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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    58 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

    Nice TCU/CB developed North of London

    20210719_204102.thumb.jpg.b5eff1b57d18f4dc29387fce25cc661e.jpg

    I can always tell what mode you're shooting in! 😄

    200MP coming in January. 🤐

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    3 hours ago, Atmogenic said:

    sorry guys it took a while, was having all sorts of issues with merging, converting, quality and errors. I'm sorry the quality isn't the best but it's better than it was by a long shot, maybe it will improve later on as that seems to be the case after a video has been uploaded for some time. also the convection part is around 2:22 I believe. There is also 2 clips at the start that u might notice if u watch it all the way through that seem very similar, that's because of the issue i had earlier on with the clip i uploaded being a pic rather then a video, so i did another but before I did it again Alr1970 told me to do it on youtube so I left the second clip in with the first.

     

     

    Wow, just amazing beautiful footage of these fantastic clouds Atmogenic. Whenever these clouds are in the sky I just cannot stop looking at them. Their structure and size. Quality looks fine to me, however not an expert at these things. The most I have done is use the phone to video.

    2 hours ago, Smokeone said:

    Used my 4k camcorder today looking towards the east from Fareham, it was great to watch. Hopefully get some more video this week. Maybe try 4K next time. Still working out how to use it, I'm much better at Photography with my cameras.

     

    Again amazing footage Smokeone of these monster clouds. Timelapse really shows their dynamics. Lets hope we see some more tomorrow...

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    Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK
    45 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    I can always tell what mode you're shooting in! 😄

    200MP coming in January. 🤐

    March usually is the upgrade 👌 haha

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    It's looking good here tomorrow! I will make sure my camera is ready. 👊

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    East mids looks juicy for storms tomorrow!!temp forecast is 29 degrees so if any thunderstorms do develop it will feel seriously tropical!

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    Posted
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
  • Weather Preferences: Love heat & thunderstorms, but despise Winter
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
    1 hour ago, minus10 said:

    Wow, just amazing beautiful footage of these fantastic clouds Atmogenic. Whenever these clouds are in the sky I just cannot stop looking at them. Their structure and size. Quality looks fine to me, however not an expert at these things. The most I have done is use the phone to video.

    Thank you very much, it was an exciting day I wasn't even expecting any storms here, it just came out of the blue as at first I was just sitting out on my lounger and then some time after I kept hearing this rumbling noise which at first I just thought it was just some builders in the distance, but this rumbling became quite frequent and had this same tone if u know what I mean that sounded more like thunder. So I went out the front and saw blue skies so I was confused. So i went to the park and that's when I saw those beasts of a cloud as u can see in the photos I took and knowing anyone here, you immediately need to get to a great viewing area which thankfully is close by to me to get these great views 😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
    25 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    It's looking good here tomorrow! I will make sure my camera is ready. 👊

    Definitely! Looks like it's going to be my first available chase day of the season😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Good luck tomorrow guys but for me sadly i will be stuck in a sweltering warehouse on the afternoon shift😳

    there has been some great pics/clips in here today,...keep up the good work guys and hopefully some more opportunities  in the next few days,i am free this weekend if any storms kick off,...i will be on the chase.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Could well be quite an interesting day today. I’ve been flat out working lately, but will be keeping a close watch out today, when I get time. It is a very unique kind of setup today with the upper steering flow from the NW, with a variable, but predominantly SE flow at the surface. Could result in some strong backbuilding such as yesterday over Sussex. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
    6 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

    Definitely! Looks like it's going to be my first available chase day of the season😁

    Hi Ben

    Blimey, are you storm chasing all the way over to eastern England as reports and forecasts on this thread suggest that’s where the action will be . Eastern greatest chance and Northern England. 
    haven’t seen anything on here saying Bristol or western England. I guess you never know with storms and it has Gen know in the past for storms to pop up out the blue when not even forecast here such was the case yesterday over southeast as that came out of nowhere. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    What do you think of bringing my Camera to school with a couple of extra betteries, so I don't miss it when it got closest to me like yesterday. 

    Edited by Eagle Eye
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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Already seeing lines of AcCas heading SE. A very unusual direction for them to be heading. Usually always NNE with the traditional Spanish plume! 

     

    0BECD4D1-5769-44E5-A418-99B11AC4A41B.jpeg

    Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    9 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    What do you think of bringing my Cameea to school with a couple of extra betteries, so I don't miss it when it got closest to me like yesterday

    Never mind I've forgotten it 🤣

    Edited by Eagle Eye
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    13 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Never mind I've forgotten it 🤣

    So that explains the sudden lepse in to Efrikaans?😁

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
    29 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Never mind I've forgotten it 🤣

    You forgot your kemera? Oh noes!

