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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire

Spent the weekend in Kings Lynn where we had a good chance on Saturday and still managed to miss everything but a few light showers on sunday... I think the storms avoid me!

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent

We have had some huge cells passing over us dumping loads of HEAVY rain all day in between brief sunny periods. The forecast was bang on. Frustratingly though, there is just absolutely no trigger with huge cell after cell passing over but no sparks or rumbles at all. 

Yet ANOTHER bust.  

Edited by Windblade
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Posted
  • Location: Southampton
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and thunderstorms, snow in winter
  • Location: Southampton
5 hours ago, Delka said:

Spent the weekend in Kings Lynn where we had a good chance on Saturday and still managed to miss everything but a few light showers on sunday... I think the storms avoid me!

If it's any consolation there was naff all in Wellingborough over the weekend either!

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
18 minutes ago, Windblade said:

We have had some huge cells passing over us dumping loads of HEAVY rain all day in between brief sunny periods. The forecast was bang on. Frustratingly though, there is just absolutely no trigger with huge cell after cell passing over but no sparks or rumbles at all. 

Yet ANOTHER bust.  

It's only a bust if something was predicted in the first place 

The 09z Larkhill (Wiltshire) ascent highlights the profile over southern England fairly well, convection is generally capped around 500mb giving cloud top temperatures near -20C (locally colder where stronger convection can punch a little higher). Probably why the showers look very "blobby" - convection goes up, hits the "cap" and spreads out. Around 300-400 J/kg CAPE sampled, and given ~half of the cloud layer is above the freezing level still scope for the odd rumble of thunder, but nothing too significant other than numerous heavy showers.

LARKHILL.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: BRIGHTON, EAST SUSSEX and MAIDENHEAD, BERKSHIRE
  • Location: BRIGHTON, EAST SUSSEX and MAIDENHEAD, BERKSHIRE

Current skies over Windsor/Maidenhead area

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864E6C94-C16D-48A9-99D8-066087746F94.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

Risk of storms tomorrow as trough/occluded front (not exactly sure which) brings some drier cold air aloft. At the same time the approaching Jetstream from the west forces curvature and convergence of low level winds (low level trough moisture advection). This is likely to trigger storms where low level wind convergence occurs. Key areas look like a line from  Swansea through to Hull which moves slowly southwards during the afternoon to a line from Cardiff to Lincoln.

srwed15rain.thumb.png.7282c25e58b595fa6942f3e015cf0de5.pngsrwed15wind.thumb.png.e2b126a6db2ef62a3288dd9b832bd11d.png

Biggest instability likely to be in the east. At the same time we have another brown willy effect convergence zone in Cornwall and Devon sparking heavy showers.

Forecast SkewTs suggest low cloud bases which combined with low wind veering could produce some very weak spout type tornadoes. Steering winds are light but may bee enough for updraft and downdraft separation and slightly drier air aloft might lead to fewer but slightly stronger storms.

sound-WestMidlands-24.thumb.png.22f7f9c4a25f0980e2e08b60d24d9e9e.png

Temperatures are still too low for High instability storms and wind sheer is low so overall its a low risk of severe storms.

ukcapeli.thumb.png.af5d7c1e0d0c94ce6f58c4f0e325abe3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting - mostly storms or snow
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, UK

Heavy shower going over me right now, just had a few random flashes and loud rumbles - almost directly overhead as well according to lightningmaps.

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

No storms today but plenty of skies like these causing heavy showers and havok to my gardening work schedule!

20210706_160240.thumb.jpg.735350677422d01dcadc425addd6b369.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

Not really much change in forecast from yesterday for today. Slight disagreement in where convergence zone will be across the Midlands with some models having it further North. Risk of storms for East Scottish borders and Edinburgh. Edinburgh looks like a key area for a storm. Both low convergence and upper trough come into play so there may be more than one train of storms.

nmmukwind15.thumb.png.84e4e940468df8be09a6679ba57f6de5.pngnmmuk3hrprecip15.thumb.png.7bd65329ee2e5b4ebff55d7981100ba4.png

Complications in the forecast come from a low level low developing off the coast of North Wales. Satellite imagery shows lobes of vorticity associated with it which could spark addition storms across the south and increase instability. The risk is that storms develop in unexpected places and are more severe.

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Main risks appear to be Edinburgh, Hull to Lincoln, and downstream from Dartmoor. Repeated heavy rainfall as storm trains develop in the South ,lightning for the east, and spouts for the Midlands. Satellite suggests some risk of a curve ball with either enhanced or reduced storm risk. Overall instability looks weak so severe storm risk is low.

sound-WestMidlands-18.thumb.png.17a15aa3a9d8156a416f2fe00c03725f.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

CW have given an MDT

-------------------------------------

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 07 Jul 2021 - 05:59 UTC Thu 08 Jul 2021

ISSUED 06:36 UTC Wed 07 Jul 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Longwave upper trough will slowly migrate eastwards across the UK/Ireland on Wednesday, the main jet activity diverted well south over Iberia and Central Europe. A moist low-level airmass will be present across England and Wales, with dewpoints of 14-15C, beneath cool air aloft. Diurnal heating will yield 400-800 J/kg CAPE in an environment with modestly-steep mid-level lapse rates. Early fairly extensive low cloud and light rain or drizzle will likely transition to scattered heavy showers by late morning, the risk of numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms then persisting through the afternoon and into the evening hours. 

