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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight

    Casting eyes to the end of the week, today's GEM runs have had the best outcome in my opinion, as they bring the storms into the South after dark. Daytime storms are next to useless for a lightning photographer who also works during the day. 

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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

    This one is still trying it's best to cauliflower upwards...

    Probably the Peterborough one

    20210718_193024.jpg

    Screenshot_20210718-192940_Chrome.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Convective Weather and Snow
  • Location: NW London

    It's a bit  frustrating  all this CAPE sitting around being pretty unused! There is so much dry air around, and pressure is quite high of course
    image.thumb.png.4148d7ea81eb039e3bd92d9f72f85ed3.pngimage.thumb.png.224b9421d0f5b922908f58762d4592a3.png
    Hopefully we get something interesting towards the end of the week. 
    Also the 12z GFS looked really great towards the end of July, hopefully we can continue the end of July warmth/thunderstorm streak 

    image.pngimage.thumb.png.f928c5d7107d53c5e483ba9d1da5f161.pngimage.thumb.png.c5815d68b689d0b415986eb287d5e43b.png

    Edited by Thunder and Lightning
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    53 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

    It's a bit  frustrating  all this CAPE sitting around being pretty unused! There is so much dry air around, and pressure is quite high of course
    image.thumb.png.4148d7ea81eb039e3bd92d9f72f85ed3.pngimage.thumb.png.224b9421d0f5b922908f58762d4592a3.png
    Hopefully we get something interesting towards the end of the week. 
    Also the 12z GFS looked really great towards the end of July, hopefully we can continue the end of July warmth/thunderstorm streak 

    image.pngimage.thumb.png.f928c5d7107d53c5e483ba9d1da5f161.pngimage.thumb.png.c5815d68b689d0b415986eb287d5e43b.png

    Boring always goes east

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    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight

    ECM's and GEM's takes on Friday night. Looking promising. ICON almost in range but looking similar up 'til midday Fri on the latest run.

    Screenshot_20210718-212701.png

    Screenshot_20210718-212728.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    Definitely something trying to develop pretty much over my head, probably not amount to anything but it’s trying nevertheless 

    1830E490-D89B-4B39-9B48-E4DC481EF6C8.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
    4 minutes ago, Lance M said:

    ECM's and GEM's takes on Friday night. Looking promising. ICON almost in range but looking similar up 'til midday Fri on the latest run.

    Screenshot_20210718-212701.png

    Screenshot_20210718-212728.png

    it'll change 

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    Posted
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol

    ESTOFEX forecast includes England tomorrow:

     

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Lighting and sunshine
  • Location: London

    An estofex and a day 2 for tomorrow.  I'm not feeling it, not even for rain but I like a surprise

    WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

    Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

    Day 2 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 19 Jul 2021 - 05:59 UTC Tue 20 Jul 2021

    ISSUED 20:46 UTC Sun 18 Jul 2021

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Upper ridging generally dominates through Monday, however an upper trough will slide down the North Sea, the western edge passing close to East Anglia and SE England during the morning. The phasing of this feature is faster than peak daytime heating, but the associated cooling aloft may provide a slightly more favourable thermodynamic profile than was the case on Sunday. In either case, diurnal heating will yield substantial SBCAPE (>1,000 J/kg), however forecast profiles are rather dry once again with evidence of some warm noses, and this casts uncertainty as to how tall convective cloud may be able to grow. Initiation will likely be strongly tied to low-level convergence and orographic forcing. A deeply-mixed boundary layer will result in fairly high cloud bases, but if convection is able to grow tall enough it may be able to utilise slightly stronger northwesterly flow aloft.

    For the most part, any showers that do develop will probably struggle to maintain themselves for any length of time - with the exception of SE England where the environment overall appears slightly more favourable for deeper convection and therefore potential for a few lightning strikes. Given the timing of the upper trough passage, this may be more of an afternoon event than an evening one. If a couple of heavy showers or thunderstorms develop, local flash flooding could be a concern. A SLGT may be introduced if confidence increases. Showers may continue to develop over the Midlands towards the northern Home Counties during the overnight period.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rushden. Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Rushden. Northamptonshire
    7 hours ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

    An estofex and a day 2 for tomorrow.  I'm not feeling it, not even for rain but I like a surprise

    WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

    Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

    Day 2 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 19 Jul 2021 - 05:59 UTC Tue 20 Jul 2021

    ISSUED 20:46 UTC Sun 18 Jul 2021

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Upper ridging generally dominates through Monday, however an upper trough will slide down the North Sea, the western edge passing close to East Anglia and SE England during the morning. The phasing of this feature is faster than peak daytime heating, but the associated cooling aloft may provide a slightly more favourable thermodynamic profile than was the case on Sunday. In either case, diurnal heating will yield substantial SBCAPE (>1,000 J/kg), however forecast profiles are rather dry once again with evidence of some warm noses, and this casts uncertainty as to how tall convective cloud may be able to grow. Initiation will likely be strongly tied to low-level convergence and orographic forcing. A deeply-mixed boundary layer will result in fairly high cloud bases, but if convection is able to grow tall enough it may be able to utilise slightly stronger northwesterly flow aloft.

