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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Yep been watching it on lightning maps, crazy. Willing it this way lol. On a serious note the more central one just starting has a chance. Think it might be what the poster above ringed in black.

That Belgium storm has no chance heading for the UK,it's more south of west into west/central France is where we need to look

the storms that way seem to hve died down now,but for how long?

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
14 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Tomorrow looks juicy Sussex / Kent / Essex.

Elevated instability triggered by an active wave -> 2000-3000 j/kg of cape, nice SRH profile on NMM indicating the model is anticipating organised development.

2021061806_202106162315_2_stormforecast.xml.png

nmmuk-27-23-0.png

2000-3000 j/kg of CAPE? Yeah, over Germany, not anywhere close to the UK.. 

That ESTOFEX chart above is for today, here's tomorrows.

2021061906_202106172121_2_stormforecast_xml.thumb.png.68e15454d9091ca9924f4a59c45cf5b0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Off into noddyland mode now

good luck to all tomorrow

i will report sometime tomorrow evening or Saturday/Sunday as i have a mate down

i am out for the chase tomorrow afternoon/evening though

i do hope things fall right,....don't shoot me down if i intercept wrongly,...these storms have a tendency to give you the middle finger when you try to intercept them  

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That Belgium storm has no chance heading for the UK,it's more south of west into west/central France is where we need to look

the storms that way seem to hve died down now,but for how long?

I was thinking the one running parallel to it, although may be it's just the west part of the same system. For now looks to be going north, not north east. But probably just wishful thinking lol.

 

Edited by alexisj9
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7 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

2000-3000 j/kg of CAPE? Yeah, over Germany, not anywhere close to the UK.. 

That ESTOFEX chart above is for today, here's tomorrows.

2021061906_202106172121_2_stormforecast_xml.thumb.png.68e15454d9091ca9924f4a59c45cf5b0.png

Lol been a long day... even so not far from a L1 with respectable instability nearby. 

nmmuk-28-24-0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Witney, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms!
  • Location: Witney, Oxon

What are people planning on chasing tomorrow? Nothing to 'chase' unless you fancy a trip to South Eastern Kent!

Just a rain mass for the remainder of SE and CS England

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex

We're meant to be get some pretty torrential rain for much of tomorrow.....quite excited for a good ole' downpour.....obviously won't mention the T word, because it's gonna be non existent, unless in France, where I'm sure it'll be rampant. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cannock, South Staffordshire
  • Location: Cannock, South Staffordshire

Clearly we have a shift in wind direction towards the SE of the uk which for many of us is disappointing.  The previous French cell that was heading NW towards the Midlands is now backtracking and actually heading NE towards Belgium. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Not much point in posting numerous 18Z charts, so I'll post the accumulation one instead.

1018124952_viewimage(1).thumb.png.f48c10beee1efb9586f7ae8a086c0250.png

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Not much point in posting numerous 18Z charts, so I'll post the accumulation one instead.

1018124952_viewimage(1).thumb.png.f48c10beee1efb9586f7ae8a086c0250.png

Some quite alarming totals in there, especially around my area. Nearly 100mm in 24 hours!? 

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Posted
  • Location: Cannock, South Staffordshire
  • Location: Cannock, South Staffordshire

Nice cell cluster recently broken out around Normandy and with current wind direction could reach the home counties of the UK by midday Friday.  If the current forecast is correct for tomorrow we could see some nice storm activity across the Midlands and Welsh border late Friday evening. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I don't know exactly what the Met Office' thinking on it is, but if some charts are to be believed, an amber warning for rain would be issued.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

Well don't know about anywhere else, but currently it's not raining, it's just misty, to spite the radar.

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Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
5 hours ago, Saint coolio said:

Just arrived in Winchester from Romsey, in downpour and pretty sure I saw a funnel cloud. Can’t see anything obvious on radar. Was about 17:50 to south east when I driving near Braishfield 

What you doing up here lol!

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
12 minutes ago, Peachy said:

Nice cell cluster recently broken out around Normandy and with current wind direction could reach the home counties of the UK by midday Friday.  If the current forecast is correct for tomorrow we could see some nice storm activity across the Midlands and Welsh border late Friday evening. 

None of the reliable short-range forecasts show anything electrical for the areas you mentioned, bar maybe an isolated sferic or two, and that’s if you’re really lucky.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
18 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

None of the reliable short-range forecasts show anything electrical for the areas you mentioned, bar maybe an isolated sferic or two, and that’s if you’re really lucky.

Yeah, main risk is across EA/SE if we're lucky, lightning activity could end up being restricted to extreme coasts. 

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Posted
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
  • Weather Preferences: Wake me up when the storms arrive
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate

I was idly looking at the Met Office's local south east forecast that merrily says it will chuck it down from around 1:00am onwards. As for Friday, it sinks into Disney's La La Land.

I don't see this rain. There's a bit pottering around NW France that appears to be drying as it leaves the coasts. Local pressure here is rising, not falling. The low is heading off to the North Sea as most other forecasts agree. So tomorrow's a drenching for Dogger Land.

What are the Met Office smoking these days? I'm really struggling with the UK forecast the next 24 hours. I simply cannot agree with it.

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

Cells beginning to spring into life around the SE currently, latest UKV shows an area of potential storms moving northwards along with developments in the home counties before moving NE into E.Anglia by morning. Then the 'fun and games' begin just after 10am with intense rainfalls into E.Anglia & southern parts of Lincs throughout the day.

 

Got my eyes glued to the radar for the next 2hrs to see if reality matches the latest UKV output.

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

Going by the latest BBC forecasts it looks like we actually have a much better chance now of getting some thundery weather for more parts of the UK through Saturday night through to Monday.

The long range video forecast showed a band of widespread heavy and thundery rain moving northwards overnight Saturday, then once that clears we have Sunday and Monday having scattered heavy downpours with possible thunder.

Just got to hope now that the thundery rain on Saturday night doesn't become less widespread or shift eastwards again or that the thundery showers on Sunday and Monday get downgraded.

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Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL

Decided to wake up early and there is some heavy showers around but it is not worth going back to bed. I just want some thunder.  

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romsey, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: ☀️
  • Location: Near Romsey, Hampshire
6 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

What you doing up here lol!

My daughter does swim training at the new pool at bar end. I’m always there.

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Posted
  • Location: Blandford, Dorset 102m\334ft ASL
  • Location: Blandford, Dorset 102m\334ft ASL

Here's something I thought you might enjoy whilst not a lot is going on.

FB.WATCH

Log in to Facebook to start sharing and connecting with your friends, family and people you know.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

In other news

What is going on with that forecast and that forecast below it which was issued an hour ago seems to say that the Storms will be quite strong whereas I don't feel confident until later on today. 

Screenshot_20210618_064520_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.1a1a86063ad513ebf505eb4205a098ea.jpgScreenshot_20210618_064528_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.bd25862257ecabf119dd51cb7b38a92e.jpgScreenshot_20210618_064631.thumb.jpg.e7d81d5ce3ff69aa389ec3aa18d0c74d.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Morning all. Looks like there’s a storm that’s headed up through Past Paris, Picardy, into Nord Pas De Calais. It may just clip Kent and head up past East Anglia. Hoping some more get building. Luckily some energy may have been reserved, as storms were not as widespread on the continent as first thought. 

Either way, some huge rainfall totals are going to fall today in some areas. Take care. 

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