Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

[StormLoser]

I'm trying to forecast for Reigate tomorrow as we have someone coming over. 

I can't get a handle on it because I'm not happy with the pressure slope to the south and east. I think it is 'under-represented' on current forecasts. I'm currently thinking the more active areas will be north of London and we will get an occasional light shower.

The passing occluding fronts are more likely to offer cloud down here.

 

Edited July 2, 2021 by StormLoser

[Supacell]

Storms were forecast today, albeit a low risk. The area most at risk being where we see them now, to the east of the north Pennines. Although one could crop up anywhere.

A much bigger chance tomorrow of widespread thunderstorms. Very hard to pick out where and so even though my car is filled with petrol and my camera ready, I have no set plan yet. Maybe stay put and see what happens. Storms will be fairly slow moving and so probably not too difficult to chase. I say that with fingers crossed. Storms could last well into the evening too.

[toggerob]

It'll be my first 'official' storm-chase tomorrow since passing the driving test, i'm thinking of parking up somewhere around the Ashbourne area to watch & wait as there'll be 4 road directions I can subsequently move to from there, a consistent cell feature i'm seeing on the SR-model passes between Ashbourne and Derby at around 3pm which is the one i'll be aiming for if the model prediction is correct.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

19 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

It'll be my first 'official' storm-chase tomorrow since passing the driving test, i'm thinking of parking up somewhere around the Ashbourne area to watch & wait as there'll be 4 road directions I can subsequently move to from there, a consistent cell feature i'm seeing on the SR-model passes between Ashbourne and Derby at around 3pm which is the one i'll be aiming for if the model prediction is correct.

You’ll love it!

The sounds of the open road ... the smell of the thunder ... the scare of the lightning!

Take care in the traffic though, I find it’s so easy to get distracted trying to follow a storm while navigating through towns or over big junctions . Especially awkward when you have to change direction at the last minute.

Top things to remember:

• bottle(s) of water

• somewhere to wee

• find spots off main roads so you can get the full experience without traffic white-noise ruining the fun

[Delka]

what time do we expect storms to kick off tomorrow? 

[Allseasons-Si]

What's that brewing in the channel heading for the SE!

Edited July 2, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

What's that brewing in the channel heading for the SE!

Reminded me to have a look, nothing seen as of yet. 

[Met4Cast]

Tomorrow certainly of interest!

Potential for the most widespread thunderstorm risk of the season so far, convergence running from SW England up through the Midlands towards the Wash, showers likely developing along that line, big flood potential across the SW in particular. 

Surface heating will allow widespread pulse-type storms to develop, one or two perhaps upscaling to MCS if they can tap into some stronger upper level shear.

And then there’s Sunday..

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

Reminded me to have a look, nothing seen as of yet. 

I did say brewing,it could be nothing or it could turn out to be a developing situation,UKV had shown this on previous runs but not on the latest.

[TJS1998Tom]

Hoping Pickering, North Yorkshire gets something. Would be typical as I go on Holiday if Lincoln got a good storm 

[alexisj9]

33 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

What's that brewing in the channel heading for the SE!

What other than fog?

I can see ac cas above it still at the moment, we'll see.

[Harry]

41 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

What's that brewing in the channel heading for the SE!

EURO4, AROME, WRF-NMM and NetWx show something arriving across the SE in the early hours. But, CAPE is for all intents and purposes non-existent, so following my general and reliable rule, I’m not expecting much in the way of ️

[WeatherWatchmanG]

looking at met office 2am Saturday looks eventful in the SE of England through to 4am then again 12 hours later in the afternoon some localized torrential rain.

[Peachy]

It's going to be a fantastic day tomorrow for most of the UK and I'm so looking forward to it and seeing some fantastic snaps on the forum tomorrow. 

[viking_smb]

18 minutes ago, Peachy said:

It's going to be a fantastic day tomorrow for most of the UK and I'm so looking forward to it and seeing some fantastic snaps on the forum tomorrow. 

I will be watching from the front room as got to do powerboat instructor stuff on the laptop

[offerman]

Hello fellow stormers from SW. 

Nice area heading in to the southeast and an area of rain developing intensity off to the SW in the channel. Hopefully this will all keep developing and everyone who wants them gets storms tomorrow . 
It’s certainly been a storm starved SW for couple years now so here’s hoping.

 Raining here at present and very muggy. 

[Peachy]

20 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

I will be watching from the front room as got to do powerboat instructor stuff on the laptop

I'll be up on the brecon beacons at the crack of dawn waiting for the kick off with my camera. 

Thankfully there are lots of caves nearby I can duck into when the lightning strikes. 

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, Peachy said:

I'll be up on the brecon beacons at the crack of dawn waiting for the kick off with my camera. 

Thankfully there are lots of caves nearby I can duck into when the lightning strikes. 

just be careful up in the beacons ok 

[MP-R]

Typical that the day my area is in the firing line, I’ll be in Cheltenham at a bbq! 

[Mapantz]

Nothing forecast for here & not in the warning zone. 

Work to do outside tomorrow, so hopefully, any stray showers stay clear of here.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

33 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

I will be watching from the front room as got to do powerboat instructor stuff on the laptop

Aren’t laptops portable?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

 Could be some very good storms tomorrow. A lot of models agreeing on a convergence zone over Cornwall and Devon. Looks very similar to what caused the devastating Boscastle event in 2004.. one to keep a close eye on. 

[Robbie Garrett]

Hey, It's Wimbledon. It definitely will thunder...  

[Liam Burge]

I still believe here in Somerset we still have quite a high risk of seeing storms due to a convergence line. Not quite sure why we weren't included in the 50% risk though.

[offerman]

1 hour ago, Liam Burge said:

I still believe here in Somerset we still have quite a high risk of seeing storms due to a convergence line. Not quite sure why we weren't included in the 50% risk though.

Have storms forecast here but nothing on radar even showing as yet