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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight

    Radar coming to life southwest of the Channel Islands. Good chance of some late evening lightning east of the small rock I occupy.

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    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight

    Can't believe this! It's not even a plume! Frantically getting some charge in my camera batteries while also making a roast dinner!

    Capture.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL

    Some Amazing looking Asperitas clouds over me atm. 😄

    742146005_IMG_20210711_1736505771.thumb.jpg.14f7068b421f2be85f08a95b34d71560.jpg 1080329974_IMG_20210711_1736104011.thumb.jpg.faa7c493ece2df4dd2a4c430eae1981f.jpg

     

    (My crappy cam just doesn't do it justice 😞 )

    Edited by Ryukai
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    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight

    Well that was fun while it lasted! Worth keeping an eye on the situation as the evening progresses, based on Dan's updated forecast.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

    Thunder rumbling in channel just off Sussex

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Rainfall is absolutely nuts here!

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

    Mixed storm opportunities today with maybe Northern Ireland as a key area. Instability is low with cloud cover tending to limit convection and upper level lapse rates look poorer than forecast yesterday. Mixture of low level wind convergence, upper level dry slot swinging up from the South East around across the Midlands later. Steerage winds are interesting at mid levels going from Kent up to Manchester and then back down to Exeter.

    lightningwizard15.thumb.png.e72984999c7411fa526710d61d38fc42.png

    sound-WestMidlands-18.thumb.png.c7ed0b793386f76aa069f7724ef9aef7.png

    Generally the air is moist all the way up and there is plenty of cloud cover, so storm severity is likely to be low unless things diverge from forecast.  Embedded storms along the south coast, East Anglia, Pennine convergence, maybe Midlands and Wales where instability highest giving a real mix of places to watch. Wales and Ireland most likely places.

    sr15nmmukwind.thumb.png.ede42b7df26300902f29420e6612b735.pngsr15nmmuk3hrprecip.thumb.png.5ec71679029f000c09b22cb648e28303.png

    sr18nmmukwind.thumb.png.02a1afea87df0ee1a85b9b4fe17c2818.pngsr18nmmuk3hrprecip.thumb.png.f26d097bc0ed1aef1a4971ea0345ab6e.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    The warning hasn't even started yet and I've recorded over 70mm of rain.

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Lighting and sunshine
  • Location: London
    34 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    The warning hasn't even started yet and I've recorded over 70mm of rain.

    Take pwat!

    IMG_20210712_091419.png

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    There's another torro forecast today, basically keep an eye out for funnels if you anywhere near any ppn again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Upchurch, Kent
  • Location: Upchurch, Kent
    14 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

    There's another torro forecast today, basically keep an eye out for funnels if you anywhere near any ppn again.

    I'll have my eyes glued to the sky as I work outside! Saw my first funnel the other day and it was amazing. Almost right overhead! I would love to go chasing in the States if I ever got the chance!

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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

    The light overnight rain stopped bang on 10am, now we have a lovely easterly breeze and have lost all the humidity prevalent for the last week or so. Sky now clearing nicely near to Wellingborough on the gorgeous river Nene.

    20210712_111053.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
  • Weather Preferences: Wake me up when the storms arrive
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate

    Morning all!

    Flagging my abilities as being idiot-level, I still confess I'm rather sceptical of the MO's Yellow Warning today. For a start off the low centre seems to be way further north than they predicted and it seems very slack. I guess surface forcing will be a big factor.

    Of course, being inside a half-hearted low means we currently get grey skies and only a wee bit of sun here. Further, a lot of the activity remains around the perimeter which favours folks north of London and south-west UK much more than the Yellow forecasts.

    However, if that trough over France gets enough energy to limp this way things could get interesting.  Happy hunting everyone.

    PS - thanks for mentioning TORRO, Alexisj9. I long gave up on them thinking they'd closed down! I just looked in on them and glad to see they are still going. Interesting forecast from them. Back on my bookmarks they go...

