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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
    1 hour ago, Ruck Bodgers said:

    B&Q at Meir Park got absolutely flooded, with customers having to evacuate with the water going above their feet, the flooding and rain was that intense!!

    220490754_1963128490528491_2012907136789549697_n.jpg

    Yep, hard to believe that just 3 miles away it stayed bone dry!

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Except, not for us.

    Models say different. 

    Might not be a plume in a classical sense of the word, but higher theta-e moving northwards associated with the elevated thunderstorms tomorrow night is for me, a plume event.  

    viewimage.pbx.png

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    Models say different. 

    Might not be a plume in a classical sense of the word, but higher theta-e moving northwards associated with the elevated thunderstorms tomorrow night is for me, a plume event.  

    viewimage.pbx.png

    We've had that numerous times in the past few months, does that mean we've had numerous plume events? I've not seen anyone mention it... so it looks like we're now calling anything that comes up from the South, a plume?! 😑

    Edited by Mapantz
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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
    29 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

    To old and wise to start poking the plume nest😏

    Oops

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    We've had that numerous times in the past few months, does that mean we've had numerous plume events? I've not seen anyone mention it... so it looks like we're now calling anything that comes up from the South, a plume?! 😑

    Nope, only when it comes up from the Spanish plains. 

    arome-5-35-0.thumb.png.2818f8a9ca656a3aa7d3646760753c5e.png

    Edited by Met4Cast
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    Posted
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
    4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    We've had that numerous times in the past few months, does that mean we've had numerous plume events? I've not seen anyone mention it... so it looks like we're now calling anything that comes up from the South, a plume?! 😑

    I mean that is what a plume is, in simple terms for UK sense "the advection of warm air from the south"?

    Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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    Posted
  • Location: Congleton
  • Location: Congleton

    wouldn't get excited about this so called 'plume'. It will be this............a mass of heavy rain moving northwards whilst the South East (as always) get the lightning .

    I really wouldn't get excited.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    3 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

    I mean that is what a plume is, in simple terms for UK sense "the advection of warm air from the south"?

    **Southerly airflow**

    We don't see any of that.. maybe by Saturday, but that will be a cooler airmass by then.

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    3 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

    wouldn't get excited about this so called 'plume'. It will be this............a mass of heavy rain moving northwards whilst the South East (as always) get the lightning .

    I really wouldn't get excited.

    Except I don't think it'll move north, more like stay south of the Midlands. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Not sure where the "south-east will get all the lightning" comments are coming from personally, greatest risk of lightning to me looks IOW westwards, particularly Doset > Exeter.

    Looking at skew-t's, areas east of the IOW for example have less mid-level instability compared with areas further west. 10pm-4am likely to be when the main action kicks off, assuming it does kick off. 

    gfs_2021072212_039_50_75--2_75.thumb.png.2865d4784d7f6c8c20b67caf6962d9b5.png

    Nevertheless CAPE is rather skinny across all areas, so it'll be interesting to see how much lightning we manage to see. Here's @Ben Sainsbury and my convective forecast.

    ConvectiveRisk2.thumb.png.c93019ebcc49bdd1160828e1820b470d.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
    18 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    Not sure where the "south-east will get all the lightning" comments are coming from personally, greatest risk of lightning to me looks IOW westwards, particularly Doset > Exeter.

    Looking at skew-t's, areas east of the IOW for example have less mid-level instability compared with areas further west. 10pm-4am likely to be when the main action kicks off, assuming it does kick off. 

    gfs_2021072212_039_50_75--2_75.thumb.png.2865d4784d7f6c8c20b67caf6962d9b5.png

    Nevertheless CAPE is rather skinny across all areas, so it'll be interesting to see how much lightning we manage to see. Here's @Ben Sainsbury and my convective forecast.

    ConvectiveRisk2.thumb.png.c93019ebcc49bdd1160828e1820b470d.png

    I think that’s a pretty fair shout @Met4Cast and @Ben Sainsbury.

    The interesting complication here is that most models are indicating that the best instability, by around 03z - 08z, will be further east. But, the best engagement between the plume and the trough will be further west - as we know, instability is of little use without a trigger. 

