July 2021 CET & EWP forecast contests

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Interestingly.... if you combine Junes CET (15.5c) with Julys (17.7c) then the mean for the two months is 16.6c .

I make that the 5th hottest CET for June and July in the last 100 years...
1976 = 17.85c
2006 = 17.8c
2018 = 17.6c
1933 = 16.7c
2021= 16.6c

Big gap between 2018 and 1933, shows how warm the June-July combos of 1976, 2006 and 2018 were.

My reflections of 2021 so far don't mirror this statistic whatsoever, but I think it's because we've had little in the way of any cooler than average weather, take out the mid-late July period and temps have been average or a bit above most of the time, without anything exceptional so far..

BBC said this July was the fifth warmest in the CET series as well, again, it hasn't felt a Top 5 July. Had we seen current synoptics at some point in the month, much cooler nights would have made a dent in the CET. Alas, there has been little coolness at all in the evenings. Right now though we have a cool airstream overhead and clear skies, single digit mins.. 

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, BruenSryan said:

What I also found interesting was how whilst the UK tmean for June/July 2021 was the 4th warmest since 1884, it was largely due to minimums and to an extent maximums in Scotland and Northern Ireland too. It was only the 12th warmest for England and 11th warmest for Wales since 1884 in terms of maxima.

Perhaps not a surprise at all to those in the south that have found it quite unremarkable in terms of high temperatures since the first half of June.

Overall despite whatever the statistics tell us, come end of August, I think many will call Summer 2021 'unremarkable', I'm not expecting anything special from August despite these sensationalist headlines about 40 degree 2 week heatwave, that always appear on the first Monday of August it seems! The traditional 'silly season'...

[mushymanrob]

40 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Big gap between 2018 and 1933, shows how warm the June-July combos of 1976, 2006 and 2018 were.

My reflections of 2021 so far don't mirror this statistic whatsoever, but I think it's because we've had little in the way of any cooler than average weather, take out the mid-late July period and temps have been average or a bit above most of the time, without anything exceptional so far..

BBC said this July was the fifth warmest in the CET series as well, again, it hasn't felt a Top 5 July. Had we seen current synoptics at some point in the month, much cooler nights would have made a dent in the CET. Alas, there has been little coolness at all in the evenings. Right now though we have a cool airstream overhead and clear skies, single digit mins.. 

Yep, i get that, and southern regions its been poor. But northern have fared better with northern ireland breaking temp records on 3 occassions.. 

[damianslaw]

30 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Yep, i get that, and southern regions its been poor. But northern have fared better with northern ireland breaking temp records on 3 occassions.. 

Yes there has been a marked skew in affairs so far, the opposite to the usual NW-SE divide outcome.. so far the NW seeing the best of the drier conditions and consequently more higher temps compared to the norm. All symptomatic of the highly meridional amplified buckled jer that has held away by and large since December. Swings from dry to wet and cold to mild.

[Scorcher]

On 02/08/2021 at 16:41, mushymanrob said:

Interestingly.... if you combine Junes CET (15.5c) with Julys (17.7c) then the mean for the two months is 16.6c .

I make that the 5th hottest CET for June and July in the last 100 years...
1976 = 17.85c
2006 = 17.8c
2018 = 17.6c
1933 = 16.7c
2021= 16.6c

Such a remarkable stat- who'd have thought it?

Amazing to see years such as 1995, 2003 and 1983 not in there.

I suppose many of the great summers didn't really get going until late July onwards.

Perhaps tells us a lot about modern summers which seem to be 'front-loaded' with few very hot Augusts.

 

Edited August 3, 2021 by Scorcher

[damianslaw]

59 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Such a remarkable stat- who'd have thought it?

Amazing to see years such as 1995, 2003 and 1983 not in there.

I suppose many of the great summers didn't really get going until late July onwards.

Perhaps tells us a lot about modern summers which seem to be 'front-loaded' with few very hot Augusts.

 

Yes August has failed to deliver by and large since 2003. Last year delivered early on but fell flat on its face mid month. 

1995 brought a cool June. August 95 truly exceptional, our warmest driest month on record.

