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July 2021 CET & EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    18.4c to the 30th

    2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
    1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 18.7c on the 23rd
    Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    22 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    Right or wrong i comment if the CET is too high OR too low, obviously not as you implied...........

    Thanks.

    I think I'll trust the judgement of climatologists who have analysed the data in painstaking detail 😇

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    I think I'll trust the judgement of climatologists who have analysed the data in painstaking detail 😇

    I doubt the provisional data are. As for the final figures -- yes, which is why often see marked adjustments.

    Edited by Relativistic
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    On 31/07/2021 at 15:21, Quicksilver1989 said:

    I think I'll trust the judgement of climatologists who have analysed the data in painstaking detail 😇

    Good for you.

    As i have already proven, your implication regarding my reasoning was incorrect, move on now.

    Thanks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    20 minutes ago, Stationary Front said:

    Looks like 17.7 is confirmed that’s a big drop in the final days

    If confirmed that's another marked downward adjustment at least 0.5 degrees. These are becoming very common and putting distrust in the daily updates...

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Cardiff

    July 2021 had a mean maximum CET of 22.4°C (warmest of any month since July 2018) and a mean minimum CET of 13.1°C (highest minimum CET for July since 2006 and the 7th highest in CET series).  17.7°C is the same as 2014.  Overall a warm month, especially at night (similar to August 2020 which had a mean minimum CET of 13.3°C).

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    50 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    If confirmed that's another marked downward adjustment at least 0.5 degrees. These are becoming very common and putting distrust in the daily updates...

    Remember though, a -0.3C adjustment is applied to account for urban warming, so presuming it finished provisionally on 18.3 then that is an adjustment of -0.27C overall when the urbanisation factor is taken out. Here is the provisional vs actual daily means.

    image.thumb.png.b90c6dba592eaea274ff2b4669314b7d.png

    We can see that the provisional was almost always higher then the actual anomalies through the month. It looks as though the anomalies were higher towards western and northern parts of the UK this month. One of the largest differences in temperatures occurred on the 10th. The anomalies over the UK shown below:

    image.thumb.png.ab7881d732b6b2f6e013eb7ef0c240f4.png

    Below average in the southern UK, so if one of these stations was only considered for the final mean at the end of the month, there is the prospect of a larger correction if there are large differences in anomalies over short spaces.

    You can also see that the 1st has a large adjustment too. It's provisional so it would make sense at the very start of the month that there is the prospect of some larger corrections as more data comes in.

    Finally looking at the last 5 years, the average adjustment excluding urbanisation is +0.06C, so it is actually positive. The largest positive adjustment in recent times was August 2020. The provisional and final CET both ended up on 17.6C, so when accounting for the fact the downwards adjustment is -0.3C for urbanisation, another upwards correction made the provisional and actual CET the same.

    I don't know why the provisional CET has suddenly become a big deal now. It's long been known that 0.2-0.3C is often taken off at the end.

    Edited by Quicksilver1989
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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

    It's a 0.2°C downward adjustment due to urban heating; not 0.3°C.

    The reasoning above is why some were (rightly) sceptical of the provisional figures. There's no need for accusations to be thrown around when there's genuine confusion.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    Just now, Relativistic said:

    It's a 0.2°C downward adjustment due to urban heating; not 0.3°C.

    The reasoning above is why some were (rightly) sceptical of the provisional figures. There's no need for accusations to be thrown around when there's genuine confusion.

    The average since 1974 has indeed been -0.2C, but remember that has increased slightly from -0.1C to -0.3C over time. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    I really don't understand why an adjustment downward of 0.5C needs to be made.

    Now a 2.5C downward one would be much more in tune with what my estimate for the month was.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    17 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

    I really don't understand why an adjustment downward of 0.5C needs to be made.

    Now a 2.5C downward one would be much more in tune with what my estimate for the month was.....

    Only the 1st, 6th, 11th, 29th and 30th had daily CETs below the 1961-90 average (16.1C). Yet taking out the warm period from the 16th to 26th drags the CET down to 16.5C. A lot of days with slightly above average temperatures despite the unsettled theme.

    With regards to the correction, see my post above, though it'd probably be easier to just take off -0.3C for the provisional as things stand anyway. Not really much else to say in addition to that. It isn't their fault that they don't have all the required data at the time of updating it provisionally.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

    The July 2021 CET is confirmed as 17.71*C; rounded to 17.7 it shares the same mean as Julys 2014 and 1999 in recent times.  The most notable feature of the month was the heatwave from the 16th to 22nd; apart from that the rest of the month otherwise felt fairly average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

    At 17.7c July 2021 shares the same mean CET with July's:

    1800

    1900

    1955

    1999

    2014

     

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Interesting 0.7c degrees down from Sunny Sheffield.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    Posted (edited)

    The EWP estimate is currently 88 mm (87 mm to 30th, looks like about 1 mm the grid average for 31st). Will confirm this tomorrow but in any case not all that confident that the 88 mm will end up being all that close to the final value issued on the 5th, as quite a few days recently have seemed a bit under-cooked on the tracker. Also my forecast being 87.2 mm produces a natural hesitation to accept 88 mm. 🙂 ended up at 90.4 mm and I have reworked the table below slightly as a result.

    The revisions to CET brought the seven-day heat wave spell of 20+ days down to a six-day spell so I will make the appropriate changes to posts here and there about that in due time. 

    With the value of 17.7, this would be your top CET scoring list (with EWP forecasts where provided). As always, this is from the table of entries and subject to confirmation from CET scoring host J10 ...

