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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
    29 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Not worried about what they think. Seen it too many times before with mature storms near-by (usually in northern France) disrupting instability over souther England and the northern channel. Re the met office, there convective forecasts have been poor in the past few month IMO! 

    Cheer up Alderc 🙂 Always the pessimist 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    6 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

    Yeah I was wondering the same thing, perhaps a couple of gravity waves due to the earlier/ongoing convection over the Brest peninsula. The ICON has consistently flagged this potential, but it seems 2-3 hours ahead of schedule which would suggest a landfall along the south coast around 6pm this evening. Very small cells with occasional lightning, probably quite shallow in depth and very high based - perhaps some nice castellanus with virga visible from afar?

    We’re already under an extensive high level cloud shield here now, almost no sun getting through and with that boundary surging north eastwards I do wonder whether it will reduce potential later. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    3 minutes ago, Biggin said:

    Cheer up Alderc 🙂 Always the pessimist 

    Maybe but realistic at the same time. My technical knowledge is nowhere near some of the others on here however I’ve watched these situations on radar for 20yrs now and I’m currently trending cautious to uneasy lol. 

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    23 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Assuming this is some sort of outflow boundary propagating out from the main MCS
     

    C8321B23-8B6E-4BD1-B996-C1FEF0F7D2E8.thumb.jpeg.f03ad43b2bd8eced66633d337f20613e.jpeg

    It's probably what the wind warning is for, the out flow from this thing will be strong.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

    It's probably what the wind warning is for, the out flow from this thing will be strong.

    No, wind warning is a separate event, that is purely the pressure gradient on the northern side of the low. 

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Being very optimistic, low key hoping that a surprise storm pops up but given this overcast cloud all day it's looking unlikely

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    Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
    1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

    It’s going to struggle to get further north than the M4, but for anyone between Devon and East Sussex I think a good few hours of fairly active storms.

    Should be safe enough to be out in as it will be very elevated with a low risk of CGs, but obviously take precautions if you’re in it.

    my main worry is the rain, because I don’t want to be stuck in a steamed-up car all night 😅

    I'm good with that, it can stay in the Channel until about 5pm Sun afternoon as long as we can set up caravans, Khyams and an event shelter.

    Having said that the extra detail for Norwich has gone from torrential to dry on Sunday, so we may get everything sorted without cursing the weather!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    2 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

    Being very optimistic, low key hoping that a surprise storm pops up but given this overcast cloud all day it's looking unlikely

    Are you talking about Lincoln or everywhere else in General. Lincoln has pretty much zero chance today but other areas are not working off Solar Input today more the destabilisation of the 850mb layer as the Theta engages overnight.

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    2 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

    That kicked off rather quickly 

    image.png

    Another feather in convective weathers cap. Although there been a storm over there for a while, it's just suddenly exploded eastwards.

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    Posted
  • Location: Congleton
  • Location: Congleton

    I honestly think this will be just heavy convective rain with a few lightning strikes mixed in towards the CS and SE, and even the rain will be a lot further south than forecasted. Anywhere south of the M4 really.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
  • Weather Preferences: Summer - Storms Winter - Blizzards
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
    3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    Are you talking about Lincoln or everywhere else in General. Lincoln has pretty much zero chance today but other areas are not working off Solar Input today more the destabilisation of the 850mb layer as the Theta engages overnight.

    Who did you borrow that off>

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    1 minute ago, ItIsGee said:

    Who did you borrow that off>

    You Sweetcheeks

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
    6 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    Are you talking about Lincoln or everywhere else in General. Lincoln has pretty much zero chance today but other areas are not working off Solar Input today more the destabilisation of the 850mb layer as the Theta engages overnight.

    Lincoln but yeah I do agree there's zero chance today just with how models are looking and how conditions are here 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Well I am going anyway - Meeting up with some of our guests who have been on our US Storm Chasing trips and if anything else we will have a nice BBQ with a decent view and if something kicks off then a bonus, if not then it will have been nice to have a meet up after such a $ hite 18 months

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    5 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

    I honestly think this will be just heavy convective rain with a few lightning strikes mixed in towards the CS and SE, and even the rain will be a lot further south than forecasted. Anywhere south of the M4 really.

