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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
2 minutes ago, pad199207 said:

Strange. IIRC plumes delivered quite beautifully for the Liverpool Area on multiple occasions last year.

True, although I’m not sure that was a classic plume more a hybrid. Anyway 9 out of 10 times they don’t deliver here.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
5 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

I’m looking forward to  polar maritime showers here next week.; they’re always exciting unlike these stupid plumes. 

Agreed! I am also looking forward to some sleep at night

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL

It will be just rain by the time it hits uk lol

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
1 minute ago, karyo said:

Agreed! I am also looking forward to some sleep at night

Definitely!

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Posted
  • Location: Southampton
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and thunderstorms, snow in winter
  • Location: Southampton
37 minutes ago, Tikka_69 said:

Good webcam for watching the storm over in France

 

Seeing some cracking lightning on this!

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
8 minutes ago, karyo said:

Yes, it looks like a dry weekend for the majority of the country. At some point it looked like much of England and Wales would get rain/showers but the downgrades have been continuous.

Latest ukv same as well!

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Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton
6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Latest ukv same as well!

As per the UK, not surprised.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
22 minutes ago, karyo said:

Agreed! I am also looking forward to some sleep at night

Add latest gfs as well to the drier theme!!!band of rain tomorrow gets as far as southern midlands before dying out!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
6 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Got the charts? 

 

 

They were made free-to-view a couple of months ago

Edit: sorry, formatting is a bit messed up on this post

Edited by Lance M
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Add latest gfs as well to the drier theme!!!band of rain tomorrow gets as far as southern midlands before dying out!!!

Also, biig downgrade for Sunday on the latest gfs

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Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
28 minutes ago, Dan Clow said:

Guys run the sequence through on Windy.com never seen the likes of it. Growing so fast!!

I had a look, I wasn't sure what I was supposed to find o,o I ran the sequence

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Hmmm yes big downgrade on the UKV, basically nothing until the early hours at best. Anything like that happens that’s a big difference to the various forecasts being issued this morning. I noted PJB is also very cautious about the chances tonight.

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Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex

At this late stage I never look at the models and predictions; it's pointless really.
Far more fun to watch the sat/radar/sferics and have camera gear at the ready.
Just hope my camera doesn't pack up like it did the last time (turned out I'd spilt a strand of tobacco in the memory card slot! :D )

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Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth

It's brewing...

Screenshot_20210723-111434_Blitzortung Lightning Monitor.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

Stuff trying to build ahead of the MCs now, we'll see, if it can manage anything. Lot's of light blue one radar in the SW now. Or is it ants again lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

The one in mid-June was perfect timing for me but we're not getting that today so, we'll see how we go. 

Usually if I’m still awake and out at 5am it’s because the forecasted storms haven’t happened / happened many miles away. Hoping this time it’s because there’s still plenty to watch

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Posted
  • Location: North Cornwall 187ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Thunder & Lightning, Snow.
  • Location: North Cornwall 187ft asl

Have just gotten a yellow warning for strong winds from 3pm and thunderstorms later. I'm in North Cornwall. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl

I looked at all the forecasts and models for this weekend on Tuesday night, then left it to work itself out while concentrating on maintaining the Colchester storm shield system. We had a potential supercell on out doorstep and turned it into a light shower in 10 mins. 

Anyway, going off what the Met Office, the BBC and Brian Gaze's latest along with UKMO and ECM output. My conclusion is that forecasts may have shifted around in the meantime but the forecast I had to give several people who were planning weekend events on Tuesday is pretty much still valid based on today's output. Perhaps watching each run is bad. 

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