ 16.6

05 ____ 16.5 ____ 16.4 __________ 15 ____ 16.6 ____ 16.3 ________ 25 ____ 17.5 ____ 16.7

06 ____ 16.2 ____ 16.3 __________ 16 ____ 17.0 ____ 16.4 ________ 26 ____ 17.5 ____ 16.7

07 ____ 16.2 ____ 16.3 __________ 17 ____ 16.8 ____ 16.4 ________ 27 ____ 17.4 ____ 16.7

08 ____ 16.2 ____ 16.3 __________ 18 ____ 17.0 ____ 16.4 ________ 28 ____ 17.1 ____ 16.7

09 ____ 16.4 ____ 16.3 __________ 19 ____ 17.5 ____ 16.5 ________ 29 ____ 17.4 ____ 16.8

10 ____ 16.5 ____ 16.3 __________ 20 ____ 17.2 ____ 16.5 ________ 30 ____ 17.2 ____ 16.8 ___ 31 ___ 17.4 ___ 16.8

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

July has only warmed slightly in these new normals from the 1981-2010 version and in that case the maximum daily value of 17.7 on 29th was not beaten in the past 30 year averages, with the monthly average up by only 0.1 C. Most of the differential was created in the first four days of July.

Very interesting. Most of the extra warmth has been in the winter period when comparing 1981-2010 with 1991-2020. Thanks for sharing.

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

16.7c to the 1st

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

If we keep it at the same level we'll be bang on the 1981-2010 average.

Edited July 2, 2021 by East Lancs Rain

Timmytour · July 2, 2021

12 hours ago, Weather-history said:

The first half of 2021 has been pretty similiar to that of 1966

1996 2.9 5.7 6.5 7.2 11.0 15.4

2021 3.1 5.1 7.2 6.4 10.1 15.5

July 1966 had a CET of 15.0C....

Certainly been very similar since the middle of May......

Summer Sun · July 3, 2021

17.3c to the 2nd

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.3c on the 2nd
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

damianslaw · July 3, 2021

Surprised how high it is. Must be minima holding things up..

Roger J Smith · July 4, 2021

First look at the EWP ... around 10 mm so far, and 30 mm estimated from GFS ten-day, perhaps 5 mm days 11-16. Total around 45 mm to the 20th.

CET estimate based on 00z GFS run would be staying close to 17 C.

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