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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire

    The nw hourly forecast is showing about 45mm of rain here tomorrow, almost 20mm in 2 hours, but not much chance of thunder apparently.. hopefully it’s not just a torrential mess and we do get a nice display

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

    There is so little instability modelled I’d be very surprised if there’s anything more than occasionally embedded thunder.

    The only notable CAPE forecast last night was for the areas that had thunder and lightning. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Has anyone noticed the vertical line of showers over S Yorkshire that have just developed out of no where?

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    Posted
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, very cold (inc. anticyclonic) weather
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
    2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Has anyone noticed the vertical line of showers over S Yorkshire that have just developed out of no where?

    Yep, saw that. Convergence line I would imagine.

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    3 minutes ago, Harry said:

    There is so little instability modelled I’d be very surprised if there’s anything more than occasionally embedded thunder.

    The only notable CAPE forecast last night was for the areas that had thunder and lightning. 

    That’s what I was thinking, but ITV seemed to be bullish on T&L lol. I think we’ve fallen just on the unlucky side of this plume. I think the best is now reserved for the other side of the water. Just isn’t enough energy here now. 

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    This is just a quick screen grab of the UKV. Inside of the blue line is where I think the best prospect of storms will be.

    1311846971_Screenshot_20210617-203338_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.7dc0782b8a6297fdcf9fa90a4a4cffd4.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Kimberley, Nottinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Kimberley, Nottinghamshire
    12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Has anyone noticed the vertical line of showers over S Yorkshire that have just developed out of no where?

    Here at the end of it at Nottingham, very dark clouds. Credit to my mate

    C9680A61-DADE-4DB2-A698-1EBBB89A8761.jpeg

    Edited by cbish8
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    Posted
  • Location: Cannock, South Staffordshire
  • Location: Cannock, South Staffordshire

    I think you guys are in for quite a surprise tomorrow.  That French cell is clearly moving NW and with tomorrow's forecast of warmer and more humidity this is the perfect recipe for a storm. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    10 minutes ago, suffolkboy_ said:

    Yep, saw that. Convergence line I would imagine.

    Yep,definately some sort of CZ looking at the wind directions.

    w1623956944.thumb.gif.5cf79a8021bb725a930eb94ce44cc4c0.gif

    WWW.XCWEATHER.CO.UK

     

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    Posted
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, gales, all extreme weather really!
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
    2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    Tomorrow is.. complicated.

    An area of low pressure moving N into SE England bringing with it a broader area of dynamic (non thundery) rainfall swirling around it, embedded within it will likely be some thunderstorms that developed across N France and moved northwards with the low, on top of that, mid-level instability across the SE/EA may allow for some homegrown thunderstorms to develop within the low. 

    Highest risk is across the SE/EA, particularly further east of the regions where we're likely to see several convergence zones and stronger shear could allow for upscaling to locally severe thunderstorms. But.. home grown storms will depend on the amount of surface heating and given how messy that low is with cloud and rain swirling around, it's impossible to say. 

    Main issue tomorrow could be the huge amount of rainfall locally, wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of weather stations recording rainfall approaching 100m, certainly presenting a flood risk!

    100m! Think we might need an ark!

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    Rain heavier than it looks on radar here I think.

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    Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL

    Southern Norway is getting decent storm activity, yet some-how the UK always seems to fail. 

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    Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
    38 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    This is just a quick screen grab of the UKV. Inside of the blue line is where I think the best prospect of storms will be.

    1311846971_Screenshot_20210617-203338_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.7dc0782b8a6297fdcf9fa90a4a4cffd4.jpg

    dont mind that as i will be in work 

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    Posted
  • Location: bramall lane the only place to be !!!!!!!
  • Location: bramall lane the only place to be !!!!!!!

    Can clearly see something is firing up over Lincolnshire way as per usual it has gone dark In that direction.

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    Posted
  • Location: bramall lane the only place to be !!!!!!!
  • Location: bramall lane the only place to be !!!!!!!
    37 minutes ago, cbish8 said:

    Here at the end of it at Nottingham, very dark clouds. Credit to my mate

    C9680A61-DADE-4DB2-A698-1EBBB89A8761.jpeg

    Can see that to the east of gone dark towards Lincolnshire/Nottinghamshire

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    Posted
  • Location: Cannock, South Staffordshire
  • Location: Cannock, South Staffordshire

    The French cell has now crossed the channel is is making good gains NW and should soon catch the current system between London and the Midlands. If these two systems mix tomorrow and temps and humidity rise as expected we will see some spectacular thunder storms over the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camelford, North Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells, snow, thunder snow, tornadoes
  • Location: Camelford, North Cornwall

    MetO looking great for the SE/EA most of the day tomorrow! 

     

    10:00 (I think) 

    Screenshot_20210617-212413_Met Office.jpg

    Screenshot_20210617-212448_Met Office.jpg

    Screenshot_20210617-212509_Met Office.jpg

    Screenshot_20210617-212546_Met Office.jpg

     

    Screenshot_20210617-212336_Met Office.jpg

    Edited by Charlie Harnett
    Added a time
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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
    33 minutes ago, Derbyshire_snow said:

    Can clearly see something is firing up over Lincolnshire way as per usual it has gone dark In that direction.

    The skies look stormy here just outside of Lincoln, got a very stormy grey vibe

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    Posted
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
    1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

    When is the next ukv update due?!!

    Appears to be a delay, the 15z run hasn't even came out for me yet? You would expect the 18z run to out now/soon too.

    Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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    Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Convective Weather and Snow
  • Location: NW London
    1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

    Appears to be a delay, the 15z run hasn't even came out for me yet? You would expect the 18z run to out now/soon too.

    Yeah UKV 15z in the summer should come out about 19:52, this 18z usually around 22:00 but I am a bit worried this run might be delayed too...

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