Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

[Tn9]

2 hours ago, BrickFielder said:

Models suggest that humidity will be down today compared to yesterday and any upper level support will be moving out of the UK. Personally I am not seeing dewpoints drop off too much and the overnight soundings do not look much drier than than the day before.

Similar pattern of low level wind convergence as previous days with Cumbria and London being areas of possible storm development.

 

Not totally convinced about the lack humidity and dry air compared to yesterday but the modelling has been pretty good in recent days.

Satellite images confirm upper level disturbance is mostly on its way out of the UK so storms like yesterday are unlikely.

 

Actually the body is a good sensor at ground level at least for humidity ,without data and looking at models,you can sense the wind (still a NE at surface )not a cloud to be seen ,but there is a little fresher feel ,but not overly so ,like you say ,but like  the man who brings the beers to a tea party (upper level disturbance ) the debauchery and action is not there to be had ..:-(

[karyo]

According to Euro 4 Cumbria is the place to be today but the forecasts here show the southeast as having the highest chance. 

I will keep an eye on how things develop 

[Nick L]

Some photos of the belter of a storm last night, was really like something out of the Plains. The timing with sunset made for some great colours.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Mammatus on the storm after it fizzled out near Stevenage last night

[Harry]

Getting increasingly interesting for Friday night across S England. Bit of a messy set up with a wave of decent instability swinging in overnight which could generate some elevated storms. Possible complicating factor is the development of weather fronts which could interrupt proper convective weather, resulting in some more like heavy rain with odd bit of thunder rather than storms. 
 

WRF NMM then reintroduces some more instability (albeit a bit lower than Friday night) across southern and southeastern parts during Saturday night.

[Guest]

Shame there’s nothing in the forecast for the south today, plenty of juiciness at the surface given it’s 27/20C currently. Wonder what trigger temp we’d need to make things pop here. 

[Weather-history]

Fair weather cumulus has developed around here. 

[Harry]

In terms of today, it feels markedly different to the past couple of days - it is less humid, albeit still very warm. The sky is very stable looking right now apart from a very small area of Ac towards the west over London. This time yesterday and on Monday, the skies were flooded with AcCas and TCu. 
 

This of course could all change if CZs develop, but has been alluded to by @BrickFielder and others, any storms that form (in the SE at least) won’t be like yesterday or Monday.

Edited July 21, 2021 by Harry

[Mapantz]

11 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Shame there’s nothing in the forecast for the south today, plenty of juiciness at the surface given it’s 27/20C currently. Wonder what trigger temp we’d need to make things pop here. 

Probably around 34 or 35°C at a guess..

Weak to moderate cap down here.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Probably around 34 or 35°C at a guess..

Weak to moderate cap down here.

Whatever it is it’ll be about 1C higher than we get too! 

Edited July 21, 2021 by Alderc

[Harry]

Last post from me for a while (promise). Met Office have issued a yellow warning for Saturday and Sunday for the risk of heavy rain and thundery showers - currently applies to southern UK.

[ztam]

26 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Shame there’s nothing in the forecast for the south today, plenty of juiciness at the surface given it’s 27/20C currently. Wonder what trigger temp we’d need to make things pop here. 

Convective weather has some area's in the south for today

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

23 minutes ago, ztam said:

Convective weather has some area's in the south for today

There also mention on UKWW with risk box for south London in particular.

Likelihood of a storm is low but - at the risk of mixing my metaphors - should one get it’s foot in the door we could get some pretty decent fireworks for a time

[matty40s]

Humidity very high after evening storms near Northampton, clouds forming earlier than yesterday.

[Turquoise]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

Getting increasingly interesting for Friday night across S England. Bit of a messy set up with a wave of decent instability swinging in overnight which could generate some elevated storms. Possible complicating factor is the development of weather fronts which could interrupt proper convective weather, resulting in some more like heavy rain with odd bit of thunder rather than storms. 
 

