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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
    6 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

    A comment underneath clearly states this isn't in the UK. 

    Yeah, that's from the Czech Republic the other day I believe. 

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    I do wonder what the tornado yesterday looked like from a distance, is there any footage of that. It seems to be quite wide having effected both sides of the road. It must have been clearly visible, if not actually in it, if you get what I mean 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

    Not much chance of storms today looking at the forecast modelling, although there are still some chances for convection to develop. Some models have under forecast dew points by the looks of it and others have made a bit of a mess of the low level wind field.  Good chance of a low level wind convergence zone may be along the M4 corridor perhaps moving north a bit late afternoon.

    nmmukwind.thumb.png.1080a2f610ce45ee61c57cbc65912090.png

    Adjusting GFS Forecast SkewT's a little bit gives some low topped convection (not really storm height clouds), but I do like the steep temperature gradient through the low levels. Winds look light and with little veer with height so indication of strong convection here yet low level wind convergence will play a part. It would not take much deviation from modelling to give an isolated storm today.  Maybe towards Norwich and London or Oxford late afternoon worth a watch on the radar, but much lower confidence than yesterday.sound-WestMidlands-12.thumb.png.329e06adc7c476c351bdeb8ad25469aa.png

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    Lots more sun today to help with temps if there's any cap. May be some surprises in land somewhere, we will see.

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    Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL

    Seems to be widespread storm yellow warnings out for  Sunday eve in to Monday morning for locations right across any southern south west and east to London  at least 

    452B3C6E-265E-4551-9186-AA2380A07946.png

    Edited by offerman
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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

    There seems to be a slither of instability across southernmost parts during tonight and tomorrow with the potential for occasional storms. Interesting to see how it plays out. 

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    20 minutes ago, Harry said:

    There seems to be a slither of instability across southernmost parts during tonight and tomorrow with the potential for occasional storms. Interesting to see how it plays out. 

    Well so far, very light french leftovers, barely even registering rainfall.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl

    Storm has kicked off SW of Calais.  

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    Posted
  • Location: west suffolk 12 metres asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/squalls/hoar-frost/misty sunrises/
  • Location: west suffolk 12 metres asl
    53 minutes ago, Harry said:

    There seems to be a slither of instability across southernmost parts during tonight and tomorrow with the potential for occasional storms. Interesting to see how it plays out. 

    Low chance of an elevated import overnight.

    Monday and Tuesday has potential ,might just end up wet. Too far out for detail ATM.

    Edited by Sprites
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    Posted
  • Location: Epsom
  • Location: Epsom

    Met office app is showing 60% thunderstorm chamce at 5pm? Im in epsom, anyone else got anything similar. Clouds dont look likely... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
    10 minutes ago, tempesta said:

    Met office app is showing 60% thunderstorm chamce at 5pm? Im in epsom, anyone else got anything similar. Clouds dont look likely... 

    Picking up on the one shower that seems to pop

    image.thumb.png.60be6df4d4adf83dda5733ebb990fe45.png

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    A few showers starting to build in land on radar now, whether they do anything other than spit a few drops we'll see 

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Not going to happen. 

    Screenshot_20210626_182330_com.android.chrome.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
    9 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Not going to happen. 

    Screenshot_20210626_182330_com.android.chrome.jpg

    Wouldn’t rule it out - there is definitely some potential later afternoon/evening tomorrow 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

    Latest NetWx SR run is interesting. Seems to be suggesting a more westerly component of the daytime rain (some of which really quite torrential across CS/SW England) with a line of heavy downpours developing further east late afternoon.

    This sky overhead currently has also captured my attention. 

    6BE93616-3867-449E-A92C-B4E6B9211AE9.jpeg

    Edited by Harry
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    I know that nothing will happen here but there seems like a little CZ setting up here with some unusual looking clouds.

    IMG_0285.thumb.JPG.b7fcb7a52e9e8154955a6a411f39f23b.JPGIMG_0286.thumb.JPG.91fe7440c644a261a86c1577162b2375.JPGIMG_0287.thumb.JPG.fc02173339e3ae003ecd29e7f15b660c.JPGIMG_0288.thumb.JPG.8b6d2f649b02b10a4e5548ea29c1416d.JPGIMG_0289.thumb.JPG.cafe1e9afeb4fcf10f2d5a6d75ca05d1.JPG

     

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    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight

    There are quite a few towers trying to get going well out in the channel. They look pretty cool glowing orange in the sunset, against a darker background of high cloud.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home - Hutton, Essex / Work - Camden Town, London
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Home - Hutton, Essex / Work - Camden Town, London
    8 minutes ago, Lance M said:

    There are quite a few towers trying to get going well out in the channel. They look pretty cool glowing orange in the sunset, against a darker background of high cloud.

    Yes! We’re in Lymington on a weekend away and I’ve been watching them get so close, anvilling and then swizzling off. I really thought we were up for it about an hour ago, but now it’s just pretty pink and grey

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    Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich

    Tomorrow exhibits some similarities to 16 August 2020, which produced some extreme rainfall totals in south Norfolk (240mm in 6-8 hours). There is a paper currently being published on the meteorology of this event.

