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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
4 minutes ago, Dan Clow said:

The satellite view is looking really promising in my eyes! Could be a very large light show this tonight! 

2019455918_Screenshot_20210723-094114_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.5f593adc06518785c04a1481346b4a1d.jpg

That is one big MCS

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Posted
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire
7 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Are you sure about that? 

It was a pretty wet start for NW England at the start of this July

 

That was more up towards Manchester and Yorkshire.... From what I can recall last rain we had was early June

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

image.thumb.png.187f82aec0572329e056e10e1728483e.png

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

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Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

That is one big MCS

Which from experience is bad news, don’t want that turning into a big convective mess as the morning goes on mixing out everything….

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Posted
  • Location: Southsea, Hampshire
  • Location: Southsea, Hampshire

All of that activity, I guess must be super slow in moving, if it's scheduled for the wee small hours? Feels/looks like it could be by the afternoon!

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
6 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Which from experience is bad news, don’t want that turning into a big convective mess as the morning goes on mixing out everything….

It’s almost guaranteed. Expect the expected

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Posted
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, sendandreturn said:

All of that activity, I guess must be super slow in moving, if it's scheduled for the wee small hours? Feels/looks like it could be by the afternoon!

It's been there since 2am so yes it's very slow moving

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14
6 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Which from experience is bad news, don’t want that turning into a big convective mess as the morning goes on mixing out everything….

Keep the faith, today's wind has storm feel written all over it. We're upto 22oC already. Forecast was for 20oC for this time of day. 

Look at the instability already...

20210723_095746.thumb.jpg.d42492c8580fcdafe3e9a21a75b91e58.jpg

20210723_095750.thumb.jpg.e9088c1f0e0addd64096fdee0544fe5c.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
19 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Which from experience is bad news, don’t want that turning into a big convective mess as the morning goes on mixing out everything….

A few observations I've notice, one it appears the MCS is further north than what the hi-res models show. Fortunately steering flow current NNW and should move NW then WNW through the afternoon, with new convection continually developing on the east side of the system.

What is different today compared to a typical Spanish plume is that the steering follow is more NNW/NW than NNE/NE and normally favouring more central areas than SE regions.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Posted
  • Location: Doncaster, South Yorkshire
  • Location: Doncaster, South Yorkshire

Good webcam for watching the storm over in France

 

Edited by Tikka_69
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Posted
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire
Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

It’s almost guaranteed. Expect the expected

100%. Classic scenario with the usual ingredients... Lots of lightning out to sea, as it moves in to the UK lightning becomes isolated and confined to only CS England and SE and then the rest of the South into Midlands get a heavy convective mess of just rain 

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Wight
  • Location: Isle of Wight
6 minutes ago, LeveLUP said:

I remember being on a summer scout camp back in either 2007 or 2008 on the IoW and we had a pretty intense night of storms one night we were fairly high up near ish to the gun club if I remember the camp correctly. Unsurprisingly it was a rather wet night 

I believe it was 2008 we had some cracking storms. Think it was july that was all night non stop storms.. 

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Unbelievable really, the same areas south of Ireland have had lightning for 6hrs now…..I’d be happy with 6 Cgs! 

Yes I was thinking that hasn't moved at all has it.

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

Having looked at Connective Weather's Forecast towards the morning hours maybe a hard right turn from this stuff, I really want it to come earlier morning storms don't exactly make for pictures if it's 5am especially with elevated storms. 

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
48 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

Yep you guessed it. It's the South who are going to have all the action again. We havnt had a rumble of thunder up here since August last year and it hasn't rained for 6 weeks now. Even yesterday when there were a few scattered storms up north my town at around 7pm had a storm 10 miles to the south, 10 miles to the east and 10 miles to the north. And then they fizzled out. You honestly couldn't make it up how unlucky we have been. Anyway, looking forward to seeing the photos and boasts from the southern half of the UK tonight.... 

How good is your, view to the south. 

If it clear sky's north of the action, might be a good time to look out above the storm, to try and see sprites. That's that red upward lighting. Good luck to anyone who tries.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Just now, Eagle Eye said:

Having looked at Connective Weather's Forecast towards the morning hours maybe a hard right turn from this stuff, I really want it to come earlier morning storms don't exactly make for pictures if it's 5am especially with elevated storms. 

I slightly dispute this - you can’t really see the storm structure in the middle of the night, so 5am can be good for catching a shelf or funnel, and you can get a better idea of what’s going on around and where the action is headed if you can see the sky.

But yeah it’s not the most photogenic time of day, clouds tend to all appear the same pastel blue regardless of their size and type, and lightning is often more cold-pink / cyan (depending how far away you are from it)

its been a while and I’m basing this on only a handful of times I’ve been out at this time.

I agree storms are better late afternoon or evening though

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Posted
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Severe Weather events
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire
15 minutes ago, Tikka_69 said:

Good webcam for watching the storm over in France

 

Nice CG's on that feed!

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
8 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I slightly dispute this - you can’t really see the storm structure in the middle of the night, so 5am can be good for catching a shelf or funnel, and you can get a better idea of what’s going on around and where the action is headed if you can see the sky.

But yeah it’s not the most photogenic time of day, clouds tend to all appear the same pastel blue regardless of their size and type, and lightning is often more cold-pink / cyan (depending how far away you are from it)

its been a while and I’m basing this on only a handful of times I’ve been out at this time.

I agree storms are better late afternoon or evening though

The one in mid-June was perfect timing for me but we're not getting that today so, we'll see how we go. 

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

I’m looking forward to  polar maritime showers here next week.; they’re always exciting up here unlike these stupid plumes. 

Edited by Chris.R
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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
24 minutes ago, karyo said:

The 6z ICON has adjusted the low even further south compared to its earlier run.

 

Same with euro4 and ukv!!one thing ive noticed is there was a lot of rain forecasted more widely for england for this weekend it now looks mainly dry for most areas especially when viewing the ukv!!

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Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

I’m looking forward to  polar maritime showers here next week.; they’re always exciting unlike these stupid plumes. 

Strange. IIRC plumes delivered quite beautifully for the Liverpool Area on multiple occasions last year.

Edited by pad199207
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Same with euro4 and ukv!!one thing ive noticed is there was a lot of rain forecasted more widely for england for this weekend it now looks mainly dry for most areas especially when viewing the ukv!!

Yes, it looks like a dry weekend for the majority of the country. At some point it looked like much of England and Wales would get rain/showers but the downgrades have been continuous.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
17 minutes ago, ztam said:

I believe it was 2008 we had some cracking storms. Think it was july that was all night non stop storms.. 

Not sure. Whether 2008/2006 but I remember, a great big line of storms stalling in the south, staying there all night. Then moving north in the late morning, I lived there n Croydon then, and when it finally reach us, rain was so heavy it caused rivers down streets in literally 3mins, plus was coming thr9ugh the roof even thought there was no leak, and wasn't one anytime after either. But the lightning was amazing, but was to preoccupied with everything else. I'd be rather worried if this is gonna do the same though, cause it flooded the dour and Dover town centre that time. Could do without that now. Although I live away from there, so wouldn't effect me to much personally.

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Posted
  • Location: Southampton
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and thunderstorms, snow in winter
  • Location: Southampton

Hmm I'm getting seriously tempted to drive 'home' to Southampton this evening given what looks like a decent forecast, but I'm scarred from so many failed plumes in the past.

Can see it already, a big wet mess with little electrical activity for most of the south coast with lightning restricted to East Sussex/Kent coastal areas as the night goes on. I daren't get my hopes up!

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