[J10]

Excel -> July 21 CET.xlsx

PDF -> July 2021 Summary.pdf

Monthly
Over 1 correct entrant this month, emmett garland. With 2 more 0.2c out. rwtwm and seaside 60

Seasonal
A largely new 1-2-3 this month. With Monthly winner emmett garland taking the lead.

Overall

Again a few changes this month.

Stargazer up to 1st from 4th.
Reef 2nd from 1st and
Polar Gael 3rd from 9th.

However with only 5 points covering the Top 5, this is completely wide open this year.

[Roger J Smith]

Report on Consensus and the two Normals in CET contest

For the CET contest, we do not officially score consensus or the two recent normals. (In the EWP contest they are tracked). So here's an update which shows how our consensus (median rather than mean) and the two normals have been doing. 1991-2020 played December as 1990-2019. All I can report here is their rank in each contest, as the other scoring parameters are a bit too complex for me to recreate after the fact. The rank shown is equivalent to the highest scoring forecaster at that temperature level, some others would have ranked lower (higher rank numbers). 

The number in brackets beside the rank is the number of forecasts submitted. 

 

Robotic forecaster ____ DEC rank ___ JAN rank ___ FEB rank ___ MAR rank ___ APR rank ___ MAY rank ___ JUN rank ___ JUL rank __ average rank

Consensus ____________ 27th (97) ___ 16th (78) ___38th (80) ___ 22nd (62) ____ 30th (62) ___ 31st (64) ___ 14th (66) ___ 25th (58) _____ 25th (71)

1981-2010 normal ____ 27th (97) ____51st (78) ___ 5th (80) ____ 36th (62) ____ 37th (62) ___ 48th (64) ___ 28th (66) ___ 30th (58) _____ 33rd (71) 

1991-2020 normal* ___ 4th (97) _____56th (78) ___ 3rd (80)____ 33rd (62) ____ 48th (62) ___ 51st (64) ___ 31st (66) ___ 28th (58) _____ 32nd (71)

Consensus error _______ --0.4 ________ --0.3 _______ --2.1 ______ --0.3 _________ +1.9 _______ +1.0 _______ --0.2 _______ --0.8 _________ avg abs 0.88

1981-2010 error _______ --0.4 _________ +1.3 _______ --0.7 ______ --0.6 _________ +2.1 _______ +1.6 _______ --1.0 _______ --1.0 _________ avg abs 1.09

1991-2020 error _______ --0.1 _________ +1.6 _______ --0.2 ______ --0.5 _________ +2.6 _______ +1.8 _______ --0.8 _______ --0.9 _________ avg abs 1.06

mean bias of consensus is --0.15, mean bias of 1981-2010 is +0.16, mean bias of 1991-2020 is +0.39

ANALYSIS: The scoring performance of consensus continues to edge ahead of the other two robotic forecasters, with consensus performing closer to 15th and the normals closer to 20th-25th in comparison with actual forecasters. Normals did better in Feb and our consensus did better in Jan, May and June, there was little to choose in the other four months and in April they all did quite poorly. 

They all do better in the EWP where their ranks are closer to 10th. 

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP has settled for now at 90.4 mm. Scoring is adjusted as follows ...

 

JULY FORECASTS _______________________ ANNUAL SCORING (provisional scores for July)

rank _ fcst _ forecaster ____ points _____ rank _ points _ forecaster (avg error and rank)

 1.  90.0 _ summer blizzard _10.00 _____ 1. 58.02 _ snowray __________ (29.13 mm - 1st)

 2. 90.0 _ syed2878 _________ 9.88______ 2. 55.74 _ Feb91blizzard ____ (31.71 mm - 6th)

 3. 89.2 _Kirkcaldy Weather _9.58 ______ 3. 53.06 _ Don _______________(30.66 mm - 2nd)

 4. 89.0 _WalsallWoodSnow_ 9.37 ______ 4. 51.64 _ Midlands Ice Age _ (31.76 mm - 7th)