    It seems likely a convergence zone may develop in the afternoon somewhere near or just north of the M4 across to Hertfordshire. North of this boundary, a brisk northeasterly wind will, in theory, allow a continuous supply of 'heated' air from East Anglia (where the best potential for cloud breaks is likely by midday and into the afternoon), and this will result in pooling of warm, moist air along this boundary during the afternoon. In @Paul Sherman speak, "spreads" could be 72F/61F over East Anglia.

    Winds aloft are fairly unidirectional (mostly from the ESE), and would in theory steer any storm cells to the WNW or NW, while inflow winds near ground level will be perpendicular (from the NE) and of similar speed to the storm motion. This will help restrain cold outflow / gust front from advancing too far away from the parent cell, and in theory aid the development of daughter cells in a similar location, such that *somewhere* could get multiple cells training over the same area. Profiles are very moist, with a substantial amount of the cloud below the freezing level, so these could deliver a LOT of rain over a period of a few hours. BUT this is highly dependent on many factors, namely the convergence zone developing in the first place and sufficient surface heating, both of which could be scuppered if there's too much cloud/rain or it advances too quickly northwards.

    We often see in the U.S. how the shape/progress of convergence boundaries can get distorted by rain-cooled air from earlier convection, etc.

    The main difference between this event and last August is the magnitude of instability is lower, and the window of potential shorter - so both will mean rain totals will be lower. Either way, currently keeping an eye on the south Midlands / M4 corridor for the risk of some fairly large rainfall totals (various NWP guidance suggests 50-70mm possible, KNMI Harmonie fancies near 100mm on some runs). Perhaps Bucks / Oxfordshire / Berkshire / N Wiltshire / E Glocs most at risk, but need to keep an eye on trends during Sunday to see if this potential still exists. This of course is not including the more widespread heavy rain that will be affecting other parts of Cen S / SW England.

    Note: I'm not necessarily promising loads of lightning because profiles will be very moist, but scope for some torrential downpours and flash flooding etc.

    Edited by staplehurst
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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
    14 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

    Tomorrow exhibits some similarities to 16 August 2020, which produced some extreme rainfall totals in south Norfolk (240mm in 6-8 hours). There is a paper currently being published on the meteorology of this event.

    It seems likely a convergence zone may develop in the afternoon somewhere near or just north of the M4 across to Hertfordshire. North of this boundary, a brisk northeasterly wind will, in theory, allow a continuous supply of 'heated' air from East Anglia (where the best potential for cloud breaks is likely by midday and into the afternoon), and this will result in pooling of warm, moist air along this boundary during the afternoon. In @Paul Sherman speak, "spreads" could be 72F/61F over East Anglia.

    Winds aloft are fairly unidirectional (mostly from the ESE), and would in theory steer any storm cells to the WNW or NW, while inflow winds near ground level will be perpendicular (from the NE) and of similar speed to the storm motion. This will help restrain cold outflow / gust front from advancing too far away from the parent cell, and in theory aid the development of daughter cells in a similar location, such that *somewhere* could get multiple cells training over the same area. Profiles are very moist, with a substantial amount of the cloud below the freezing level, so these could deliver a LOT of rain over a period of a few hours. BUT this is highly dependent on many factors, namely the convergence zone developing in the first place and sufficient surface heating, both of which could be scuppered if there's too much cloud/rain or it advances too quickly northwards.

    We often see in the U.S. how the shape/progress of convergence boundaries can get distorted by rain-cooled air from earlier convection, etc.

    The main difference between this event and last August is the magnitude of instability is lower, and the window of potential shorter - so both will mean rain totals will be lower. Either way, currently keeping an eye on the south Midlands / M4 corridor for the risk of some fairly large rainfall totals (various NWP guidance suggests 50-70mm possible). Perhaps Bucks / Oxfordshire / Berkshire / N Wiltshire / E Glocs most at risk, but need to keep an eye on trends during Sunday to see if this potential still exists. This of course is not including the more widespread heavy rain that will be affecting other parts of Cen S / SW England.

    Boo! Sounding like I might be outside prime areas of interest but some of the latest high res models suggesting sufficient instability to generate some lightning/downpours late afternoon/evening across the SE (although full acknowledge instability is but one ingredient).

    I like days when there’s potential for something 😊

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

    similar to what @staplehurst mentioned, my focus is on SW England for the most intense rainfall, CAPE looks better further east but I'm unsure of storms firing tho wouldn't rule it out. Looks like it will be from that front and also wind convergence Untitled.thumb.png.cb780f31a67214905daeccd3ddbf8fb8.pngnmm_uk1-1-28-1.thumb.png.a8ad94be3897926c2469d1a286621922.pngnmm_uk1-1-29-1.thumb.png.81c071fddaa1925a35b86965d6410e17.pngnmm_uk1-8-27-1.thumb.png.ca2a55d24f8d80fcb3a6fb934646527f.pngnmm_uk1-15-27-1.thumb.png.66305e65585ab07848d1c64fbfdbaf7a.png

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