Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

[Guest]

Storms absolutely pinging away over the south western approach’s, hopefully that be the case of the coast of Hant, Dorset and Devon in about 14hrs still…..but I’m fully prepared for it just to be a messy convective rain event.

[Azazel]

Positive signs this morning.

[Guest]

Hmm not sure what too make of Arome and Arpege, both appear to have strong, precipitation and probably quite profiling lightning in the mid channel about 10pm however the precipitation rapidly weakens on approach to the coast (as usual) Arome has a strong secondary push about 4-5am however I’m always cautious about those as they nearly always tend to be over cooked 

[ChannelThunder]

It's always a nerve-wracking experience waking up on the day of a potentially really good event and checking the models to see if it's still game on. Thankfully, this one's looking better than it did last night, if anything!

It can only go wrong from here! Two years to the day since the last nighttime storm that I could actually photograph and witness CGs from - hopefully that's a good omen. Every mid-late July should have a plume event let's face it!

[wimblettben]

8 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Looks very similar to a few weeks back when Lightning will be more prevalent as time goes by on the eastern end of the storms moving north out of France. Expect bright echoes firstly from IOW westwards from 18z to 23z this as Dan says merging into Thundery rain as it makes its way North but regeneration further east as storms push northwards all the way to East Sussex / Kent coast looks likely.

I will be out and about waiting for the early hours show and will not get tempted by a drive towards Hampshire or Dorset, gunna be a long night but hopefully 1 thats worth it in the end if the expected High Based elevated lightning occurs off the coast.

If any others are out good luck and I have my spot in mind already.

Same old stupid story of what has happened this whole year then for higher level storms.

We actually had some home growns here yesterday evening to the east in the distance which was good but I still would prefer a night time storm.

Edited July 23, 2021 by wimblettben

[Harry]

@staplehurst just issued an updated forecast on www.convectiveweather.co.uk.

CS England and parts of SE now moderate. I’m going to be just on the cusp of the moderate this tonight - let’s see what Mother Nature might cook up

[Ciderwithrosie]

59 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Positive signs this morning. Yes , we have that in Somerset ( Taunton) as well this morning . 

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

The storms in the channel recording 150 strikes/min at the moment and it's no surprise why looking at the Sat24. Unfortunately won't be out tonight, due to one I'm moving house properly for the first time tomorrow and two I cracked my windscreen on my drive home from my chase on Tuesday

[DanDorsetUK]

Wow what a great storm update for the South of UK heading out tonight now! Really hoping we get lucky this time!! Drone at the ready!

[AnvilCrawlers]

Yet again storms cant make it this far north and the heat goes out with a whimper.Used to be a time when they used to regularly hit here but not now.Not even much in the way of rain now for here,was hoping for some rain for the garden as it needs it.deffo been a poor year here for storms.2 i think and have to except we will get less as the years go on.dont like the heat unless it does bring a storm.

[Guest]

28 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

The storms in the channel recording 150 strikes/min at the moment and it's no surprise why looking at the Sat24. Unfortunately won't be out tonight, due to one I'm moving house properly for the first time tomorrow and two I cracked my windscreen on my drive home from my chase on Tuesday

Unbelievable really, the same areas south of Ireland have had lightning for 6hrs now…..I’d be happy with 6 Cgs! 

[ztam]

58 minutes ago, Lance M said:

It's always a nerve-wracking experience waking up on the day of a potentially really good event and checking the models to see if it's still game on. Thankfully, this one's looking better than it did last night, if anything!

It can only go wrong from here! Two years to the day since the last nighttime storm that I could actually photograph and witness CGs from - hopefully that's a good omen. Every mid-late July should have a plume event let's face it!

Fingers crossed for us.. 

It sure has been a long time Since the island has had a proper storm. 

I miss the days of being out in the photographing  lightning..  

[Guest]

Big eastwards shift with some of the forecast, I’ve gone from the eastern end of the low risk to the western end of the moderate risk. I don’t like being on the western end lol 

[DanDorsetUK]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Big eastwards shift with some of the forecast, I’ve gone from the eastern end of the low risk to the western end of the moderate risk. I don’t like being on the western end lol 

I recon we will be fine here. Looking at the amount of activity so early in the day already I think we're in for quite the show later! Even feels different out today! Alot of cool breeze about. 