    Edited by StormLoser
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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    Suns out here now. Upper cloud looks interesting, and below that lot's of fair weather cumulus which is I think a red herring. The instability here looks mid level 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
    51 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

    Suns out here now. Upper cloud looks interesting, and below that lot's of fair weather cumulus which is I think a red herring. The instability here looks mid level 

    Still quite a bit of cloud here sadly 😢 by no means does that completely rule out chances but would be better if it could break up some more to build up some insolation 😊👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

    Spoke far too soon - cloud literally breaking up now and having just popped outside, it’s heating up quickly (and notably humid)

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Doesnt seem any chance of cloud breaking here, not too excited yet. 

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    Posted
  • Location: West London
  • Location: West London
    1 minute ago, Harry said:

    Spoke far too soon - cloud literally breaking up now and having just popped outside, it’s heating up quickly (and notably humid)

    very humid my bedroom was at 77% until I opened a few more windows for it to only only increase which defeated the objective.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    THUNDERSTORM WATCH - MON 12TH JULY 2021

    stormmap_120721.thumb.png.9558cdba38b97631751ac74c80d51690.png

    Issued 2021-07-12 09:28:04
    Valid: 12/07/2021 0600 - 13/07/2021

    Forecast Details

    Centre of upper low over northern Bay of Biscay Monday morning will drift east across northern France through the day, with associated upper trough axis pushing N across southern England. A slack surface flow pattern will prevail across much of the UK, generally pressure will be lower towards southern Britain.

    A messy synoptic pattern this morning, a few occluded fronts, troughs and convergence zones that have moved N overnight continue to bring outbreaks of rain across parts of England & Wales this morning. Fronts and associated rain will generally weaken while breeze convergence zones and trough pushing N into S England will become the dominant driver to support heavy convective and perhaps thundery downpours across parts of the UK today.

    Convergence zones appear likely to across S England, S Wales, N-S across NW England & western Scotland and N-S across the island of Ireland.

    There is some uncertainty over the extent of convective potential across S England due to how much extensive morning cloud cover from overnight rain will break. Further heavy rain with isolated lightning may cross the English Channel this morning to complicate things, but where sunny spells develop long enough – surface heating of rather moist airmass beneath cool mid-levels of upper trough may yield 500-1000 j/kg CAPE,  convergence of surface breezes and large scale ascent from upper trough expected over southern counties will thus support the development of slow-moving heavy downpours and thunderstorms from late morning and through the afternoon into the evening. Exact positioning of the convergence zones a little uncertain, but E-W or eventually NE-SW across parts of central S and SE England. Locally intense downpours training along the convergence zones may lead to 20-30mm falling in an hour, leading to flash-flooding. Hail may also accompany stronger storms. While a few funnel clouds are possible, perhaps even a brief/weak tornado with stronger updrafts over convergence zones.

    Further north, the convergence zones mentioned above and the greater probability of sunny spells will likely lead to heavy showers and thunderstorms developing – particularly NW England, western Scotland, Rep of Ireland and N. Ireland. Again, showers/storms will be slow-moving, so some localised flooding possible. A few funnel clouds also possible, while a brief/weak tornado can’t be ruled out.

    Heavy showers with isolated can't be ruled out elsewhere across the British Isles away from these areas of convergence.

    Issued by: Nick Finnis

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Doesnt seem any chance of cloud breaking here, not too excited yet. 

    Cloud slowly breaking but still hours away from anything I reckon it could still break by the end of the hour, it hasn't been a great month for anything so far, now's the time to change that. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Keep an eye out just across the channel in northern France just S/SW of Calais👀

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    It feels quite ripe here. 18.7°C and a dew point of 16.7°C. Some brightness too.

    I'm not sure we need anymore rain after this morning, But, from a statistical point of a view, I wouldn't mind hitting 100mm for a 24 hour period. 😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, not too cold
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
    8 hours ago, Mapantz said:

    Rainfall is absolutely nuts here!

    Had a few heavy showers last night here as well.

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales

    incredibly thundery looking here in SE Wales, ~ yes there are some torrential showers 50-70 miles west of here but not a drop of rain here. I wonder if something is building up ? 

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