July 2021 CET & EWP forecast contests

[Timmytour]

I think - for the first 15 days of July - the highest minimum CET recorded for any year is 10.9C  (1944 and 1999) and the highest average minimum CET is 14.4C  (1947).

I'm not totally sure though!  Can anyone verify these stats and if they stand up, will 2021 threaten to take over?

[Summer Sun]

17.0c to the 13th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.5c on the 3rd & 4th
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 17.2 +1.5C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

17.1c to the 14th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.5c on the 3rd & 4th
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

[Earthshine]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

17.1c to the 14th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.5c on the 3rd & 4th
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

Reckon that will shoot up rather quickly soon.

[summer blizzard]

Just taken a look and the first half will come in warmer than the first half of July 19 (16.8) but will be nowhere close to 2018 (19.6).

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 17.4C +1.6C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

 

[Summer Sun]

17.1c to the 15th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.5c on the 3rd & 4th
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

[damianslaw]

On 14/07/2021 at 14:47, East Lancs Rain said:

Looking like a warm and wet month then. A common combo these days in a warming climate. Wet months tend to have above average minima due to all the rain and cloud which helps to keep the CET up.

Last July a bit of an exception here. Both very wet but also notably cool, hardly any day hit more than 20 degrees. Only warmed up at the tail end. This July certainly looks like being a warm one and potentially a wet one if we see an unsettled last week as currently being forecast. A month of three sections, wet start and end and a lovely warm dry middle perhaps..

[Roger J Smith]

EWP at 55 mm and will stay there for about a week before (according to GFS ten-day) heavy rains move into the south and bring an average of about 20 mm to the grid (locally 70-80 mm in the Welsh border region). A look at maps for days 11-15 suggests 10-15 mm more possible, so the total could be 85-90 mm but with the caveat that the mid-range is mostly based on one event a week away. 

The CET looks like it might approach 18 then back off a bit, as suggested a few days ago, best positioned forecasts seem to be mid 17s. 

If some of this predicted rain fails to appear then seaside60 and Emmett Garland have good combinations of CET and EWP forecasts. 

[Summer Sun]

17.2c to the 16th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.5c on the 3rd & 4th
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 17.6C +1.8C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield  up to 17.8C +1.9C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Another big jump for today and probably smaller ones next week. So will not far from 19C by the end of next week.

[Roger J Smith]

Yesterday's provisional CET 21.4 not quite a record (22.3 1834) but warmest since (currently 21.2 1983). This moved the CET up to 17.5  (will post the usual  summary details if they don't appear by midnight). 

Final value only 20.5, leaving 1983 in place as warmest since 1834 record. _ added Aug 6th. 

Edited August 7, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[Earthshine]

2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Yesterday's provisional CET 21.4 not quite a record (22.3 1834) but warmest since (currently 21.2 1983). This moved the CET up to 17.5  (will post the usual  summary details if they don't appear by midnight). 

A warm month looking likely (i.e. mid to high 17s, possibly 18)?

[summer blizzard]

Gavin in the other realm estimated 17.95C last night, warmer in tonight's models.

We could end up with a 18C+ month thanks to the first half creeping up despite feeling no better than average.

[Don]

3 hours ago, Earthshine said:

A warm month looking likely (i.e. mid to high 17s, possibly 18)?

Yep

[Roger J Smith]

17.5c to the 16th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

1.1c above the 91 to 20 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.5c on the 3rd & 4th & 17th
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

Y

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 18.1C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

17.8c to the 18th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.8c on the 18th
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

[Earthshine]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

17.8c to the 18th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.8c on the 18th
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

CET increasing rather rapidly and we still have a few more days of widespread heat (rather than just concentrated in the SE corner of the UK).  Out of curiosity, how are CET estimates created?  Do we just look at the forecast for a number of regions in the CET zone and average them out, or if their a forecast for the entire CET region?

[Roger J Smith]

Yesterday's provisional CET of 22.4 once again below the record (23.3 1825) but warmest since then (22.1 2006 held that position). 

(Revised down to 21.2 in final data, 2006 holds on to warmest since record of 1825). _ added Aug 6th.

The estimates can be based on public forecasts, GFS numerical output, or subjective looks at weather charts, to answer the question posed. In my case the estimates I provide are based on some combination of all of these. At the moment, my end of month estimate is 18.0 to 18.2 based on the current value rising to around 18.5 to 18.7 by end of the week as it stays about as hot as the past two days, and then falling gradually with means close to 16 indicated for next week. We had only six forecasts above 17.6 C (Earthshine 20.1, shillitocettwo 18.9, Polar Gael 18.1, summer18 17.9, seaside60 17.8, Emmett Garland 17.7) with rwtwm at 17.6 and Feb91blizzard at 17.5. 

Edited August 7, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[feb1991blizzard]

3 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Yesterday's provisional CET of 22.4 once again below the record (23.3 1825) but warmest since then (22.1 2006 held that position). 

The estimates can be based on public forecasts, GFS numerical output, or subjective looks at weather charts, to answer the question posed. In my case the estimates I provide are based on some combination of all of these. At the moment, my end of month estimate is 18.0 to 18.2 based on the current value rising to around 18.5 to 18.7 by end of the week as it stays about as hot as the past two days, and then falling gradually with means close to 16 indicated for next week. We had only six forecasts above 17.6 C (Earthshine 20.1, shillitocettwo 18.9, Polar Gael 18.1, summer18 17.9, seaside60 17.8, Emmett Garland 17.7) with rwtwm at 17.6 and Feb91blizzard at 17.5. 

wished id have stuck with my original 18 now.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 18.4C +2.4C above average. Rainfall stuck 54.8mm 85.8% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

18.0c to the 19th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 18.0c on the 19th
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st