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July 2021 CET & EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
2 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

CET still holding up nicely despite recent poor weather in the south.

A fairly warm first half to July on the cards.. continuing the theme of the summer so far.. warm but not especially so with no real heat yet... second half of summer tends to deliver highest warmth of the year but on average is wetter.. high minima come more into play in this regard, thanks to much cloudier nights. 

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter
4 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

CET still holding up nicely despite recent poor weather in the south.

Reckon we could get close to a 18°C month if we get some proper summer warmth next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
7 hours ago, damianslaw said:

A fairly warm first half to July on the cards.. continuing the theme of the summer so far.. warm but not especially so with no real heat yet... second half of summer tends to deliver highest warmth of the year but on average is wetter.. high minima come more into play in this regard, thanks to much cloudier nights. 

I think a comfortably above average July is now likely and my CET guess of 16.5C in serious trouble already!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 16.9C +1.6C above normal. Rainfall 48.9mm 76.5% of the monthly average.

Amazing that we have such a long warm spell yet without any prolonged hot weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
13 minutes ago, saintkip said:

I can’t believe we are above average temp for July, it’s been shocking down here in Hampshire, raining again as I type.

I think the consistent warmth in the air is partly what's locked in the consistent moisture in the air!  Looks like we might get the Azores high edging in anyway, but I'd like to first see the Atlantic sweep all this away and then for us to start afresh!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

17.0c to the 9th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.5c on the 3rd & 4th
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 17C +1.7C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 48.9mm 76.5% of the monthly average.

Interesting if we end up warmer again than the CET zone.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield up to 17C +1.7C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 48.9mm 76.5% of the monthly average.

Interesting if we end up warmer again than the CET zone.

Could be another month like June whereby we don't see any notable heat, just consistent warmth or near average temps aided by mild nights. In memory a month not remembered as particularly hot with heatwave conditions but on the CET series will be in the higher warmth ranks. We've had a number of summer months recently that have delivered shots of intense heat yet in the main have also brought alot of cool Atlantic air, yet will be remembered as being very hot due to the intense heat. 

We are only on the 11th July and a heat burst could still manifest circa widespread highs above 28 degrees in the north and 32 in the south, my marker of hotness.. not mid 20s in the north and high 20s in the south, markers of an average level of warmth at some stage in an average summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
5 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Could be another month like June whereby we don't see any notable heat, just consistent warmth or near average temps aided by mild nights. In memory a month not remembered as particularly hot with heatwave conditions but on the CET series will be in the higher warmth ranks. We've had a number of summer months recently that have delivered shots of intense heat yet in the main have also brought alot of cool Atlantic air, yet will be remembered as being very hot due to the intense heat. 

True that we haven't seen any notable warmth so far- but it's been consistently fairly warm by day as well as by night here- averaging 21.3C so far. Minima around average so far.

So here at least, it's the day time highs more than night time mins that have kept the average high.

It's been a very wet first third of the month and also very dull overall- but notable how few cool days there have been (only one day hasn't reached 20C so far in July, and that was 19.1C) even going back to the start of June.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

17.0c to the 10th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

(0.7c above the 91 to 20 average)

___________________________

Current high this month 17.5c on the 3rd & 4th
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield still at 17C +1.6C above normal. Rainfall 51.2mm 80.1% of the monthly average.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

17.0c to the 11th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.5c on the 3rd & 4th
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
26 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

17.0c to the 11th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.5c on the 3rd & 4th
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

Looking like a very warm month is on the cards potentially, with the warm spell just around the corner.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Still a tad early to say with the final third mostly unmodelled by anybody but the GFS but yes a CET similar to 2014/2019 is probable right now, possibly rivalling 2013 should we maintain the upcoming pattern.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield still at 17C +1.5C above normal. Rainfall 53.3mm 83.4% of the monthly average.

Yesterdays low maximum offset by the mild night so now change. Some hot and unpleasant weather on the way so an outside chance of giving summer 2006 a run for it's money here.

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
On 10/07/2021 at 11:59, saintkip said:

I can’t believe we are above average temp for July, it’s been shocking down here in Hampshire, raining again as I type.

Yeah it really has been bad. 

The cloudy conditions have kept the temps up at night, but its' still been poor for sunshine.

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
On 10/07/2021 at 12:14, Timmytour said:

I think the consistent warmth in the air is partly what's locked in the consistent moisture in the air!  Looks like we might get the Azores high edging in anyway, but I'd like to first see the Atlantic sweep all this away and then for us to start afresh!

Yes I noticed that. It's been around since late May. The switch from cool nights to warmer ones usually happens between late May and early June.

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
On 10/07/2021 at 12:14, Timmytour said:

I think the consistent warmth in the air is partly what's locked in the consistent moisture in the air!  Looks like we might get the Azores high edging in anyway, but I'd like to first see the Atlantic sweep all this away and then for us to start afresh!

Where has all this persistent cloud come from?

I remember in summers gone by, even during a cold summer, cloud would seem to linger. The difference here is, we seem to be missing the widespread storm events.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Doubt we will challenge it at any point but can we confirm 2018 to the 15th and 20th. Obviously the first third won't have beaten.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

17.0c to the 12th

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.5c on the 3rd & 4th
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

EWP is currently around 55 mm (51 mm to 11th, and about 4 mm on average 12th). The ten-day GFS estimate indicates around 20-25 mm to the 23rd and the maps for days 11 to 16 look like adding around 10 mm for a grand total of 85-90 mm. It should be said that most of the rain in the ten-day estimate comes after the 144h mark so there would be considerable uncertainty about that portion. 

The CET will begin to climb steadily now and could top 18 within a week, might reach 18.4 or so around middle of next week, after which it would likely fall back somewhat, so that forecast values in the mid 17 range look well positioned at this point. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 17.1C +1.6C above average. Rainfall 54.8mm 85.8% of the monthly average.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, not too cold
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England

Looking like a warm and wet month then. A common combo these days in a warming climate. Wet months tend to have above average minima due to all the rain and cloud which helps to keep the CET up.

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Posted
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, not too cold
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
On 11/07/2021 at 16:01, Scorcher said:

True that we haven't seen any notable warmth so far- but it's been consistently fairly warm by day as well as by night here- averaging 21.3C so far. Minima around average so far.

So here at least, it's the day time highs more than night time mins that have kept the average high.

It's been a very wet first third of the month and also very dull overall- but notable how few cool days there have been (only one day hasn't reached 20C so far in July, and that was 19.1C) even going back to the start of June.

 

Yes it's been a fairly dull and wet first half to July but also warm. I'd expect the minima to be higher than the maxima (relative to average) due to all the cloud and rain, it's certainly felt very warm and oppressive at night. Last July was also wet and dull, but much much cooler, with barely a day above 20C!

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