 5. 87.2 _ Roger J Smith _____ 9.16 ______ 5. 51.05 _ Relativistic ________ (31.19 mm - 3rd)

 6. 93.5 _ Midlands Ice Age _ 8.95_______ 6. 50.49 _ virtualsphere _____ (32.88 mm - 8th) 

 7. 85.0 _ davehsug _________ 8.74 ______ 7. 49.75 _ noname_weather _ (35.34 mm - 13th)

 8. 96.0 _ Weather26 ________8.53 ______ 8. 49.67 _ davehsug _________ (31.41 mm - 4th)

 9. 96.0 _ Godber 1 _________ 8.41 ______ 9. 47.89 _ Reef ______________ (31.50 mm - 5th)**

10 82.0 _ virtualsphere _____ 8.11 _____ 10 47.41 _ federico __________ (34.67 mm - 11th) *

11 82.0 _ noname_weather _7.99 ______11 46.70 _ Bobd29 ___________(38.36 mm - 18th)

12 82.0 _ East Lancs Rain^ __7.57 ______12 45.45 _ Roger J Smith _____(34.33 mm - 10th)

13 80.0 _ weather-history ___7.26 _____ 13 42.13 _ Godber 1 _________ (35.99 mm - 14th)

14 81.0 _ daniel* ^ _________7.18 ______ 14 44.18 _ February1978 _____(37.29 mm - 16th)

15 80.0 _ B87 _______________7.14 ______15 43.45 _ seaside60 _________(36.94 mm - 15th)

16 80.0 _ Relativistic ^ ______6.72 ______ 16 41.85 _ The PIT ___________ (40.94 mm - 29th)

17 77.0 _ shillitocettwo _____ 6.63 ______17 41.07 _ Kirkcaldy Weather_ (42.46 mm - 33rd)

18 77.0 _ MrMaunder _______6.51 ______ 18 39.40 _ Leo97t ____________ (44.21 mm - 36th)

19 77.0 _ Neil N _____________6.39_______19 39.32 _ Mr Maunder ______ (39.34 mm - 21st)

20 76.5 _ snowray __________ 6.00_______ 20 38.62 _ Blast From The Past (43.11 mm - 34th)

21 105.0_I Rem Atl 252 _____ 5.80 ______ 21 38.61 _ Ed Stone __________ (38.59 mm - 19th)

22 75.0 _ Jeff C ______________5.58 ______ 22 38.58 _ DR(S)NO __________ (38.95 mm - 23rd)

23 75.0 _ DR(S)NO __________ 5.46 ______ 23 38.16 _ Jonboy ____________ (39.19 mm - 20th)

24 75.0 _ Leo97t ____________5.34 ______ 24 38.02 _ Jeff C ______________(38.34 mm - 17th)

25 75.0 _ Don _______________5.22 ______ 25 36.56 _ WalsallWoodSnow _(39.55 mm - 22nd)

26 73.0 _ February1978 _____ 4.77______ 26 36.42 _  J10 ________________ (40.15 mm - 25th)

27 71.0 _ seaside60 _________ 4.56 ______ 27 36.27 _ summer blizzard __ (40.16 mm - 26th)

28 70.0 _ J10 _________________4.36______ 28 35.77 _ syed2878 __________ (41.90 mm - 30th)

29 71.0 _ BornFromtheVoid^_4.14 ______ 29 35.46 _ Polar Gael _________ (34.04 mm - 9th)

30 111.0_ Timmytour ________ 3.94______ 30 34.74 _ Mulzy _____________ (40.15 mm - 26th)

31 69.0 _ Emmett Garland ___ 3.74 ______ 31 34.64 _ BornFromtheVoid _(39.56 mm - 23rd)

32 113.0_ Thundershine _____ 3.53 ______ 32 34.59 _ Frigid _____________ (35.33 mm - 12th)*

33 66.0 _ summer18 _________ 3.32 ______ 33 33.78 _ SteveB ____________ (44.06 mm - 36th)

34 65.0 _ Ed Stone ___________ 3.10 ______ 34 33.01 _ Weather26 _______ (40.80 mm - 27th)*

