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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Portishead, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Severe
  • Location: Portishead, North Somerset

    N Somerset may be in the firing line, will video anything that gets interesting.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Not expecting much here, apart from a bit of rain..

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    A few sunny spells developing here. Temps  / Dew points responding.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    I'm right in the middle of the warning zone,  and within the black circle. 

    It really doesn't feel like anything other than any other typical day here! I have a feeling it will stay that way too....

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    Posted
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
    11 hours ago, dr weather said:

    N Somerset may be in the firing line, will video anything that gets interesting.

    That would be good if you could. I'm not that far out of the warning zone really so may hear a few rumbles if anything does occur. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)

    image.thumb.png.28c49b6c27aee830d591444adfb1f798.pngimage.thumb.png.1894a1bcbedc5cf0dcbeb2d962335a37.png

    Storms are off for tomorrow then 😅

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    51 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    A few sunny spells developing here. Temps  / Dew points responding.

    Just got fog from the north sea, or light rain and fog when a bit makes it over 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

    Cloudy all morning thus far with odd spot of rain. Much much more humid than yesterday evening.

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    Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
    12 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

    similar to what @staplehurst mentioned, my focus is on SW England for the most intense rainfall, CAPE looks better further east but I'm unsure of storms firing tho wouldn't rule it out. Looks like it will be from that front and also wind convergence Untitled.thumb.png.cb780f31a67214905daeccd3ddbf8fb8.pngnmm_uk1-1-28-1.thumb.png.a8ad94be3897926c2469d1a286621922.pngnmm_uk1-1-29-1.thumb.png.81c071fddaa1925a35b86965d6410e17.pngnmm_uk1-8-27-1.thumb.png.ca2a55d24f8d80fcb3a6fb934646527f.pngnmm_uk1-15-27-1.thumb.png.66305e65585ab07848d1c64fbfdbaf7a.png

     Blimey , is that for real. It’s right bang over where I live for a change . 
     

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    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
    42 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

    image.thumb.png.28c49b6c27aee830d591444adfb1f798.pngimage.thumb.png.1894a1bcbedc5cf0dcbeb2d962335a37.png

    Storms are off for tomorrow then 😅

    If that's for home-grown storms, they may as well have chopped the Isle of Wight out of the warning area altogether!

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    Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
    13 hours ago, staplehurst said:

    Tomorrow exhibits some similarities to 16 August 2020, which produced some extreme rainfall totals in south Norfolk (240mm in 6-8 hours). There is a paper currently being published on the meteorology of this event.

    It seems likely a convergence zone may develop in the afternoon somewhere near or just north of the M4 across to Hertfordshire. North of this boundary, a brisk northeasterly wind will, in theory, allow a continuous supply of 'heated' air from East Anglia (where the best potential for cloud breaks is likely by midday and into the afternoon), and this will result in pooling of warm, moist air along this boundary during the afternoon. In @Paul Sherman speak, "spreads" could be 72F/61F over East Anglia.

    Winds aloft are fairly unidirectional (mostly from the ESE), and would in theory steer any storm cells to the WNW or NW, while inflow winds near ground level will be perpendicular (from the NE) and of similar speed to the storm motion. This will help restrain cold outflow / gust front from advancing too far away from the parent cell, and in theory aid the development of daughter cells in a similar location, such that *somewhere* could get multiple cells training over the same area. Profiles are very moist, with a substantial amount of the cloud below the freezing level, so these could deliver a LOT of rain over a period of a few hours. BUT this is highly dependent on many factors, namely the convergence zone developing in the first place and sufficient surface heating, both of which could be scuppered if there's too much cloud/rain or it advances too quickly northwards.

    We often see in the U.S. how the shape/progress of convergence boundaries can get distorted by rain-cooled air from earlier convection, etc.

