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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    15 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Saturday night looks interesting dont it??!!

    Yes, let’s hope it’s not another bust 🤞

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    1477BD6E-8A43-4B48-9226-06EA9CF6E009.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Welling/ Barbican by day
  • Location: Welling/ Barbican by day

    I have to agree with the post above. Forecasting thunderstorms and MCS is notoriously difficult. Having watched storm chasers chasing the holy grail of tornadoes on the great plains. This I think at times is harder than forecasting snow. Excitement yes flew flashes yes distant deep rumbles. Forecast almost countrywide probably right as its a hazardous warning 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

    I'm not sure calling it a bust was entirely accurate. There was never a consistent picture for more than thundery rain outside of the SE corner. It's a shame we didn't get so much as a rumble around here but it wasn't entirely unexpected west of London. 

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    Television forecasters have a lot to answer for. I know this is an age of sensationalist journalism but both the BBC and ITV would have you thinking the end of the world was nigh last night. As others have said the reality was somewhat more marginal but to the average viewer it would have to be declared a bust

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    Posted
  • Location: West London
  • Location: West London
    7 minutes ago, Nick L said:

    I'm not sure calling it a bust was entirely accurate. There was never a consistent picture for more than thundery rain outside of the SE corner. It's a shame we didn't get so much as a rumble around here but it wasn't entirely unexpected west of London. 

    Even in West London it was expected all forecasts and warnings pointed to it and all we had was heavy rain. No hail, no gusty winds and no lightning. Even then we in the west of London were on the very edge of the heaviest of the rain last night. The met office still has warnings for today through to Saturday but unless something changes for tomorrow morning with the next band of heavy rain I just don't see it happening especially now it's cooled down and will continue to cool down tomorrow is being forecast as a feels like of 13*c while only yesturday we had 28*c I don't see where the justification of the widespread warning even comes from let alone came from for last night.

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    Posted
  • Location: West London
  • Location: West London
    7 minutes ago, BB1979 said:

    Television forecasters have a lot to answer for. I know this is an age of sensationalist journalism but both the BBC and ITV would have you thinking the end of the world was nigh last night. As others have said the reality was somewhat more marginal but to the average viewer it would have to be declared a bust

    it was not just television but any video forecast put on YouTube too from the met office and others too. The met office said it would be 25-28 again today which is a joke I'm seeing maybe 22 at most anywhere.

    Edited by WeatherWatchmanG
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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, 230ft ASL
  • Location: Maidstone, 230ft ASL

    The GFS 6z looks interesting for tomorrow morning (9am) for the SE:  When you consider the GFS had by far the best handle on last nights events too

    image.thumb.png.7093c7c58e0290323879ac2dcbcddd9d.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    More rubbish heading up from the channel, its actually been a much better morning than I expected but looks like we'll be stuck in the middle of more meh convective crud in a couple of hours. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Accuweather always going out there to be different(usually wrong though) 

    Screenshot_20210617_112032.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Congleton
  • Location: Congleton

    Please no more models, charts, predictions or runs for Saturday night. It's far too early to predict what will happen, people were getting it wrong 2 hrs before the Kent clipper last night. Thunderstorms are hard to predict, it's a case of watching the skies and radar to see what develops as and when. By now we must realise that any MCS import from France will clip the Kent and Sussex corner and go east. Happens all the time. This will also be the case next 3 days, all storms on a NE direction coming up from France so they will clip the SE corner. If any popcorn storms randomly appear elsewhere in UK it would be nice but with the fresher air away from the SE and all the energy being used up on the French cells its incredibly unlikely. My area had a yellow warning for overnight storms, we had clear sky and not a drop of rain. And our 3 day warning has now been removed too. Let's not get excited. There will be fantastic events coming up through summer but this isn't one away from the SE

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, 230ft ASL
  • Location: Maidstone, 230ft ASL
    5 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

    Please no more models, charts, predictions or runs for Saturday night. It's far too early to predict what will happen, people were getting it wrong 2 hrs before the Kent clipper last night. Thunderstorms are hard to predict, it's a case of watching the skies and radar to see what develops as and when. By now we must realise that any MCS import from France will clip the Kent and Sussex corner and go east. Happens all the time. This will also be the case next 3 days, all storms on a NE direction coming up from France so they will clip the SE corner. If any popcorn storms randomly appear elsewhere in UK it would be nice but with the fresher air away from the SE and all the energy being used up on the French cells its incredibly unlikely. My area had a yellow warning for overnight storms, we had clear sky and not a drop of rain. And our 3 day warning has now been removed too. Let's not get excited. There will be fantastic events coming up through summer but this isn't one away from the SE

    Please no talk of weather on a weather forum?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    What is interesting currently is that the surface flow is straight out of the NW however the mid and upper level flow is straight from the SW. 