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

    Very similar to yesterday with local heating and low level wind convergence zones.

    nmmukwind15.thumb.png.99beb4e44a139b6299b57d9a26adb7bc.pngnmmuk3hrprecip15.thumb.png.b696dd9c71880f0f408936836bae686b.png

    I say the same as yesterday but late afternoon early evening there may be a different storm opportunity. I did think maybe it was driven by upper level vorticity but looking at the forecast skewTs it may be driven by a bit more moisture at the 700 -800 hpa level.

    nmmuk3hrprecip21.thumb.png.4240280d674639f0c28c97a8bf36059f.png

    These may not be surface based storms by 9pm.

    sound-London-12.thumb.png.77a90c46e701d97e6ae2538498a440dc.pngsound-London-18.thumb.png.112a2fc9dda2830cc89c8557164940e1.png

    Looking at overnight soundings suggests that 700-800 hpa moisture is prevalent across the UK apart from the Cambourne sounding in the South West.

    Comparing the EUMETSAT satellite images and forecast upper level vorticity raises some questions about upper level dynamics as well.

    gfs_pvort_eur6.thumb.png.1af3df6c60a0345e4d61ffd535f865ba.pngSatellite06.thumb.png.bd8a4de315d3c4c5d4267be61e715ba0.png

     

    Best guess we have some London and South East storms during the afternoon and the early evening storms for East Anglia with a chance those early evening storms might be a little more widespread.

     

    t

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
    43 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    Already seeing lines of AcCas heading SE. A very unusual direction for them to be heading. Usually always NNE with the traditional Spanish plume! 

     

    0BECD4D1-5769-44E5-A418-99B11AC4A41B.jpeg

    Like yesterday the day has started crystal clear here. By 09:45 yesterday the sky was filled with AcCas and was then full of convection through the day, initiating into those gorgeous explosive storms about 10-15 miles to my SE. 
     

    Could be a fairly broad area in play today and if the conditions are similar to yesterday (which they appear to be) convection could be explosive. The storms that blew up near Tonbridge yesterday turned electric in 10-15 minutes of initation. AROME and Euro4 have similar direction of travel as yesterday - general NW to SE so I’m a bit more hopeful today. Weather app is up at 90% which you don’t often see, even with plumes. Will hopefully be an exciting one, even if I only see some awesome cloudscapes 👍
     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
    8 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Just updated for tomorrow,...Ooooh!!!

    Day 2 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 20 Jul 2021 - 05:59 UTC Wed 21 Jul 2021

    ISSUED 22:13 UTC Mon 19 Jul 2021

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Upper ridge continues to cover Ireland and southern/western Britain on Tuesday, but with a more pronounced upper trough sliding slowly southeastwards over eastern England and the North Sea through the day. This will aid both cooling of the mid/upper levels (therefore increasing instability) and promote broad lift across the area - and as such the environment will be more conducive to more numerous thunderstorms than was the case on Monday. That said, profiles are still quite dry with hints of some subtle warm noses that could inhibit deep convection, at least initially, but overall this may help to keep cells spaced apart somewhat (although inevitably some backbuilding/daughter cells generated by outflow may fill these gaps with time). 

    Strong heating of a moist low-level airmass (dewpoints of 17-19C with 2m temperatures likely to peak around 28-32C) will yield substantial CAPE, in the range 900-1,500 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest surface temperatures of 27-28C will be required for convective initiation, and while convective cloud may take several attempts to gain some height in a broad sense, rapid upward motion is likely where forced ascent from the surface occurs (convergence zones and upslope flow over the Downs/Chilterns etc). Therefore it is these zones that will provide the primary focus for sustained and explosive development, probably not until around 1pm BST at the earliest but continuing through the afternoon and early evening hours. The areas at greatest risk will typically be closest to the upper trough where instability will be maximised, capping less of an issue and better forced ascent - hence the SLGT issued. While undisturbed convergence zones may look rather neat/obvious initially, outflow/cold pools and storm interactions will create a rather distorted surface pattern through the afternoon which will naturally make it difficult to predict where new cells could develop at these longer lead times. Nonetheless, it seems plausible multiple thunderstorms could develop in the East Midlands, East Anglia and parts of SE England through the afternoon and early evening, some evolving into clusters, before eventually weakening. 

     

    Around the southwestern flank of the upper trough, slightly stronger west/northwesterly flow will be present across the East Midlands and East Anglia, which coupled with weak and locally backed surface winds (potential for rotating updrafts) will result in 20-30kts DLS, and this may aid storm longevity at times. The rapid upward motion aiding vorticity stretching along convergence zones could allow a couple of funnel clouds / weak tornadoes, although for the most part the deeply-mixed boundary layer will result in fairly high cloud bases - but these may tend to lower towards evening. The primary hazards will be local flash flooding but also large hail, potentially 2-3cm in diameter in the strongest cells - and as such a SVR has been introduced. Quite gusty winds could also occur given the well-mixed, deep sub-cloud layer.