    The main difference between this event and last August is the magnitude of instability is lower, and the window of potential shorter - so both will mean rain totals will be lower. Either way, currently keeping an eye on the south Midlands / M4 corridor for the risk of some fairly large rainfall totals (various NWP guidance suggests 50-70mm possible, KNMI Harmonie fancies near 100mm on some runs). Perhaps Bucks / Oxfordshire / Berkshire / N Wiltshire / E Glocs most at risk, but need to keep an eye on trends during Sunday to see if this potential still exists. This of course is not including the more widespread heavy rain that will be affecting other parts of Cen S / SW England.

    Note: I'm not necessarily promising loads of lightning because profiles will be very moist, but scope for some torrential downpours and flash flooding etc.

    With each model run the progress northwards of rain has become slower, and as a result the area at risk is further south. Currently the winds are broadly NE'erly along the south coast, however over the next few hours convergence is expected to develop as coastal sites develop more of SE'ly onshore wind. We've seen some sunshine lifting temperatures to 20-21C, dewpoints are around 15-16C. 

    Therefore, eyes on Dorset and Hampshire into the afternoon where we could see some surface-based developments, the focus then gradually shifting northwestwards through the afternoon. If storms can develop, as mentioned in previous post, scope for 70+mm very locally, these totals probably focussed on Wiltshire (but also perhaps extending into some adjacent counties) where training of multiple cells over the same areas could occur. Very much conditional on enough surface heating and sufficient convergence developing though!

    Edited by staplehurst
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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    20 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

    With each model run the progress northwards of rain has become slower, and as a result the area at risk is further south. Currently the winds are broadly NE'erly along the south coast, however over the next few hours convergence is expected to develop as coastal sites develop more of SE'ly onshore wind. We've seen some sunshine lifting temperatures to 20-21C, dewpoints are around 15-16C. 

    Therefore, eyes on Dorset and Hampshire into the afternoon where we could see some surface-based developments, the focus then gradually shifting northwestwards through the afternoon. If storms can develop, as mentioned in previous post, scope for 70+mm very locally, these totals probably focussed on Wiltshire (but also perhaps extending into some adjacent counties) where training of multiple cells over the same areas could occur. Very much conditional on enough surface heating and sufficient convergence developing though!

    Yep, like I said fog off the north sea, it's feels cold, but also muggy.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Gone pretty dark here. A cell has developed to my South, around Langton Matravers .

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    Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL

    Development currently heading toward Salisbury. 

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    I can't see rain being an issue here today..

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    2 minutes ago, WeatherWatchmanG said:

    South east is getting frekkles lots of random strikes on the map now.

    I'm watching the rain band, it's lightning up in Belgium and France now, wonder what it'll do here.

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Lighting and sunshine
  • Location: London

    I'm going to head c/w on the M25 and towards the m4. Good idea?

    [Edit] I've not left yet, decided to have a dominos

    Edited by Chris Lea-Alex
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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    3 minutes ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

    I'm going to head c/w on the M25 and towards the m4. Good idea?

    No idea. Whole thing looks like it'll be random, on where gets a storm.

    Edited by alexisj9
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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Lighting and sunshine
  • Location: London
    1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

    No idea. Whole foods Hong looks like it'll be random, on where gets a storm.

    It is a bit of a messy setup I'll admit, but I'm gonna roll the dice!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Found another cam in Southampton facing the Isle of Wight just in case.

     

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
    13 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Found another cam in Southampton facing the Isle of Wight just in case.

     

     

    Just for info from a local, that's not the IOW you can see across the water, it's the other side of Southampton Water just north of Hythe, so it'd be a good cam for anything New Forest way 😊

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    Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
    10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Found another cam in Southampton facing the Isle of Wight just in case.

     

     

    I know that cam very well as I mod on the chat there. That’s not facing the IOW. It’s more to the SW, however there are other cams on the channel, one of which Cruise Cam is usually facing more towards the island although there’s a big cruise ship in the way at the moment. Based on its current track it looks like the cell to the SE will pass just to the north of there unless it expands slightly. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    OK thanks guys,..at least it's another cam to add to the mix☺️

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