[BrickFielder]

Chance of storms this afternoon for Western Wales and Ireland. Later into the night we have what looks like an occluded front bringing elevated imports into the southern half of the UK. High cloud tops  outflow dominant storms are likely to bring a Good lightening show and localized flooding.

Mainly south west and south coast but perhaps beginning to become a little surface based early Saturday morning across London and M4 corridor.

A word of caution about the forecasts. You need to pay close attention to where the instability is and where the steep lapse rates are.

So the area to look at in the 8am to 10am period is the South East.

Its perhaps mid afternoon in the South West that conditions come together for surface based storms.

Weak wind shear , bit of a cap , low cloud bases and moderately High tops  with slight jet over running.

Looking at Satellite images then this forecast could be significantly  off in terms of severity and location but caution is needed to prevent over hyping the storm potential. Some Good photo opportunities are likely though if you get the location right.

 

[Turquoise]

Yep you guessed it. It's the South who are going to have all the action again. We havnt had a rumble of thunder up here since August last year and it hasn't rained for 6 weeks now. Even yesterday when there were a few scattered storms up north my town at around 7pm had a storm 10 miles to the south, 10 miles to the east and 10 miles to the north. And then they fizzled out. You honestly couldn't make it up how unlucky we have been. Anyway, looking forward to seeing the photos and boasts from the southern half of the UK tonight.... 

[Azazel]

2 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

Yep you guessed it. It's the South who are going to have all the action again. We havnt had a rumble of thunder up here since August last year and it hasn't rained for 6 weeks now. Even yesterday when there were a few scattered storms up north my town at around 7pm had a storm 10 miles to the south, 10 miles to the east and 10 miles to the north. And then they fizzled out. You honestly couldn't make it up how unlucky we have been. Anyway, looking forward to seeing the photos and boasts from the southern half of the UK tonight.... 

the central south/south west has had barely anything this year. Here in hampshire, I had a distant rumble in May, which I'm not even sure was a rumble of thunder, it could've been the bins or construction. It's been absolutely dire.

[Norfolk Sheep]

33 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Unbelievable really, the same areas south of Ireland have had lightning for 6hrs now…..I’d be happy with 6 Cgs! 

Six? I'd be happy seeing a very distant flicker!!

[Chris K]

Not sure whether to expect much for my area of the W Country tonight. Most forecasts show things dwindling just before reaching here. Seen that a few times in recent years. Perhaps my best chance will be any showers that develop Saturday afternoon.

Good luck down on the S coast. Looks like a decent chance. Always hope a heatwave ends with a bang but I usually wake up to a grey, cool mess

[DanDorsetUK]

Has a completely different feel to the air here in Poole today. Breezy cool air mixing out. I'm already liking the signs. Alot of instability showing towards the South west already as I look out over the purbecks. Have a very good feeling about this!

[karyo]

It looks like London will be the northern extend off any storms tomorrow. That's assuming they make it here.

Let's hope there won't be any more southward adjustments.

[LeveLUP]

37 minutes ago, ztam said:

Fingers crossed for us.. 

It sure has been a long time Since the island has had a proper storm. 

I miss the days of being out in the photographing  lightning..  

I remember being on a summer scout camp back in either 2007 or 2008 on the IoW and we had a pretty intense night of storms one night we were fairly high up near ish to the gun club if I remember the camp correctly. Unsurprisingly it was a rather wet night 

[Weather-history]

14 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

 it hasn't rained for 6 weeks now. 

Are you sure about that? 

It was a pretty wet start for NW England at the start of this July

 

[DanDorsetUK]

The satellite view is looking really promising in my eyes! Could be a very large light show this tonight! 

[Guest]

Just now, Azuremoon2 said:

Yep you guessed it. It's the South who are going to have all the action again. We havnt had a rumble of thunder up here since August last year and it hasn't rained for 6 weeks now. Even yesterday when there were a few scattered storms up north my town at around 7pm had a storm 10 miles to the south, 10 miles to the east and 10 miles to the north. And then they fizzled out. You honestly couldn't make it up how unlucky we have been. Anyway, looking forward to seeing the photos and boasts from the southern half of the UK tonight.... 

lol can’t really say that, haven’t had a decent storm (a couple of one rumble wonders) in 2-3years nows. Nearly all of England has had greater lightning activity than the central south coast in the last few years.