    For the most part, any showers that do develop will probably struggle to maintain themselves for any length of time - with the exception of SE England where the environment overall appears slightly more favourable for deeper convection and therefore potential for a few lightning strikes. Given the timing of the upper trough passage, this may be more of an afternoon event than an evening one. If a couple of heavy showers or thunderstorms develop, local flash flooding could be a concern. A SLGT may be introduced if confidence increases. Showers may continue to develop over the Midlands towards the northern Home Counties during the overnight period.

    Already seeing some of this light convection from the get go this morning, I think all week we will have this ever so slight possibility of the odd later afternoon storm, but its only very slight i'd say.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

    Same as Yesterday except it is a little less dry aloft.

    nmmukwind.thumb.png.abaf2f62ebdc4501b9a776b97f476eb5.pngnmmuk3hrprecip.thumb.png.0809e96fc800cb27e922e02d6fcbde76.png

    Models seem to suggest south east corner of the UK might get a storm and fax chart hints at a surface low. Forecast SkewTs suggest instability is available and seem a bit wetter aloft that yesterday.

    sound-London-18.thumb.png.c8c3801a8ac6568cb9eccea64949011e.pngsound-WestMidlands-18.thumb.png.9c06b169db28ea82a6346cba8f647afe.png

    Possibility of an upper air disturbance crossing the UK as well. 

    615312872_Tropopauseheight.thumb.png.44efa39584298f054adda6666db8af0f.png

    Does not seem to overlap with low level convergence but will be interesting to see how things play out.

    Think it is likely to be similar to yesterday with a few more mid level clouds. Nottingham sounding from overnight is consistent with forecast SkewT's except the warm nose at 500 hpa is marginally still there.  In the channel south of the the south west looks like a few showers could develop from Satellite images.

    satellite.thumb.png.eec737bd11cf1539ffadde0c37b2cfb5.png

    As yesterday not convinced storms will develop and looks like the south east is likely location if they do.

    Looking further out to the end of the week sees a Rossby wave push towards northern France and as it comes in it should create air divergence aloft at the jetstreak exit which may create conditions for thunderstorms. The models do keep changing on this with one run keeping things south and into France only and the next moving the wave eastwards too fast for it to really come into play for the UK.

    340003551_hgt300(1).thumb.png.81c18631c5376d498d99855337b30651.png20210718_2035.PPVO89.thumb.png.3d36fae3027c3e46e734aa357b9460e1.png

    Too far put to put any detail on later in the week at the moment. For today I am watching the showers in the channel to see if they develop.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

    I wasn’t expecting to see signs of this much mid level instability. Perhaps there’s a slightly higher risk of a storm today than I’d been expecting.

    A3A7C795-7127-498D-9D57-A5BC3E79DF6C.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
    18 minutes ago, Harry said:

    I wasn’t expecting to see signs of this much mid level instability. Perhaps there’s a slightly higher risk of a storm today than I’d been expecting.

    A3A7C795-7127-498D-9D57-A5BC3E79DF6C.jpeg

    Just to elaborate reason for evidence of mid-level instability is that the low levels are quite dry and well-mixed therefore relatively stable. This results in the LCL (Lifting Condensation Level) being at an elevated base, though not to the elevation of elevated thunderstorms. Judging by the GFS Skew-T storms if they develop, will build from around 800hPa ~ 2000m.

    Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    50 minutes ago, Harry said:

    I wasn’t expecting to see signs of this much mid level instability. Perhaps there’s a slightly higher risk of a storm today than I’d been expecting.

    A3A7C795-7127-498D-9D57-A5BC3E79DF6C.jpeg

    very much looking like this in Brum too at the moment 

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Very frustrating seeing that potential low for later on this week ebbing away as each run progresses. I cannot believe how much bad luck we are having with plumes this year! I can see this one yet again delivering a nagging NNE wind and scuppering any potential, keeping it once again on the continent. If I had an option to fast forward this year, I would snap someone’s hand off! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    I’m on Bmth beach currently, can see some pretty pokey Cu development probably 40-50miles east of here! 

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    Posted
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
  • Weather Preferences: Wake me up when the storms arrive
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate

    I doubt we'll be lucky in the SE, but there is some London-generated instability visible from our house. (Looking north.)

    Cloud.jpg

    Edited by StormLoser
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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    Got some nice clouds here now, could get interesting later. 

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Lighting and sunshine
  • Location: London

    I've noticed today that the convective clouds are leaning to one side. My picture doesn't show it well, but is it in any way advantageous for them to lean?

     

    IMG_20210719_120832.jpg

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