July 2021 CET & EWP forecast contests

[Scorcher]

9 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Surprised how high it is. Must be minima holding things up..

I'm surprised that you're surprised- warm nights the last couple of nights in the CET zone and still reaching the lows 20s by day. It could actually rise again today.

[Summer Sun]

17.5c to the 3rd

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.5c on the 3rd
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

[Summer Sun]

17.5c to the 4th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.5c on the 3rd & 4th
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

[reef]

Another one here who didn't realise time was getting on and forgot to put a prediction in in time. 

I imagine the penalty is too large now so Ill just say I think its going to be slightly warmer than average with close to average rainfall overall.

[damianslaw]

On 04/07/2021 at 10:08, Scorcher said:

I'm surprised that you're surprised- warm nights the last couple of nights in the CET zone and still reaching the lows 20s by day. It could actually rise again today.

Yes I haven't kept an eye on minima but under the cloud and rain it has held well. A value indicative of the wet moist south westerly airstream that gives high CET means in winter with little dirunal range despite temps just above average, minima pulls the values up but it doesn't feel mild.

Mind maxima this July here has been average at best, today a bit below. We can have very high maxima cancelled out by cool minima in the summer, yet it feels much warmer overall. CET mean values mean little really in this respect, a couple of hours of a minima 5 degrees with a high of 26 degrees would return a value of only 15.5 degrees compared to a day of maxima at 21 degrees and minima at 14 degrees which returns a 17.5 degrees. The day with maxima of 26 degrees will feel far much warmer overall and leave a much more lasting impression.. most of the day staying very warm only in the depth of the night, around 3pm does it drop to 5 degrees.

The CET mean can and often does mask the realities of the day..and month.

 

Edited July 5, 2021 by damianslaw

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16.8C +1.8C above normal. Rainfall 35.3mm 55.2% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

17.2c to the 5th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.5c on the 3rd & 4th
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

[damianslaw]

9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

17.2c to the 5th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.5c on the 3rd & 4th
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

Nothing overly warm on the horizon, indeed temps perhaps a little below the July average maxima, but minima likely to hold up somewhat, so a slow slide likely in days ahead. Could be in the mid 16s this time next week.. unlike most months I suspect July sees little variation in running mean from start to end, a slight climb possibly? Would be interesting to note when we reach our yearly average maxim CET wise, late July or early-mid August?

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.6C +1.6C above normal. Rainfall 36.7mm 57.4% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

16.9c to the 6th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.5c on the 3rd & 4th
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

[Roger J Smith]

On 05/07/2021 at 07:20, reef said:

Another one here who didn't realise time was getting on and forgot to put a prediction in in time. 

I imagine the penalty is too large now so Ill just say I think its going to be slightly warmer than average with close to average rainfall overall.

Since you have a perfect record of entries over many years, I will at least track your potential score in the EWP contest and let you know the rest of the way where your score would fit in, with a four-day late penalty on the 1991-2020 average value as a prediction. Note this score won't be official in the contest. As for the CET portion, missing a month won't hurt as much because there are components there of average error and average score which don't apply in the EWP contest where your score is simply the sum of all efforts. A four day penalty on a good forecast is still better than any regular player's current average. 

[East Lancs Rain]

On 05/07/2021 at 22:51, damianslaw said:

Yes I haven't kept an eye on minima but under the cloud and rain it has held well. A value indicative of the wet moist south westerly airstream that gives high CET means in winter with little dirunal range despite temps just above average, minima pulls the values up but it doesn't feel mild.

Mind maxima this July here has been average at best, today a bit below. We can have very high maxima cancelled out by cool minima in the summer, yet it feels much warmer overall. CET mean values mean little really in this respect, a couple of hours of a minima 5 degrees with a high of 26 degrees would return a value of only 15.5 degrees compared to a day of maxima at 21 degrees and minima at 14 degrees which returns a 17.5 degrees. The day with maxima of 26 degrees will feel far much warmer overall and leave a much more lasting impression.. most of the day staying very warm only in the depth of the night, around 3pm does it drop to 5 degrees.

The CET mean can and often does mask the realities of the day..and month.

 

Very true. Though anyone up early enough would get a nasty shock with that 5C minima in mid summer!

[Dancerwithwings]

Wow 0.6c drop since Sunday/Monday   

The question is, will the second half of July warm up

Edited July 7, 2021 by Dancerwithwings

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

58 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Wow 0.6c drop since Sunday/Monday   

The question is, will the second half of July warm up

Would prefer to see these drops in the winter months  

[Dancerwithwings]

29 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Would prefer to see these drops in the winter months  

FACT

[Stargazer]

Definitely a noticeable north-south split at the moment. Here in Reading our nearest official station, at the university, is showing 17.0, exactly on average for early July, with suppressed maxima and warm nights. But then it's been pretty cloudy here.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16.6C +1.5C above normal. Rainfall 45.6mm 71.4% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

17.0c to the 7th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.5c on the 3rd & 4th
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

[Roger J Smith]

EWP has had a rather wet start with about 40 mm so far (37 mm to 6th), looks to add around 20 mm in the next ten days with the east coast shown as quite wet but most other regions around 10 mm. The current 11-16 day output is relatively dry so if all that verifies we won't be much past 60 mm by the 24th. However would say considerable uncertainty attached to that in general. 

I don't see a lot of movement in the CET from this latest guidance, it should stay close to where it is now most of the time. 

[The PIT]

On 07/07/2021 at 18:19, Dancerwithwings said:

Wow 0.6c drop since Sunday/Monday   

The question is, will the second half of July warm up

You always get bit swings early in the month you haven't much data to play with which is the reason. If it's at the end of the month then wow as it's much harder to achieve.

[East Lancs Rain]

7 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP has had a rather wet start with about 40 mm so far (37 mm to 6th), looks to add around 20 mm in the next ten days with the east coast shown as quite wet but most other regions around 10 mm. The current 11-16 day output is relatively dry so if all that verifies we won't be much past 60 mm by the 24th. However would say considerable uncertainty attached to that in general. 

I don't see a lot of movement in the CET from this latest guidance, it should stay close to where it is now most of the time. 

Has it been really hot where you are? (Just noticed your location, heard all about the extreme record breaking heatwave in Canada and the Pacific NorthWest).

[Roger J Smith]

You bet it has been hot, check my report over in the North American weather forum elsewhere on NW. (three weeks of 35 C to 44 C highs)

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back up 16.8C +1.6C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

17.0c to the 8th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.5c on the 3rd & 4th
Current low this month 16.7c on the 1st

[East Lancs Rain]

CET still holding up nicely despite recent poor weather in the south.