35 61.0 _ jonboy _____________ 2.88 ______ 35 32.91 _ Emmett Garland __ (42.06 mm - 31st)

36 120.0_ Frigid ______________2.70 ______ 36 32.73 _ Stationary Front ___ (42.21 mm - 32nd)

37 60.2 _ Polar Gael __________2.46 ______ 37 31.38 _ Shillitocettwo _____ (45.04 mm - 39th)

__________________________________________ 38 31.32 _ sundog ____________ (47.37 mm - 41st) (6/8)

38 59.0 _ Stargazer __________ 2.24 ______ 39 30.58 _ daniel* ____________ (44.81 mm - 38th)

__________________________________________ 40 30.39 _ Diagonal Red Line _ (49.90 mm - 45th)*

39 58.0 _ Feb91Blizzard ______2,03 ______ 41 29.24 _ Timmytour _________(46.51 mm - 40th)

40 56.0 _ Stationary Front ___ 1.82 ______ 42 28.71 _ weather-history ____ (44.04 mm - 35th)

41 127.0_ Let It Snow! _______ 1.67 ______ 44 28.34 _ I Rem Atl 252 ______ (51.04 mm - 47th)

42 50.0 _ Earthshine _________1.19 ______ 46 26.61 _ B87 ________________ (49.74 mm - --- ---) (5/8)

43 52.3 _Thundery Wintry Showers^ 1,10 _____ 47 26.10 _ Stargazer ___________ (48.49 mm - 44th)

44 50.0 _ Mulzy _____________ 1.07 ______ 46 25.95 _ Summer18 _________ (47.96 mm - 43rd)

45 45.0 _ rwtwm _____________0.80 ______ 50 25.10 _ Neil N _____________ (47.79 mm - 42nd)

46 45.0 _ The PIT ____________ 0.68 ______ 52 19.03 _ Earthshine ________ (50.44 mm - 46th)*

47 136.0 _Steve B ___________ 0.48 ______ 54 18.06 _ Let It Snow! ________ (51.37 mm - 48th) (6/8)

48 44.0 _ Bobd29 ____________0.32 ______ 58 15.91 _ rwtwm _____________ (27.90 mm - --- ---) (3/8)

49 30.0 _ BlastFromThePast^_0.02 ______ 63 13.01 _ Thundery Wintry Showers (28.83 mm - --- ---) (3/8)

50 155.0_Robbie Garrett ____ 0.00 ______ 64 12.68 _ WeatherEnthusiast91 (40.37 mm - ---- ) (3/8)

__________________________________________66 12.00 _ East Lancs Rain ____ (10.40 mm - --- ---) (2/8)

__________________________________________89 _5.28 _ Robbie Garrett _____ (37.50 mm - --- ---) (2/8)

__________________________________________95 _ 3.69 _ Thundershine _____ (70.90 mm - --- ---) (2/8)

______________________________________________________________

^ one day late, for some scores this places the rank below that of a forecast with a slightly higher error.

** Reef would have scored about 4 points with a three-day late penalty applied to a forecast mentioned in the thread at +4 days.

* Federico, Frigid, DiagonalRedLine and Earthshine have also played 7 months out of 8. Others with fewer months have the number of months entered in brackets after their other data. 

The table only lists the annual rankings of those who entered July (and Reef, Federico), however since sundog, DiagonalRedLine and Weather Enthusiast91 entered the August contest the relevant data for them are added to the table. Average errors are only ranked for those who have entered 6 to 8 months as of July. 

Excel scoring file now available: 

EWP2020_21_JUL.xlsx

Edited August 5, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

As a result of the somewhat higher EWP, the best combined forecast is a tie between Midlands Ice Age (7th CET, 9th EWP) and summer blizzard (15th, 1st) for 16 total ranking points. Virtualsphere is now third at (9, 10, 19) and Kirkcaldy Weather fourth at (17, 3, 20). 

[Stargazer]

Many thanks to Roger and J10 for all the hard work in putting the competition together. I seem to have somehow sneaked up to the top of the overall CET competition table - don't suppose it'll last! Certainly everything to play for.