Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Phildb2 said:

Metcheck.com are forecasting THUNDER SNOW !! for Warwickshire Saturday lunchtime 

Lol what, pmsl.

[Supacell]

4 hours ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

Did you get anything from Tuesday's action?

I did. I chased a storm around Stamford/Corby area with intense winds and marble sized hail. I'm putting the video together right now.

[Supacell]

@Zak M Awesome pictures. I will watch the video later, looking forward to it. And thats not picture spam, it's picture porn

[Supacell]

4 hours ago, Arnie Pie said:

Looks like its maintaining a southerly direction...We should be able to see the structure from here if it makes it down to the Burton area

I did get some storm action from it but it did seem to die somewhat as I reached it near to Ashbourne. Still, I got some more video to edit (after I finish Tuesdays). It was a nice little bonus as I hadn't planned to chase today.

Edited July 22, 2021 by Supacell

[Turquoise]

3 seperate cells just around Manchester but lightning seems to have stopped...strange

[HarryA98]

Thought i'd share a 'decent' lightning bolt from the bedford storm Tuesday.
What's the thoughts on this weekends chances?

[Joey.GII]

Did a smol chase, got on the Bakewell storm as it approached Matlock then redeveloped near Ashbourne, gave up as it redeveloped again toward Stoke performing a sort of 270 degree turn in total also chased the ones near derby and Nottingham for a time. Did manage to see a few cgs and as others have said very frequent thunder from hidden IC strikes. Not a drop in Belper as usual @Supacell 

[Foxgloves]

Thought I'd share these pics from my of that Manchester cell developing taken from the Wirral between 7:15 - 8pm

[Stormhog]

Estofex have put the South coast under a Level 1 for severe weather tomorrow night:

European Storm Forecast Experiment - ESTOFEX

WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG

 

[Arnie Pie]

6 minutes ago, Stormhog said:

Estofex have put the South coast under a Level 1 for severe weather tomorrow night:

European Storm Forecast Experiment - ESTOFEX

WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG

 

That will be the plume that's not really a plume then

[Supacell]

26 minutes ago, joey.g2003@gmail.com said:

Did a smol chase, got on the Bakewell storm as it approached Matlock then redeveloped near Ashbourne, gave up as it redeveloped again toward Stoke performing a sort of 270 degree turn in total also chased the ones near derby and Nottingham for a time. Did manage to see a few cgs and as others have said very frequent thunder from hidden IC strikes. Not a drop in Belper as usual @Supacell 

Belper misses all the storms. It's a good job I chase!!

[Harry]

8 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

That will be the plume that's not really a plume then

Miaow!

50% and lvl 1 hatching more than welcomed

[Azazel]

What do we reckon tomorrow then guys. I’m leaning towards just very heavy rain. 

[Coops241180]

This is one of the Manchester storms taken from Warrington. Think I can hear the odd rumble but this one might pass us by like yesterday’s. 

[viking_smb]

3 minutes ago, Azazel said:

What do we reckon tomorrow then guys. I’m leaning towards just very heavy rain. 

same

[Harry]

1 minute ago, Azazel said:

What do we reckon tomorrow then guys. I’m leaning towards just very heavy rain. 

I think there’s a reasonably good chance of thunderstorms across southern England (not the same as saying all of southern England will see storms). 

Estofex comment that;

“Additional storms may form over N France, the Channel and S England, but their severe weather risk should mainly be confined to heavy rain, while their elevated nature keeps the other hazards on the low side.”

Most models indicate heavy rain and the existent of half decent CAPE suggests potential for lightning. As ever with these things though it’ll be nowcasting and seeing if anything can develop.

Further chances Saturday night, more especially for the SE, as residual unstable air threatens to move back in, but in these setups I’d suggest we are too far out for Saturday night.

[Ben Sainsbury]

20 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

That will be the plume that's not really a plume then

"An elevated mixed layer from NW Africa and the Spanish Plateau shifts NE-ward and is advected over rich low-level moisture over the W Mediterranean Sea and the French lowlands" has Spanish Plume written all over it

Edited July 22, 2021 by Ben Sainsbury

[StormChaseUK]

 

7 minutes ago, Azazel said:

What do we reckon tomorrow then guys. I’m leaning towards just very heavy rain. 

i would say elevated lightning shows for South Coast, Somerset midnight onwards. 

Heavy rain Sat morning for elsewhere.

 

Unless it's going to be 1990s standards huge MCS 

 

[Arnie Pie]

6 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

"An elevated mixed layer from NW Africa and the Spanish Plateau shifts NE-ward and is advected over rich low-level moisture over the W Mediterranean Sea and the French lowlands" has Spanish Plume written all over it

To old and wise to start poking the plume nest

[viking_smb]

@staplehurst What are your thoughts for tomorrow night mate?

[Mapantz]

11 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

"An elevated mixed layer from NW Africa and the Spanish Plateau shifts NE-ward and is advected over rich low-level moisture over the W Mediterranean Sea and the French lowlands" has Spanish Plume written all over it

Except, not for us.

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Except, not for us.

agreed, I dont think we will get anything tomorrow night 

[Mapantz]

Just now, viking_smb said:

agreed, I dont think we will get anything tomorrow night 

It's not a particularly good set up. I would say the best chance of lightning would be IoW & East, but that depends on the arrival of the trough.

There's been several of these synoptics over the past couple of months - lightning showing in the channel, everyone gets excited, and then it ends up just being rain. Whilst there's still a risk, I think the better chances will be from showers on Sunday.

[viking_smb]

Just now, Mapantz said:

It's not a particularly good set up. I would say the best chance of lightning would be IoW & East, but that depends on the arrival of the trough.

There's been several of these synoptics over the past couple of months - lightning showing in the channel, everyone gets excited, and then it ends up just being rain. Whilst there's still a risk, I think the better chances will be from showers on Sunday.

i'm of that thinking as well we will just get heavy rain, I dont want thunderstorms sat as i got to take the sea cadet rib out of the water to work on it, as we restart boating soon, 

[Mapantz]

That's quite a nice looking chart for Sunday, to be honest..