Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

[Ben Sainsbury]

The MDT risk from CW have convinced me to definitely have a chase day today. Likely to position near to Stevenage, get there for around 12-1pm and should have a good 8 hours or so of potential storms.

[Harry]

Wow, I’m in the moderate risk Get in!!!!

[sheikhy]

Im in the slight risk zone!same as last nights update!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

20 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

The MDT risk from CW have convinced me to definitely have a chase day today. Likely to position near to Stevenage, get there for around 12-1pm and should have a good 8 hours or so of potential storms.

Good luck Ben. Lots of routes and fairly decent roads to chase down that way. A505 is a good one heading Northeast, A120 for Stansted area towards Colchester, the A1 itself, and then up to the A428 towards the A14 with pretty fast routes East. West of there however, the roads get narrower towards the chilterns, probably the A421 would be the best one westbound of the A1 

Edited July 20, 2021 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Ben Sainsbury]

3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Good luck Ben. Lots of routes and fairly decent roads to chase down that way. A505 is a good one heading Northeast, A120 for Stansted area towards Colchester, the A1 itself, and then up to the A428 towards the A14 with pretty fast routes East. West of there however, the roads get narrower towards the chilterns, probably the A421 would be the best one westbound of the A1 

Thanks, this is big help! Despite being a confident/regular long distance driver, I've never actually be around N London/E Anglia sorta way so this is so handy! Anyone, feel free to drop me a message if you're likely to be out nearby!

[Eagle Eye]

My computer science teacher has allowed us a free period, shame it wasn't 5th period today then I could check radar and look outside.

[Tn9]

9 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

My computer science teacher has allowed us a free period, shame it wasn't 5th period today then I could check radar and look outside.

You must be finished soon surely ,but by the details of sods law ,there will be nothing ,but weekend doesn't look to sad,but yesterday and today are quite uncommon ,yesterday they actually started building over the the downs /green sand ridge , and mosied on towards you I guess ,if it gets good ,pull a sicky,cor sir don't feel well ,sorted

[matty40s]

Well if you wanted unstable, you had to  be up at sunrise...

Near Wellingborough......

Should I get off the Nene??

[ChannelThunder]

Good luck all of you chasing. I'd be happy to see some evening lightning from a distant anvil! All hopes pinned on Friday for me still!

[Harry]

5 minutes ago, TN9 said:

You must be finished soon surely ,but by the details of sods law ,there will be nothing ,but weekend doesn't look to sad,but yesterday and today are quite uncommon ,yesterday they actually started building over the the downs /green sand ridge , and mosied on towards you I guess ,if it gets good ,pull a sicky,cor sir don't feel well ,sorted

You’re a bad influence @TN9 

 

[Eagle Eye]

4 minutes ago, TN9 said:

You must be finished soon surely ,but by the details of sods law ,there will be nothing ,but weekend doesn't look to sad,but yesterday and today are quite uncommon ,yesterday they actually started building over the the downs /green sand ridge , and mosied on towards you I guess ,if it gets good ,pull a sicky,cor sir don't feel well ,sorted

Finishing today, my school's in Ashford so I missed the best of the storm

[Chris Lea-Alex]

17 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Thanks, this is big help! Despite being a confident/regular long distance driver, I've never actually be around N London/E Anglia sorta way so this is so handy! Anyone, feel free to drop me a message if you're likely to be out nearby!

Also, surprisingly, the A45 between Northampton (M1) and Thrapston (A14) is a very fast road.  

[Harry]

1 minute ago, Lance M said:

Good luck all of you chasing. I'd be happy to see some evening lightning from a distant anvil! All hopes pinned on Friday for me still!

Latest GFS runs are showing a marked line of instability running across the SE quarter and possibly points further West overnight Friday. Models have been really grappling with the evolution of this though so all usual caveats apply. If the Low progresses eastward more quickly, the instability will stay over the continent. If however it slows, more areas could get some overnight action. Then it’s post frontal instability for many areas over the weekend with decent chances for good old fashioned home grown thundery showers.