     

     

    17.7 _ 69.0 __ Emmett Garland ( 17 ) _________________

    17.6 _ 45.0 __ rwtwm ( 12 ) ___________________________

    17.8 _ 71.0 __ seaside60 ( 34 ) _______________________ 

    17.9 _ 66.0 __ Summer18 ( 11 ) ______________________

    17.5 _ 58.0 __ Feb91Blizzard ( 42 ) ____________________

    17.4 _ ------ __ dancerwithwings ( 25 ) ________________ 

    17.4 _ 96.0 __ Godber 1 ( 48 ) ________________________ (7th CET and 9th EWP for 16 total ranking points) t-1

    18.1 _ 60.2 __ Polar Gael ( 07 ) _______________________

    17.3 _ 82.0 __ virtualsphere ( 09 ) ____________________ (9th CET, 10th EWP for 19 total ranking points) 3rd

    17.3 _ 80.0 __ B87 ( 30 ) ______________________________ 

    17.3 _ 50.0 __ Mulzy ( 35 ) ____________________________ 

    17.3 _ 52.3 __ Thundery wintry showers ( L1-4 ) ______ 

    17.2 _ 73.0 __ February1978  ( 49 ) ___________________ 

    17.2 _ ------ __ Duncan McAlister ( 52 ) ________________ 

    17.1 _ 90.0 __ Summer Blizzard ( 20 ) _________________ (15th CET and 1st EWP for 16 total ranking points) - t1

    17.1 _ ------ __ Summer Sun ( 38 ) _____________________

    17.1 _ 89.2 __ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 44 ) _______________ (17th CET and 3rd EWP for 20 total ranking points) - 4th

    17.1 _ 59.0 __ Stargazer ( 47 ) ________________________ 

    ______________________________________________________________

    Best combined turned out as a tie between Midlands Ice Age and summer blizzard. 

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    A better month than June. Broad pattern I picked out but the hot spell as per June was warmer than expected. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    On 01/08/2021 at 13:14, Relativistic said:

    It's a 0.2°C downward adjustment due to urban heating; not 0.3°C.

    The reasoning above is why some were (rightly) sceptical of the provisional figures. There's no need for accusations to be thrown around when there's genuine confusion.

    Yes it is a 0.2 adjustment due to urban heating, and not 0.3, that was incorrectly posted................

    And thanks yes , no need at all for accusations to be thrown around, even more so when they turn out to be totally wrong .

    To be clear, i posted last week that there would have to be a huge downward correction, of 0.5 or more, to justify my concerns with the provisional figures ......

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    A very good month here overall- a bit of a shame about the last few days of the month which have prevented an 18C+ finish. It's been unusual for a warm month in that the south has been cooler than the north for much of it.

    Minima have actually been on the low side of average here which has brought the overall mean down at my local station. Average max of 22.9C over the month which is comfortably above average for these parts and that's with the cooler spell at the end of the month that brought it down.

    188.6 hours of sunshine, which is slightly above average but actually impressive when you consider how dull the first half of the month was- we only had 61,2 hours up to the 15th and then 127.4 hours for the second half of the month. So a very sunny and warm second half of the month.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    15 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    Yes it is a 0.2 adjustment due to urban heating, and not 0.3, that was incorrectly posted................

    And thanks yes , no need at all for accusations to be thrown around, even more so when they turn out to be totally wrong .

    To be clear, i posted last week that there would have to be a huge downward correction, of 0.5 or more, to justify my concerns with the provisional figures ......

    I'll quote the relevant text...

    "Since 1974 the data have been adjusted by 0.1-0.3 degree C to allow for urban warming. The following stations are used by the Met Office to compile the CET data: Rothamsted, Malvern, Squires Gate and Ringway. But in November 2004, the weather station Stonyhurst replaced Ringway and revised urban warming and bias adjustments have now been applied to the Stonyhurst data after a period of reduced reliability from the station in the summer months"

    The average adjustment since 1974 has been -0.2C though that adjustment has increased in recent years to the adjustments required to the Stonyhurst station to make the series homogenous.

    You didn't make it clear in your original post that you were referring to provisional data which said:

    "Their daily figures are all over the place and have been wrong now for many months. In fact I don't trust their data at all!"

    Well the fact that such an effort is made to keep the CET series homogenous means we can trust the data even more. Yes provisional data is subject to adjustments but that is not an earth shattering revelation and it isn't something that is suddenly new.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

    A better month than June. Broad pattern I picked out but the hot spell as per June was warmer than expected. 

    Not down here one week of summer, in June had two weeks, 130mm of rain incredibly wet 360% of average which is phenomenal, following on 90mm in June. Awful summer month. Worst summer since 2012 in London.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    Interestingly.... if you combine Junes CET (15.5c) with Julys (17.7c) then the mean for the two months is 16.6c .

    I make that the 5th hottest CET for June and July in the last 100 years...
    1976 = 17.85c
    2006 = 17.8c
    2018 = 17.6c
    1933 = 16.7c
    2021= 16.6c

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    The EWP came in at 90 mm on the tracker, but as I am not entirely sure where it may come in on the 5th, no provisional scoring yet ... will post on the 5th from the adjusted value. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm, sunny summers
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
    2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

    Interestingly.... if you combine Junes CET (15.5c) with Julys (17.7c) then the mean for the two months is 16.6c .

    I make that the 5th hottest CET for June and July in the last 100 years...
    1976 = 17.85c
    2006 = 17.8c
    2018 = 17.6c
    1933 = 16.7c
    2021= 16.6c

    What I also found interesting was how whilst the UK tmean for June/July 2021 was the 4th warmest since 1884, it was largely due to minimums and to an extent maximums in Scotland and Northern Ireland too. It was only the 12th warmest for England and 11th warmest for Wales since 1884 in terms of maxima.

    image.thumb.png.c91425c364f59baecd4c9cfe6bf418f2.png

    Perhaps not a surprise at all to those in the south that have found it quite unremarkable in terms of high temperatures since the first half of June.

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