    I think that forecast is pretty spot on between 10z and 04z - but I’d extend both zones further east for between 04z and 09z. Saturday day/night and Sunday then become more complicated with areas of reasonable instability, fronts and troughs spiralling around. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    3 minutes ago, Harry said:

    I think that’s a pretty fair shout @Met4Cast and @Ben Sainsbury.

    The interesting complication here is that most models are indicating that the best instability, by around 03z - 08z, will be further east. But, the best engagement between the plume and the trough will be further west - as we know, instability is of little use without a trigger. 

    I think that forecast is pretty spot on between 10z and 04z - but I’d extend both zones further east for between 04z and 09z. Saturday day/night and Sunday then become more complicated with areas of reasonable instability, fronts and troughs spiralling around. 

    Just on your last point, the graphic runs up until 6am on Saturday, completely agree that the risk becomes more widespread into Saturday morning, we'll have a separate forecast covering that, just waiting for tomorrows runs before trying to nail anything down 🙂 

    Tomorrow night will certainly be an interesting one!

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    Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
    42 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    **Southerly airflow**

    We don't see any of that.. maybe by Saturday, but that will be a cooler airmass by then.

    Don't confuse surface flow with flow of airmass at 850hpa which is where the storms will be based.

    This isn't like other more recent events but the ingredients are there

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

    Estofex gone with an early forecast for Saturday into early hours Sunday…

    ... S-UK ...

    Slow moving convection within the deformation band brings high rainfall amounts. Good ventillation aloft and a mean storm motion of 5 m/s should support a few heavy rainfall reports although a weakening/decoupling inflow from Benelux should keep this risk in check. EPS data has a few higher members, but otherwise nothing to justify a level area for now. Could see a small upgrade, if more aggressive IFS verifies (right now still an outlier) but general progressive nature of this deformation band should keep these probs. low.

     

     

     

    AF66F6ED-45E4-4E4F-BEF3-2322D96D0F7E.png

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    2 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

    Don't confuse surface flow with flow of airmass at 850hpa which is where the storms will be based.

    This isn't like other more recent events but the ingredients are there

    I wasn't, but there isn't a southerly flow at 850..

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    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight

    Interesting forecast from Dan, a LOT going on there! Let's hope that yellow shading makes its way up to central S England on a later update 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Evening all

    there has been some great post's in here over the last few days,...thanks guys for your hard work because i know how time consuming it is editing videos

    @Zak M,them pics/stills are completely true weather porn, will look at the vid later as it's late now but thank you

    Finally,...the BoB is lighting up good and proper now with some good cloud tops in there

    BoB.thumb.png.e1f34e14819ed01d84d470e9c55ea255.png

    image?type=km&region=fr
    EN.SAT24.COM

    Satellite images with clouds height of France, Weather in France - SAT24.com

    good luck down there in the south as it is looking good for tomorrow>>

    cheers and have a good weekend.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare
    22 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

    do we have any live Cornish Cameras ? Might be able to pick up that lightning 😮 

    Might be able to see on this one 

    WWW.CAMSECURE.CO.UK

    Sennen Cove live webcam overlooks the beautiful Sennen Cove in Cornwall UK from an ideal location high above the cove in one of the lovely Atlantic Cottage Holidays rental premises. This live streaming webcam from...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
    4 minutes ago, Mark -W-s-M said:

    Might be able to see on this one 

    WWW.CAMSECURE.CO.UK

    Sennen Cove live webcam overlooks the beautiful Sennen Cove in Cornwall UK from an ideal location high above the cove in one of the lovely Atlantic Cottage Holidays rental premises. This live streaming webcam from...

     

    thanks, FPS is a low, but I can see frequent lightning on this cam from the site you linked 

    WWW.CAMSECURE.CO.UK

    Penzance Harbour in Cornwal live webcam showing the beautiful and very interesting views of the slipway, harbour wall and general boating area around the sailing club. You can also just see the church in the back...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Congleton
  • Location: Congleton

    200 strikes a minute of the SW coast of UK right now... Unfortunately most of this electrical activity will fizzle out when the storm hits land

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    • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-09-19 10:28:59 Valid: 19/09/2021 1200 - 20/09/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SUN 19TH SEPT 2021 Click here for the full forecast

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