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    44 minutes ago, WeatherWatchmanG said:

    Even in West London it was expected all forecasts and warnings pointed to it and all we had was heavy rain. No hail, no gusty winds and no lightning. Even then we in the west of London were on the very edge of the heaviest of the rain last night. The met office still has warnings for today through to Saturday but unless something changes for tomorrow morning with the next band of heavy rain I just don't see it happening especially now it's cooled down and will continue to cool down tomorrow is being forecast as a feels like of 13*c while only yesturday we had 28*c I don't see where the justification of the widespread warning even comes from let alone came from for last night.

    Has it cooled down, I'm still sweating buckets lol, ok so it's not high twenties, but it's not fresh either. Very sticky warm feeling air.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
    1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

    Yes, let’s hope it’s not another bust 🤞

    0282DBEE-A307-49CF-9954-5E2BC31F131B.jpeg

    1477BD6E-8A43-4B48-9226-06EA9CF6E009.jpeg

    And also hope that its direction of movement doesn't change from moving Northwesterly to Northeasterly again as we get nearer to the night.

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    Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
    31 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    More rubbish heading up from the channel, its actually been a much better morning than I expected but looks like we'll be stuck in the middle of more meh convective crud in a couple of hours. 

    Or as the esteemed Dan Holley calls it, "crapvection" 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
    5 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

    And also hope that its direction of movement doesn't change from moving Northwesterly to Northeasterly again as we get nearer to the night.

    I note some models have shown a split for Saturday night, with one lot of storms/heavy rain heading for the SW, and another being, you guessed it: a Kent Clipper!
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
    2 minutes ago, Lance M said:

    I note some models have shown a split for Saturday night, with one lot of storms/heavy rain heading for the SW, and another being, you guessed it: a Kent Clipper!
     

    the joys of a bifurcating flow! 😖

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    Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
    2 minutes ago, Lance M said:

    I note some models have shown a split for Saturday night, with one lot of storms/heavy rain heading for the SW, and another being, you guessed it: a Kent Clipper!
     

    The possible shift eastwards has already started then.😞

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    Posted
  • Location: Congleton
  • Location: Congleton
    33 minutes ago, James Maidstone said:

    Please no talk of weather on a weather forum?

     

    That's not what I said is it? It's the annoying predictions years in advance that always turn out to be wrong and then people moan it's a bust. Well yea. Watching the sky and following radar as it happens is the only way to know for sure where storms will hit. I get there are forecasts and models and that's fine but when somebody posts one that goes against all the current data and charts and gets people hyped only to then be completely obviously wrong is very annoying. Even the models that all say the same thing are wrong most of the time. Last 8 thunderstorm warnings up here have turned out to be beautiful sunny days and clear nights. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex

    Looking at a replay of the lightning strike map (Liam Dutton on Twitter) the second batch of storms coming up from northern France literarily followed the French/Belgium coast and did everything possible to avoid the channel 😂

    Edited by tomp456
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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    34 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

    Has it cooled down, I'm still sweating buckets lol, ok so it's not high twenties, but it's not fresh either. Very sticky warm feeling air.

     

    Yes the air is heavy with humidity where i am working at moment in Potters Bar. Just dripping....as the sun peeps out. Gut instinct feels there is going to be more rain, at least and hopefully T&L...further west this time please....

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    Posted
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, very cold (inc. anticyclonic) weather
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk

    Sun trying to come out here with a temp of 22.6C and a dewpoint of 20C

    Looks like something starting to happen east of Chelmsford going by the radar so convection must be firing up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
    1 minute ago, suffolkboy_ said:

    Sun trying to come out here with a temp of 22.6C and a dewpoint of 20C

    Looks like something starting to happen east of Chelmsford going by the radar so convection must be firing up.

    Same here, slightly less murky. We do have a fresher NNW'ly at the moment which is quite pleasant if you don't like heat and humidity (unlike me!)

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