     

    Other isolated heavy showers / thunderstorms will be possible, such as over the hills/mountains of the Pennines and southern Scotland, and central/northern portions of Ireland.

    largethumb.thumb.png.ce960feef1d62a63074aa5cb4c9b81a2.png

    WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

    Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

     

    You had me at 'Chilterns '

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    Posted
  • Location: hinckley, Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: stormy please.
  • Location: hinckley, Leicestershire

     

    http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2021-07-20

    Day 1 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 20 Jul 2021 - 05:59 UTC Wed 21 Jul 2021

    ISSUED 06:22 UTC Tue 20 Jul 2021

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Upper ridge continues to cover Ireland and southern/western Britain on Tuesday, but with a more pronounced upper trough sliding slowly southeastwards over eastern England and the North Sea through the day. This will aid both cooling of the mid/upper levels (therefore increasing instability) and promote broad lift across the area - and as such the environment will be more conducive to more numerous thunderstorms than was the case on Monday. That said, profiles are still quite dry with hints of some subtle warm noses that could inhibit deep convection, at least initially, but overall this may help to keep cells spaced apart somewhat (although inevitably some backbuilding/daughter cells generated by outflow may fill these gaps with time). 

    Strong heating of a moist low-level airmass (dewpoints of 17-19C with 2m temperatures likely to peak around 28-31C) will yield substantial CAPE, in the range 900-1,500 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest surface temperatures of 27-28C will be required for convective initiation, and while convective cloud may take several attempts to gain some height in a broad sense, rapid upward motion is likely where forced ascent from the surface occurs (convergence zones and upslope flow over the Downs/Chilterns etc). Therefore it is these zones that will provide the primary focus for sustained and explosive development, probably not until around 12-1pm BST but continuing through the afternoon and early evening hours. The areas at greatest risk will typically be closest to the upper trough where instability will be maximised, capping less of an issue and better forced ascent - hence the SLGT issued. While undisturbed convergence zones may look rather neat/obvious initially, outflow/cold pools and storm interactions will create a rather distorted surface pattern through the afternoon which will naturally make it difficult to predict where new cells could develop at these longer lead times. Nonetheless, it seems plausible multiple thunderstorms could develop in the East Midlands, East Anglia and parts of SE England through the afternoon and early evening, some evolving into clusters, before eventually weakening. 

     

    Around the southwestern flank of the upper trough, slightly stronger west/northwesterly flow will be present across the East Midlands and East Anglia, which coupled with weak and locally backed surface winds (potential for rotating updrafts) will result in 20-30kts DLS, and this may aid storm longevity at times. The rapid upward motion aiding vorticity stretching along convergence zones could allow a couple of funnel clouds / weak tornadoes, although for the most part the deeply-mixed boundary layer will result in fairly high cloud bases - but these may tend to lower towards evening. The primary hazards will be local flash flooding but also frequent lightning and large hail, potentially 2-3cm in diameter in the strongest cells - and as such a SVR has been introduced. Wind gusts in excess of 50mph could also occur given the well-mixed, deep sub-cloud layer.

     

    Other isolated heavy showers / thunderstorms will be possible, such as over the hills/mountains of the Pennines, southern Scotland and Wales, and central/northern portions of Ireland - but the risk of lightning is lower given issues with either restricted cloud depth or too much dry/subsided air aloft. NW Ireland is probably the most likely area to see a few sporadic lightning strikes, but low confidence precludes the introduction of a SLGT.

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    10 minutes ago, Harry said:

    Like yesterday the day has started crystal clear here. By 09:45 yesterday the sky was filled with AcCas and was then full of convection through the day, initiating into those gorgeous explosive storms about 10-15 miles to my SE. 
     

    Could be a fairly broad area in play today and if the conditions are similar to yesterday (which they appear to be) convection could be explosive. The storms that blew up near Tonbridge yesterday turned electric in 10-15 minutes of initation. AROME and Euro4 have similar direction of travel as yesterday - general NW to SE so I’m a bit more hopeful today. Weather app is up at 90% which you don’t often see, even with plumes. Will hopefully be an exciting one, even if I only see some awesome cloudscapes 👍
     

     

    Yep, yesterday was a fascinating day, couldn’t believe the rate that storm down in the SE back built all the way from the Hastings area to Burgess Hill/Brighton! 

    As mentioned though, there may be a bit more of a lifting mechanism and favourable conditions in the late afternoon with that upper trough grazing by, so some evening anvil lightning could be visible for many, if they get going in the E Anglia Area. Always a spectacular sight. That one off the Norfolk coast last August was a truly beautiful and captivating sight to behold for hours on end! 

    Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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    • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-09-19 10:28:59 Valid: 19/09/2021 1200 - 20/09/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SUN 19TH SEPT 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
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      Atlantic systems facing a fight as they try to move in across the UK

      Atlantic systems continue to be partially 'blocked' as they approach, slowing down or grinding to a halt as they try to cross the country - with one such trough overhead today, and another not too far behind. Read the full update here

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      Mixed bag this weekend, some sun and some rain

      Dry with sunny spells for many on Saturday, though a band of showery rain for parts of the north and west. Heavy rain moving into eastern areas on Sunday, turning brighter in the west. Fine first half of next week, unsettled second half. Read the full update here

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