[Harry]

Last post from me for a while - after crystal clear skies an hour ago the sky is now full of AcCas, Ac and mackerel-age. Signs so far are looking good plus I heard seagulls just now and I’ve never heard them around these parts. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, Harry said:

Last post from me for a while - after crystal clear skies an hour ago the sky is now full of AcCas, Ac and mackerel-age. Signs so far are looking good plus I heard seagulls just now and I’ve never heard them around these parts. 

Might just mean someone’s dumped a load of rubbish next to your house

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

45 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Thanks, this is big help! Despite being a confident/regular long distance driver, I've never actually be around N London/E Anglia sorta way so this is so handy! Anyone, feel free to drop me a message if you're likely to be out nearby!

I’m chasing from Woking at about 3pm, hopefully. You don’t want to be under any of the heaviest rain - that was no fun yesterday - but today there’s a wide area under the risk zone, so you’ll be spoiled for choice wherever you are

There’s a choice to head north up towards Luton, East towards Tonbridge, or stay local and head somewhere open like Wisley, but waiting for further clarity before making a decision

Edited July 20, 2021 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[TropicThunder]

No work today and looks like I'm well positioned here, so definitely looking to head out chasing this afternoon. Probably head a little SE of here and see what develops. Hopefully an exciting day in store for many!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Option no.4: stay up the Shard

[ChezWeather]

Good luck today everyone, always nice to see a MDT risk from ConvectiveWX! 

[Electricmumma]

I’m hoping we don’t get a repeat of yesterday’s “so close yet so far” as I’m not mobile and mini me is dying to have a “real” storm.

[Atmogenic]

By the way people on here are saying, I might get the same as I did yesterday and THIS time I will try record it in one video 

[Jeffers146]

So..... I was suppose to be at work today all day... but the boss said at 9am go. Beautiful!! Looking at the forecasts Lincoln is looking more promising than first thought. One thing I’ve noticed today is the humidity. Feels like a tropical day in Florida. Guess it’s wait and see. Good luck everyone today.

[Jamie M]

There we are, day's off! 

[Nick F]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - TUESDAY 20TH JULY 2021

Issued 2021-07-20 08:54:05
Valid: 20/07/2021 0600 - 21/07/2021 0600

Forecast Details

… SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR E ENGLAND …

Hail to 2-3cm diameter

Flash-flooding

Localised wind gusts to 50mph

Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning

Brief tornadoes

Discussion

The UK on Tuesday will mostly be under the stable influence of an upper level ridge axis extending N over Ireland in between upper level low over the Atlantic and upper trough over Scandinavia. However, a shortwave upper trough moving SE in stronger NWly flow aloft over N and E UK on periphery of upper ridge will, along with low-level breeze convergence of hot/moist airmass, trigger heavy showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across the eastern side of England.

Intense heating (temps reaching low 30s inland) of a moist airmass characterised by dew points of 17-19C across England and Wales, is forecast to yield CAPE in excess of 1000 j/kg inland this afternoon during peak heating. Strong surface heating, cooling and increased large scale ascent aloft with passage of shortwave upper trough moving SE, combined with surface lift from convergence zones and upslope flow of higher ground will help erode any capping of strong surface instability from early afternoon to support the development of scattered thunderstorms across E Midlands, E and SE England. Outflow and cold pools generated by existing storms triggering new storms nearby too.

Strengthening mid-upper level NW flow on the western edge of shortwave trough moving SE and backed flow towards the surface is forecast to increase vertical shear to 20-30 knots across E England this afternoon. This will be sufficient for storm organisation to allow updraft and downdraft separation and with strong CAPE forecast, large hail (2-3cm diameter) looks possible to form in the updrafts of stronger storms along with strong convective wind gusts (up to 50mph) from the downdraft region of storms. With PWAT (Precipitable Water) forecast to be up to 32-34mm across SE England, there is also the threat of intense rainfall in a short space of time from any storms, which may lead to localised flash-flooding. Funnel clouds and perhaps a brief / weak tornado are possible with stronger updrafts which are forced to rotate along convergence zones.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

 

Severe Convective Weather & Storms Forecast - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

Edited July 20, 2021 by Nick F

[Electricmumma]

5 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

There we are, day's off! 

And there’s me.. the little sad smiley sitting melting so close yet so far