Showers/thunderstorms will tend to be focussed along several convergence zones that are likely to evolve through the day, one from Dorset/Somerset northeastwards into the south Midlands, another from C/E Wales across the Midlands to Yorkshire/Lincolnshire. These two corridors of activity may merge together towards the evening hours as the trough axis approaches from the west. Additional low-level convergence is expected to also develop near North Sea coasts from Edinburgh down to the Humber. Forecast profiles suggest deep convection to as much as 33,000ft with some reasonably dry air aloft. Lack of strong flow aloft results with rather weak shear, generally 5-15kts through the cloud-bearing layer. That said, the thermodynamic profile may be support for some fairly active thunderstorms at times, but the main hazards (aside from lightning) will be localised flash flooding - especially where multiple cells train over similar areas. The strongest cells may produce hail 1.0-1.5cm in diameter. Showers and thunderstorms will slowly decay during the mid-late evening period.

largethumb.thumb.png.05349f20c42c653d855c9fb6fbeb918b.png

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

sadly i will be in work this afternoon.

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Posted
  • Location: Louth,Lincolnshire
  • Location: Louth,Lincolnshire
1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

CW have given an MDT

-------------------------------------

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 07 Jul 2021 - 05:59 UTC Thu 08 Jul 2021

ISSUED 06:36 UTC Wed 07 Jul 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Longwave upper trough will slowly migrate eastwards across the UK/Ireland on Wednesday, the main jet activity diverted well south over Iberia and Central Europe. A moist low-level airmass will be present across England and Wales, with dewpoints of 14-15C, beneath cool air aloft. Diurnal heating will yield 400-800 J/kg CAPE in an environment with modestly-steep mid-level lapse rates. Early fairly extensive low cloud and light rain or drizzle will likely transition to scattered heavy showers by late morning, the risk of numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms then persisting through the afternoon and into the evening hours. 

Showers/thunderstorms will tend to be focussed along several convergence zones that are likely to evolve through the day, one from Dorset/Somerset northeastwards into the south Midlands, another from C/E Wales across the Midlands to Yorkshire/Lincolnshire. These two corridors of activity may merge together towards the evening hours as the trough axis approaches from the west. Additional low-level convergence is expected to also develop near North Sea coasts from Edinburgh down to the Humber. Forecast profiles suggest deep convection to as much as 33,000ft with some reasonably dry air aloft. Lack of strong flow aloft results with rather weak shear, generally 5-15kts through the cloud-bearing layer. That said, the thermodynamic profile may be support for some fairly active thunderstorms at times, but the main hazards (aside from lightning) will be localised flash flooding - especially where multiple cells train over similar areas. The strongest cells may produce hail 1.0-1.5cm in diameter. Showers and thunderstorms will slowly decay during the mid-late evening period.

largethumb.thumb.png.05349f20c42c653d855c9fb6fbeb918b.png

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

sadly i will be in work this afternoon.

Seems like lincolnshire being the sweet spot agian today dont mind if i do 

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Posted
  • Location: North Hykeham, Lincoln
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Heat
  • Location: North Hykeham, Lincoln
6 minutes ago, Hurricane Andrew said:

Seems like lincolnshire being the sweet spot agian today dont mind if i do 

Makes a change to recent years.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
46 minutes ago, Hurricane Andrew said:

Seems like lincolnshire being the sweet spot agian today dont mind if i do 

Typical that Lincolnshire seems active for storms when I'm not there lol

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

Rotation on the left front of cell over Daventry.

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Screenshot_20210707-134108_Chrome.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: North Hykeham, Lincoln
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Heat
  • Location: North Hykeham, Lincoln

Looking south from Lincoln!! 

092A7F6D-F270-47FB-A291-921E72DEE173.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Kimberley, Nottinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Kimberley, Nottinghamshire

Rumbles from a storm over Melton Mowbray

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy!
  • Location: Lincolnshire Coast
9 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

Let me guess.... Storms in Lincoln? *checks radar*. Storms in Lincoln. Of course. 

And just having one with biblical rain over Cleethorpes now. Seems to be getting even more muggy too.

Cheers Glenn

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy!
  • Location: Lincolnshire Coast

And just like that, someone turns the tap off. Unreal.

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Posted
  • Location: BRIGHTON, EAST SUSSEX and MAIDENHEAD, BERKSHIRE
  • Location: BRIGHTON, EAST SUSSEX and MAIDENHEAD, BERKSHIRE

So, yesterday I believe to have caught what looks like a funnel cloud over the outskirts of Windsor. 
 

At around 17:30 a large anvil topped formation was heading towards Dorney from a SW direction. 

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Then exactly half an hour later (18:00) this formation was passing over Dorney. I noticed some upward motion  at the cloud base and what looked to be a funnel cloud started to form. The funnel cloud only lasted around 2 or so minutes.

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If you look at the structure above I would hazard to say there is a mesocyclone present. Although, the atmosphere wasn’t particular potent in terms of energy, the shear environment was adequate for such a system to form.

 

 

Edited by Superstormuk
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Torrential shower passing through here with a couple of dull rumbles of thunder heard over the din of the rain. Seems we missed the storm centre here but it is another thunder day chalked up at least. garden getting a great watering!  

 

20210707_163137.jpg

Edited by Steel City Skies
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
snapshot.php?alias=60017a8065a0b
HUNSTANTON.WEBCAM

Watch a live video webcam of the main beach and promenade in Hunstanton, on the North-West Norfolk coast, in the UK.

Hunstanton looks to be nearly flooding. Possibly more storms lining up to hit there soon again too. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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