    I think that may well end up being the case for tonight, though we could still get a decent light show if your reasonably close to the channel as the whole lot moves up.

    Does IMO look like a classic 'thundery rain' type deal though, with pockets of stronger convection that may spark to live at times.

    I'm personally more interested in tomorrow afternoon, especially if we can clear out any muck from the possible MCS coming up tonight and get some decent sunshine going. 

    Saturday night may well be more like one of those classic Kent clippers. Historically the models are nearly always too far west at this range with these types of features (Interestingly on north moving systems you see the same bias with tropical cyclones which if they move off path is almost always to the east) and so I suspect there will be some adjustments that may end up happening to that, but thats still a little bit off yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
  • Weather Preferences: Summer - Storms Winter - Blizzards
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
    7 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    You Sweetcheeks

    so kind!

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    Posted
  • Location: Portishead, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Severe
  • Location: Portishead, North Somerset
    1 hour ago, dr weather said:

    Bristol has moderate, gusty ENE's at the moment accompanied by low level Cu, with north-tracking higher level cloud pushing up from the South. I would post some pics but there's nothing of note, really.

    Wind has died down, sun has been out for the last couple of hours and the temperature is tickling 27 degrees now. Not super hot but perhaps decent enough to help matters along later tonight. Barometric pressure has dropped 7mb since yesterday evening.

    Edited by dr weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
    2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

    Should be safe enough to be out in as it will be very elevated with a low risk of CGs, but obviously take precautions if you’re in it.

    "Results show that elevated convection cases produced more rainfall, total CG lightning flashes, and positive CG lightning flashes than surface based thunderstorms."

    https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2705/5a77074615d97ac474ff77694f174f7d3adb.pdf

    Edited by VillagePlank
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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
    50 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

    It's probably what the wind warning is for, the out flow from this thing will be strong.

    Yep, mainly due to it's elevated nature - ie acceleration of air over more distance

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    7 minutes ago, VillagePlank said:

    "Results show that elevated convection cases produced more rainfall, total CG lightning flashes, and positive CG lightning flashes than surface based thunderstorms."

    https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2705/5a77074615d97ac474ff77694f174f7d3adb.pdf

    I do wonder how comparable the midwest is to the channel mind you where most of our elevated stuff comes in from. I've certainly noticed in my years that elevated stuff is typically drier in this neck of the woods and my guess is the SSTs of 17-20c in the channel lead to a rather different lower profile than the 30c+ temps seen on the hot midwest.

    Still an interesting read though for sure! 

    Just from observation higher stuff does tend to be more active and therefore the more strikes you have the higher the chance of a strike I guess as well with it.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
    26 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    I think that may well end up being the case for tonight, though we could still get a decent light show if your reasonably close to the channel as the whole lot moves up.

    Does IMO look like a classic 'thundery rain' type deal though, with pockets of stronger convection that may spark to live at times.

    I'm personally more interested in tomorrow afternoon, especially if we can clear out any muck from the possible MCS coming up tonight and get some decent sunshine going. 

    Saturday night may well be more like one of those classic Kent clippers. Historically the models are nearly always too far west at this range with these types of features (Interestingly on north moving systems you see the same bias with tropical cyclones which if they move off path is almost always to the east) and so I suspect there will be some adjustments that may end up happening to that, but thats still a little bit off yet.

    Does really depend on that tongue of theta-w, and timing of the front. If timing is spot-on, it'll be a night to remember. If not, well, not quite a damp-squib, but really a rather wet one.

    thetaw.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
    7 minutes ago, VillagePlank said:

    "Results show that elevated convection cases produced more rainfall, total CG lightning flashes, and positive CG lightning flashes than surface based thunderstorms."

    https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2705/5a77074615d97ac474ff77694f174f7d3adb.pdf

    The massive 'gurt CG in my profile pic was from an elevated storm 😄

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