WRF NMM then reintroduces some more instability (albeit a bit lower than Friday night) across southern and southeastern parts during Saturday night.

South East again. What a surprise. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

South East again. What a surprise. 

And it won’t happen as with nearly every forecasted storm barring this week

[Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

South East again. What a surprise. 

Whilst I haven't had a storm in the last 2-3years yet. May I remind you of last year? Ring any bells?

[minus10]

Which this lot would get its act together and help blot out the sun a bit more let alone producing showers/storms later....so humid again in the gardens...

[Sam jackson88]

Clouds forming to my west and nw 

[karyo]

Cumulous clouds are starting to bubble up in west London.

[Supacell]

6 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

South East again. What a surprise. 

The southeast has always been more prone to thunderstorms than the northwest, it is just the way the weather works, it is warmer there and they are closer to the Continent. Places in the east also do well. If anything, over recent years, I have seen a tendency for the southeast to receive less storms than they used to do whereas the Midlands and the North have seen a little more, although there are areas that get more than others, for example Lincolnshire gets more than Cheshire.

I am unsure how old you are or if you can drive but waiting around for a storm to hit your house could be a very long wait. There was not a single storm over my house between July 4th 2015 and July 24th 2019, that's just over 4 years! If you do have to sit and wait then maybe consider a move to somewhere like Sleaford.

[staplehurst]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Shame there’s nothing in the forecast for the south today, plenty of juiciness at the surface given it’s 27/20C currently. Wonder what trigger temp we’d need to make things pop here. 

The 00z Herstmonceux would suggest 29C, 00z Nottingham convects at 27C but has a warm nose at ~790mb that would realistically need surface temperatures closer to 30C to overcome (or if there was strong forcing from below). Lack of upper level support today (unlike yesterday) means convective cloud will probably struggle away from any marked convergence zone to provide the necessary 'kick' from below. Convergence at the moment seems most pronounced over W Kent into East Sussex, and perhaps between Southampton and Bournemouth. Hopefully the sea breeze can do its thing in S England this afternoon (smaller risk in East Anglia), but overall I have lower expectations today than on Monday

Edited July 21, 2021 by staplehurst

[Azazel]

cumulus is bubbling up to the north and north west of andover which is exactly where i need it to be today.

[AnvilCrawlers]

3 minutes ago, Supacell said:

The southeast has always been more prone to thunderstorms than the northwest, it is just the way the weather works, it is warmer there and they are closer to the Continent. Places in the east also do well. If anything, over recent years, I have seen a tendency for the southeast to receive less storms than they used to do whereas the Midlands and the North have seen a little more, although there are areas that get more than others, for example Lincolnshire gets more than Cheshire.

I am unsure how old you are or if you can drive but waiting around for a storm to hit your house could be a very long wait. There was not a single storm over my house between July 4th 2015 and July 24th 2019, that's just over 4 years! If you do have to sit and wait then maybe consider a move to somewhere like Sleaford.

The sitting and waiting is just so me.haha.Ive learnt now not to expect storms like we used to.even this part of the midlands there has been a decline.Yesterday got so close but yet so far.lovely cloud formation,watching Blitz and Real Time only to find it went east of here to south of here and then move away southwards.

Last year did similar thing also with an evening/night storm.came so close and then moved away.it almost like it teases you.The thing i find with storms now is if you get one its a bonus if not oh well carry on with doing something else.Trust me ive had the pain and suffering of no storms in the past and have learnt to live with it now,Although storms are awesome and so rare and excites me i can no longer put all my heart into it like i used to cause the disappointment is so frustrating.Been there done that and wore the T-shirt.

Storms in this part of the midlands does seem less now and i have to except it sadly,would be ironic tho with such a low risk today that a random storm comes overhead. Thats just wishful thinking but never say never.

[Harry]

Temperatures close to 29C now and signs of instability appearing to my NE and NW…you never know.