Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

[Paul Sherman]

Cant see much commenting on the 06z Arome on here ?

Looks pretty decent to me for a much wider audience

[TJS1998Tom]

Looks like this cloud is why we won't get any storms

 

[philglossop]

1 hour ago, sendandreturn said:

What's that app Phil?

Blitzogtung 

[VillagePlank]

4 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Looks like this cloud is why we won't get any storms

 

The overnight storms are forecast to be elevated, so not connected to what's going on lower down - ie we don't need strong insolation to get going. It looks, rather, a function of the theta-w plume arriving at the same time as the cold front.

Edited July 23, 2021 by VillagePlank

[ItIsGee]

9 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Cant see much commenting on the 06z Arome on here ?

Looks pretty decent to me for a much wider audience

Armchair chaser you are!

[Paul Sherman]

Just now, ItIsGee said:

Armchair chaser you are!

I dont get out of bed for anything less than an EF3 

[ItIsGee]

4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

I dont get out of bed for anything less than an EF3 

surprised you can get your ar53 out of bed for a p155!

Edited July 23, 2021 by ItIsGee

[Paul Sherman]

16 minutes ago, ItIsGee said:

surprised you can get your ar53 out of bed for a p155!

Liked the way you did that but the Jaffa Cakes sounded nicer

[ItIsGee]

2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Liked the way you did that but the Jaffa Cakes sounded nicer

very true! Trust you to like the food words better! 

 

[Azazel]

34 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Cant see much commenting on the 06z Arome on here ?

Looks pretty decent to me for a much wider audience

aye looks good for almost the entirety of the south coast. Little late in the night for what I would like but i've often seen these things go off much earlier/later than forecast

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

It’s going to struggle to get further north than the M4, but for anyone between Devon and East Sussex I think a good few hours of fairly active storms.

Should be safe enough to be out in as it will be very elevated with a low risk of CGs, but obviously take precautions if you’re in it.

my main worry is the rain, because I don’t want to be stuck in a steamed-up car all night

[LeveLUP]

I'm just wondering if I'll need to unplug the TV and PC tonight . Had a online mate lose his PC's ethernet capabilities when the house next over to his got hit by a strike. Traveled through the cable internet and damaged his modem as well.  

And sods law dictates as I need to sleep well tonight that everything will explode and I'll miss it all while catching ZZZ's 

[dr weather]

Bristol has moderate, gusty ENE's at the moment accompanied by low level Cu, with north-tracking higher level cloud pushing up from the South. I would post some pics but there's nothing of note, really.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I’m waiting excitedly for the warm tongue to arrive

[Guest]

I’m not liking this, high level cloud streaming north west from the activity over Brest hopefully the stronger outflow doesn’t mix things up too much. 12Zs could be tough viewing IMO. 

[WeatherWatchmanG]

Just watched the newest met office video and it looks like maybe three bands of storms will come crashing though 2am, 10am, 4pm tomorrow.

 

rolling in the Awning in the words hail was used and some areas 50mm of rain uh so more rain that the plants can't take.

[DanDorsetUK]

19 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I’m not liking this, high level cloud streaming north west from the activity over Brest hopefully the stronger outflow doesn’t mix things up too much. 12Zs could be tough viewing IMO. 

Interest starts from 8pm onwards... Met office sound confident...

 

The warnings start with a yellow wind warning for the southern coastal counties of England, lasting from Friday afternoon until midnight on the same day. Strong northeasterly winds could gust up to 55mph, which is most likely on hills and exposed coastal areas in the warning region. This could lead to tricky driving conditions, especially for larger vehicles or those towing caravans.  

These winds precede the first of two yellow weather warnings for thunderstorms for the weekend,  the first one starting at 20:00 on Friday night and lasting through to 22:00 on Saturday night. The focus for this warning is over southern England and Wales, although some central areas are also covered.  

This area is likely to see frequent lightning, thundery rain and continued strong, gusty winds. There’s also a risk of large hail falling in a few locations and where heavy downpours occur, up to 35 mm could fall within an hour, bringing a possible risk of flooding.  

[Sam jackson88]

That storm west of France is still putting out 105 to 130 strikes a minute, WOW

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Dan Clow said:

Interest starts from 8pm onwards... Met office sound confident...

 

The warnings start with a yellow wind warning for the southern coastal counties of England, lasting from Friday afternoon until midnight on the same day. Strong northeasterly winds could gust up to 55mph, which is most likely on hills and exposed coastal areas in the warning region. This could lead to tricky driving conditions, especially for larger vehicles or those towing caravans.  

These winds precede the first of two yellow weather warnings for thunderstorms for the weekend,  the first one starting at 20:00 on Friday night and lasting through to 22:00 on Saturday night. The focus for this warning is over southern England and Wales, although some central areas are also covered.  

This area is likely to see frequent lightning, thundery rain and continued strong, gusty winds. There’s also a risk of large hail falling in a few locations and where heavy downpours occur, up to 35 mm could fall within an hour, bringing a possible risk of flooding.  

Not worried about what they think. Seen it too many times before with mature storms near-by (usually in northern France) disrupting instability over souther England and the northern channel. Re the met office, there convective forecasts have been poor in the past few month IMO! 

Edited July 23, 2021 by Alderc

[camturbo]

Let's just see what unfolds,after all we are just sumising what may or may not happen. Mother nature will do what she wants to do. Forecasts seem to suggest that storms will happen in various parts of the country but time will tell. Enjoy the chase 

[DanDorsetUK]

Just now, Alderc said:

Not worried about what they think. See it too many times before with mature storms near-by (usually in northern France) disrupting instability over souther England and the northern channel. Re the met office there convective forecasts have been poor in the past few month IMO! 

For once I'm quite optimistic on this one. We've had some bad luck over the years but this time it will be different. We're both in the sweet spot you watch Soon as I saw the sky this morning and this wind. Its game on!

[Guest]

Assuming this is some sort of outflow boundary propagating out from the main MCS? 
 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Hoping some of you will get a decent show tonight. However, as I said earlier in the week, I’ve been watching this event get watered down, and waning away as each day goes on. The positioning of the low is just too Far East and south for anything decent/severe to erupt. We needed a correction further North and West to tap into some proper juice, but that will now definitely remain over France. All I can see from this is thundery rain at best! 

[staplehurst]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Assuming this is some sort of outflow boundary propagating out from the main MCS? 
 

Yeah I was wondering the same thing, perhaps a couple of gravity waves due to the earlier/ongoing convection over the Brest peninsula. The ICON has consistently flagged this potential, but it seems 2-3 hours ahead of schedule which would suggest a landfall along the south coast around 6pm this evening. Very small cells with occasional lightning, probably quite shallow in depth and very high based - perhaps some nice castellanus with virga visible from afar?

[toggerob]

I've finally got my PC back after a 10 day wait for repairs  been looking at the storm-chat on here yet frustratingly not being able to pitch-in but luckily i've still got the laptop for RADAR watching and been on some mini-chases over the past few days, with the highlight being yesterday afternoon where 4 visible cells passed close-by enough Tideswell for a intercept in the car, followed by the Microburst event in Manchester as seen from Sponds Moor.