Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

[DanDorsetUK]

12 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

Just seen a massive CG 

They aren't very often but we definitely have visible lightning off the south coast

Yes also seen looking toward Purbeck and Weymouth

[alexisj9]

Things just starting to turn up seems to have built there.

[StormLoser]

Estofex has updated its forecast to move the Level 1 in the UK to a more distinct zone, with the threat being heavy rain mostly, before storms.

The northern France coast webcams are showing some good lightning in the Channel - especially west of Le Havre.  

[Liam Burge]

3 minutes ago, beckyonsea said:

I'm in Burnham On Sea and it has significantly darkened. 

My first post here and I'm very much enjoying the info and the banter.

Welcome!

[Sam jackson88]

1 minute ago, StormLoser said:

Estofex has updated its forecast to move the Level 1 in the UK to a more distinct zone, with the threat being heavy rain mostly, before storms.

The northern France coast webcams are showing some good lightning in the Channel - especially west of Le Havre.  

looks even better than the one from last night 

[Liam Burge]

[Mapantz]

Looking at the animated lightning maps, it seems to be hitting a brick wall and not getting much closer.

[Eagle Eye]

2 hours ago, Liam Burge said:

Hey @Eagle Eye, sorry to bother but what do you think my storm chances are now?

Around 35% still

[Met4Cast]

Probably some of the best plume engagement we've seen so far this summer. 

Elevated convection holding together nicely along the frontal boundary as it drifts northwards, seemed initially a few hours ahead of schedule but the 10pm-2am window looks about right now as the system has slowed slightly, but is importantly continuing to develop.

Dorset eastwards to about Brighton along the coast in the best position, IOW/Southampton area probably seeing a direct hit. 

Starting to see that easterly back building Dan was speaking about yesterday too.

[Ben Sainsbury]

18 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

@Ben Sainsbury what are the reasons mate? please

Models don’t have any intense activity moving much further north than the south coast. I personally think anywhere west of Bournemouth is out of the action unless you’re directly on the coast in S Devon and you should see lightning offshore tonight.

Edited July 23, 2021 by Ben Sainsbury

[Cornishdave]

39 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Person just above that post said they heard some rumbles.

I’m in Exeter and the sky turned threatening and now it’s raining very heavily! 
 

[alexisj9]

5 minutes ago, Sam jackson88 said:

looks even better than the one from last night 

Not to me it doesn't lol, well at least I'm still in the lightning zone.

Edited July 23, 2021 by alexisj9

[Eagle Eye]

Thought I'd missed it having watched Black Widow at the cinema, glad I haven't yet. 

[Sam jackson88]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

Probably some of the best plume engagement we've seen so far this summer. 

Elevated convection holding together nicely along the frontal boundary as it drifts northwards, seemed initially a few hours ahead of schedule but the 10pm-2am window looks about right now as the system has slowed slightly, but is importantly continuing to develop.

Dorset eastwards to about Brighton along the coast in the best position, IOW/Southampton area probably seeing a direct hit. 

Starting to see that easterly back building Dan was speaking about yesterday too.

fingers crossed that most of us on south coast can get a nice light show, if iow and southampton get a direct hit i will be over the moon

[Liam Burge]

1 minute ago, Cornishdave said:

I’m in Exeter and the sky turned threatening and now it’s raining very heavily! 
 

The sky is also turning very dark for me as well.

[DragonFire]

I am very disappointed with the last storms we had a few days ago in Northampton as all we got was a few minor rumbles of thunder.

Where are the flying cows?

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

"Thundery rain" yes, you could sort of say that, come on keep going storms. 

[Sam jackson88]

Sky above me looks good

[Luke Best]

24 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

Just seen a massive CG 

They aren't very often but we definitely have visible lightning off the south coast

Was that the CG plus crawler S of the Purbecks 5 mins ago? 

[Badgers01]

5 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Around 35% still

Do you just pick a number out from thin air and stick to it ?

[tomp456]

Looking forward to a light show later (maybe)  

I'll be on Worthing Pier should mother nature decide to deliver. 

[Jamie M]

 

[Norfolk Sheep]

5 minutes ago, DragonFire said:

I am very disappointed with the last storms we had a few days ago in Northampton as all we got was a few minor rumbles of thunder.

Where are the flying cows?

 

 

You'll just have to be satisfied with flying ants...

[Southern Storm]

2 minutes ago, Luke Best said:

Was that the CG plus crawler S of the Purbecks 5 mins ago? 

Was a while back now, but definitely a CG but with two 45 degree forks coming off it if that makes sense

 

Seen more flashes, and a few deep rumbles, but we seem to be in a lull ATm

 

 

[DragonFire]

1 minute ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

You'll just have to be satisfied with flying ants...

Yea, I hate this heat but the flying ants are loving this hot weather.